AHC: Surviving Sibir

You need to keep Siberia free of the influence of more populous and organized states. This is going to be very difficult, given that by the time the Khanate of Sibir was founded in the 15th century (the POD) Russia was clearly in the ascendant over the Tatars and the main obstacle to their expansion east, Kazan, is about to crumble. On their own there's no way Sibir can resist the Russians for any length of time given their advantage in technology (guns), organization and numbers.
 
A necessary correlary to this is probably at-least that the golden horde still continues, from there they can survive as vassals to the more powerful Golden Horde (which centralizes and sedantizes over time rather than their OTL colapse and conquest). Of course I'm at a loss for how to do/I] that but it should be possible.
 

PhilippeO

Banned
One wise, old and son-less Khan of Sibir 'adopt' the Tsar of Russia as Heir. Russian Tsar later presserve Khanate of Sibir as personal union, with personally appointed viceroy, to counter the influence of Duma.
 
Vassalization

A Khan of Sibir could have a sudden moment of foresight and decide to become a Russian vassal before the Russian start to be too invasive on their own, let's say mid 1500. Maybe in one of the several dynastic struggles that plagued the Khanate one of them gets Russian help in exchange for a fair degree of subordination. Better terms can be obtained if done before or immediately after Kazan's fall, when the Russians are still unable to move in force. That would give Sibir some respite and a bit more stability. Population might be bolstered accepting Tatars from Kazan and Astrakhan after Russian conquest.
The Khan then becomes a sort of very loosely controlled Russian viceroy for everything East of the Urals, though I expect he will have to let some Orthodox Russians to settle (especially in the North).

Fast forward to the Time of Troubles, you a have a much stronger Khanate with better tech (Russian influx) more population and a somewhat stabler policy. I see two possibilities:
1) They profit of Russian weakness to revolt, win a battle or two, maybe ally with the Swedes. Not sure how the Troubles play out in the end with an active front in the East, but let's say the Romanovs still come out on top, though taking longer, with a weaker state and having to make more concessions (an outlet to the White Sea for Sweden, some piece of land more for Poland, and independence for Sibir). They are in no shape to take revenge on Sibir because of its defensive alliance (with the Ottomans or the Swedes or even the Poles) so instead the Tsar focuses on cracking down on his domestic Volga Tatars, a fair amount of which migrates again to Sibir bolstering population further and bringing expertise and some riches with them (think of the Spanish policies on the Moors as a loose parallel). The situation isn't really evened anyway, but for the time Russia have resolved enough of her other issues to consider conquering Sibir, the required committment would be major and possibly not worth the effort.
2) They stay out of the mess, but take advantage to negotiate and evenn better deal. Russia has still other things to think about and Sibir is largely left alone, though still paying its tribute in furs. Sibir slowly develops to the point that, when a Tsar decides to bring the Khan in line, the required committment would be major and possibly not worth the effort.
 
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