AHC: The 1973 Afghan coup de'tat never happens

The 1973 Afghan coup de'tat created the conditions for the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan which led to not only the rise of the Taliban, but also for Osama Bin Laden to become a prominent figure in jihadist circles, which allowed for the creation of Al-Qaeda and as a result, 9/11 and the War on Terror.

So, what would need to happen for this coup to not happen? Would the King have to step down voluntarily before a coup happens, etc?
 

raharris1973

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AK-84 posted some arguments about why a continuation of the King’s rule would not be all smiles and sunshine. The King brought troubles on himself and his country through “Pakhtunistan” claims on Pakistani territory.
 

Khanzeer

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AK-84 posted some arguments about why a continuation of the King’s rule would not be all smiles and sunshine. The King brought troubles on himself and his country through “Pakhtunistan” claims on Pakistani territory.
That was an age old demand of Afghanistan
Ever since first creation of Pakistan
 

raharris1973

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That was an age old demand of Afghanistan
Ever since first creation of Pakistan

Which kind of screwed over Afghanistan economically, since Pakistan, their most direct outlet to the sea, closed access in retaliation. This forced economic reliance on the USSR for export-import routes welll before the communist takeover and resulted in an Afghan bias towards "study abroad" in the USSR heavy enough to help set the stage for eventual communist takeover.
 
AK-84 posted some arguments about why a continuation of the King’s rule would not be all smiles and sunshine. The King brought troubles on himself and his country through “Pakhtunistan” claims on Pakistani territory.

Which kind of screwed over Afghanistan economically, since Pakistan, their most direct outlet to the sea, closed access in retaliation. This forced economic reliance on the USSR for export-import routes welll before the communist takeover and resulted in an Afghan bias towards "study abroad" in the USSR heavy enough to help set the stage for eventual communist takeover.

Wasn't it Daoud Khan that was most obsessed with Pashtunistan, not Zahir Shah?
 
AK-84 posted some arguments about why a continuation of the King’s rule would not be all smiles and sunshine. The King brought troubles on himself and his country through “Pakhtunistan” claims on Pakistani territory.

Can you give me a link please?


Wasn't it Daoud Khan that was most obsessed with Pashtunistan, not Zahir Shah?

Yeah, I thought so too. According to my research, Zahir Shah asked Daoud Khan to resign due (among other reasons) to a blockade imposed by Pakistan due to Khan sending Afghan troops across the Durand Line into Pakistani territory to claim that territory as part of 'Pashtunistan'
 

raharris1973

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I will get back to you on this after looking up a couple threads and other resources. I was under the impression there were two periods of Daoud Khan, in his earlier period 1950s he was anti-Pakistani, but his post-coup post-royal regime (1970s) had a rapprochement.
 
The 1973 Afghan coup de'tat created the conditions for the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan which led to not only the rise of the Taliban, but also for Osama Bin Laden to become a prominent figure in jihadist circles, which allowed for the creation of Al-Qaeda and as a result, 9/11 and the War on Terror.
This seems to me like one of the PODs that could have the greatest effects on the late 20th and early 21st century.

To expand on what could change. No Soviet invasion means no economic and morale drain on the Soviet Union. No US led opposition to the invasion means the training and funding networks set up to arm and direct the Mujahideen do not happen, or maybe happen differently. So all the foreign fighters who became hardened and radicalized in the war do not happen. All the jihadi groups that went back to their home countries, of simply moved to a different part of the world, Like Abu Sayaf packing up wholesale and moving to the Philippines, does not happen. The endless civil war in Afghanistan that kept raising the bar on despair and radicalism does not happen. Without the Saudi and Gulf state funding channels that the Afghan war prototyped, the Syrian civil war may happen differently or not at all. In short, radical Islam as we know it could be butterflied away, or at least be much more fringe. Of course the US occupation of Afghanistan would likely not happen, and most likely the second Gulf War and occupation of Iraq.

If you are thinking of writing a timeline in this setting, I would be very interested in reading it.
 
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