AHC: The 300 Spartans decisively win the Battle of Thermopylae

it could be entirely possible that they'd get reinforcements; after the Carneia festival ends, the Spartans could send the entirety of their military to Thermopylae. it was because of that that only Leonidas and the 300 (as well as a much larger number of Phoceans, including helots)

How long would that take? I'm unsure of the length of the Karneia. And the Spartans may have assumed that Leonidas and them were already dead, given the length of time it would take to get word back.

Of course, if you delayed the Persians invasion by quite some time (spotty entrails or two-headed black cats or something) you might avoid the Karneia altogether and Sparta could move with her whole strength.
 
it could be entirely possible that they'd get reinforcements; after the Carneia festival ends, the Spartans could send the entirety of their military to Thermopylae. it was because of that that only Leonidas and the 300 (as well as a much larger number of Phoceans, including helots)

But how long will it take for the festival to end, the troops to be assembled and prepared, and actually arrive?
 
But how long will it take for the festival to end, the troops to be assembled and prepared, and actually arrive?
considering that the Greeks only lost 4000 men compared to the Persians' 20000 (according to Herodotus, who AFAIK is the only source for casualties at Thermopylae) and a minimum of 1400 of those Greeks were in the final battle after encirclement (there may have been a few hundred others in teh final battle), and the highest estimates for the total number of soldiers was just over 11000, i think they would be able to last out for a while longer

furthermore, the exact date of the Battle of Thermopylae is a little unclear; it could have been in August or September; for the purposes of discussion, i'm going to assume August 7 (the earliest date given on Wikipedia). the battle lasted for three days, which would mean that it went to about August 10 at the latest (again, if it started on August 7 of 480 BC). the Carneia festival took place from Carneus 7 to 15 (August, basically). if someone sent a messenger to Sparta after the festival was over asking for reinforcements, i'd say that they could conceivably arrive in time, if the Greeks kept playing defensively, though the Spartan army and any other allies would likely arrive to a grim situation
 
considering that the Greeks only lost 4000 men compared to the Persians' 20000 (according to Herodotus, who AFAIK is the only source for casualties at Thermopylae) and a minimum of 1400 of those Greeks were in the final battle after encirclement (there may have been a few hundred others in teh final battle), and the highest estimates for the total number of soldiers was just over 11000, i think they would be able to last out for a while longer.

furthermore, the exact date of the Battle of Thermopylae is a little unclear; it could have been in August or September; for the purposes of discussion, i'm going to assume August 7 (the earliest date given on Wikipedia). the battle lasted for three days, which would mean that it went to about August 10 at the latest (again, if it started on August 7 of 480 BC). the Carneia festival took place from Carneus 7 to 15 (August, basically). if someone sent a messenger to Sparta after the festival was over asking for reinforcements, i'd say that they could conceivably arrive in time, if the Greeks kept playing defensively, though the Spartan army and any other allies would likely arrive to a grim situation

If we're using Herodotus's figures for casualties, we should use his for the number of combatants as well - which gives us 5,200 Greeks.

Or from the main article, 7,000 odd.

For 5,200 men, at 2,500 odd in three days (2-3,000), that means it would take around a week (total) to wipe out the entire force. Assuming that it doesn't fight to the death in its entirety, even less.

And that still leaves "how long to get the army ready to go and to reach that point?"

I have a feeling that it would be entirely too easy for reinforcements to arrive just in time to be killed by the advancing Persians.
 
well remember, at least 1400 of them died in the final engagement when they were completely encircled, all of those men died (or very nearly all of them), and the majority of the Greeks had retreated by then. those men, including Leonidas, would still be alive for a while longer without the encirclement. if we use Herodotus' estimates for the soldiers, that means that they would still probably have two or three thousand soldiers left by the fourth day. if we want to be generous, then they could still have about 9000 soldiers left by the fourth day (Herodotus didn't account for the number of Locrians, while Pausanias did)
 
You can't really rely on Herodotus for numbers at all. He relied on unreliable secondary witnesses and guesses which were completely unscientific and without access to Persian numbers. The Persian Army had a size closer to 70,000-100,000; Persian inscriptions do not hint at anything conceivably larger for Grand armies during this period.
 
What if King Leonidas I and his 300 Spartans not only made it out alive, but decisively won against the Persians, killed Xerxes in combat, and possibly conquered all of the Persian Empire afterwards? What are the chances of this happening?

Making it out alive, hard but doable.
Decisively win against persians, near impossible barring incredibly unreason circumstances.
Killing Xerxes, see above, especially since Greek tactics aren't well suited to kill a general who if he is even on the battlefield isn't on the front lines or on foot.
Conquering all of Persia? Ridiculous and insane. That is quite literally impossible for them to do even with the intervention of Ares and Athena's lovechild who has all the brains of Athena but the brawn of Ares.

The only reason we even remember this pointless and innefective delaying action is because it was dramatic enough that histories first blogger thought it would be cool to add to his list of greek badasses he tried to submit to cracked.
 
Making it out alive, hard but doable.
Decisively win against persians, near impossible barring incredibly unreason circumstances.
...
The only reason we even remember this pointless and innefective delaying action is because it was dramatic enough that histories first blogger thought it would be cool to add to his list of greek badasses he tried to submit to cracked.
The oracle had said that a Spartan king had to die for the Greeks to win, so if Leonidas survives Thermopylae, then either he or the other one has to be disposed of in some other way, within this short timeframe, otherwise Xerxes wins.
 
well remember, at least 1400 of them died in the final engagement when they were completely encircled, all of those men died (or very nearly all of them), and the majority of the Greeks had retreated by then. those men, including Leonidas, would still be alive for a while longer without the encirclement. if we use Herodotus' estimates for the soldiers, that means that they would still probably have two or three thousand soldiers left by the fourth day. if we want to be generous, then they could still have about 9000 soldiers left by the fourth day (Herodotus didn't account for the number of Locrians, while Pausanias did)

7,000-1,400(last stand)-3000(retreating men)-2,600. There's only so long that you can lose nearly a thousand men a day, and it's not just "killed" - it's "incapable of fighting" that reduces the number of Greeks in the area to effectively zero.


ImmortalImpi: Do we know if his Greek numbers are any more reliable?
 
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Based on their rate of march to Marathon 10 years earlier,The Spartan army would arrive at the pass 4 days after the Karneia. The Ephors had already ordered this, messages from Leonidas were unnecessary. The festival lasts a week and according to Wikepedia (Does anyone have what Herodotus says?) the decision for Leonidas to go to the pass was made during it. 4 days to march to the pass, Xerxes waits 4 days hoping the Hellenes disperse, it takes his army three days to clear the pass. At this point the festival is over, the Spartan morai are at Corinth and the Greek fleet will shortly evacuate Athens. No traitor or the Phokians defend the Anopia track and the Spartans, Corinthians, Boetians and Athenians plus the hoplites of lesser poleis are 3 days at most from the fight. In restricted ground with no threat to either flank 40,000 Spartan led hoplites are not going to lose. In fact those Phokians are going to be reinforced and the Anopia track used to storm the Persian camp, kill Xerxes and take his army in the rear as it is forced back toward the Asopus.

You want the Delphic Oracle? Stalled at the pass, Xerxes, out of peak and in an attempt to draw the Hellenic fleet off Artemision, orders his brother Masistes to take part of his army on Egyptian ships and burn Athens and Sparta. Lets give the Persians a sop, this is the only thing that goes as planned and the Hellenic fleet is also taken front and rear emerging from the Euboean channel.

"I have a feeling that it would be entirely too easy for reinforcements to arrive just in time to be killed by the advancing Persians." - Elfwine
Leonidas dismissed most of the Hellenes bar the Boetians on seeing the position was lost. They would reach the Hellenic main force before Xerxes' army, which would in all probability array for battle at... Chaeronea, where another Asiatic host would come to grief 300 years later. Xerxes is no Mithradates, certainly not a Phillip, Mardonius is no Alexander and neither of them are commanding Heteroi and Pezheteroi. And even Phillip I think would have balked if there had been 9000 Spartans in the field as well that day in 338.

Pointless delaying action? No cork in the bottle, Xerxes has seven days march on the Hellenes. Recall, it is four days march to Sparta and the Boetians would have cut their losses and joined him. The Isthmus of Corinth isn't fortified as yet and, check Thucydides, the Peloponnese is wide open to sea-borne raiding.

Possibly conquering the Persian Empire? Well that might be unlikely, but if Athens and Sparta have been razed? If the poulations have been massacred? If Achaemenes and Masistes are fighting a civil war and major bits of the Empire are in revolt? That might be provocation and opportunity enough. They might be too divided and quarrelsome to hold it, but to burn it down, enslave, massacre and have done? See Xenophon for just how invulnerable a Hellenic army of similar composition in the middle of Asia could be. And they were without friends or logistic support!
 
Oh please stop. Such utter Hellanic wanking I have not seen in a while. Spartan forces had been invalidated at Leuctra and their military prowess had been declining since the Peloponnesian war. The armies of Philip were far more powerful, united, and flexible than those of the Greeks, and didn't have the issue of literally only caring about themselves and not actually knowing how to get to the east past Sardis.

Xenophon's army is again an entirely different story from the Persian Wars armies. It's really quite silly to assume that anyone would even attempt to go past Sardis and Hallicarnassus.

ImmortalImpi: Do we know if his Greek numbers are any more reliable?

Perhaps. Thing is, Herodotus is a bottleneck of citations; a lot of the numbers go back to him. So most later historians base their numbers on his. I think he isn't too off on the Greeks; after all, he knew how their armies worked considering he had been in several battles. He may have reasonable estimates based off records and eyewitnesses, as well as soldiers. Would be much easier.
 
What if King Leonidas I and his 300 Spartans not only made it out alive, but decisively won against the Persians, killed Xerxes in combat, and possibly conquered all of the Persian Empire afterwards? What are the chances of this happening?

Zero.
Thermopylae's importance is primarily symbolic. As such, it is IMMENSELY important, but there was no way in fiddlestick Leonidas could have won. Although battles are not always won or lost because of numbers, they are when the numbers are so overwhelming as they are in this case.

The real battle in which everything hang in the balance, was Plataea, the year after, in which the Greeks were also outnumbered, but not by the same insane magnitudes.
Civilization has much to give thanks to Sparta for, even though it isn't PC to admit it, because of the way Spartan society was organized.

A Greek conquest of Persia is out of the question, though, until someone unites the Greek city states, like Alexander did.....with Sparta being the noticable exception! Even OTL was exceedingly unlikely.
Btw, Sparta's reported response to Alexander's father when he threatened Sparta is BOSS :D

Philip II of Macedon said:
You are advised to submit without further delay, for if I bring my army into your land, I will destroy your farms, slay your people, and raze your city.

Sparta said:
 
Deadtroopers: Okay, so what day of the Carnea are you treating day one of the battle as being?

Trying to compare your calculations to mine.
 
Zero.
Thermopylae's importance is primarily symbolic. As such, it is IMMENSELY important, but there was no way in fiddlestick Leonidas could have won. Although battles are not always won or lost because of numbers, they are when the numbers are so overwhelming as they are in this case.

The real battle in which everything hang in the balance, was Plataea, the year after, in which the Greeks were also outnumbered, but not by the same insane magnitudes.
Civilization has much to give thanks to Sparta for, even though it isn't PC to admit it, because of the way Spartan society was organized.

A Greek conquest of Persia is out of the question, though, until someone unites the Greek city states, like Alexander did.....with Sparta being the noticable exception! Even OTL was exceedingly unlikely.
Btw, Sparta's reported response to Alexander's father when he threatened Sparta is BOSS :D

If Athens and Sparta had cooperated after the Second War, Athens' abortive liberation of Egypt might have gotten somewhere. Not that it's likely, just that defeating Persia on a huge scale was possible before Alexander.
 
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