It's the beginning of a clusterfuck which left Poland-Lithuania the shadow of it's former self. Of course, the notion that Poland surviving to 1900 with huge territorial losses after that date is ASB is ridiculous and, frankly, quite insulting. It could have survived to 1900 with borders larger than 1939 even with a late XVIII century POD.
AHC: Surviving Poland by 1900?
- Thread starter RookieHistorian
- Start date
It's the beginning of a clusterfuck which left Poland-Lithuania the shadow of it's former self. Of course, the notion that Poland surviving to 1900 with huge territorial losses after that date is ASB is ridiculous and, frankly, quite insulting. It could have survived to 1900 with borders larger than 1939 even with a late XVIII century POD.
I think my idea fixes these problems.
1612: Minin and Pozharsky fail to take back the kremlin from Poland-Lithuania
Poland Lithuania chooses to allow Russians to practice choosing to slowly convert them rather than force convert as in OTL thus decreasing the likelyhood of major revolution.
Poland Lithuania has no major eastern rival as the tatars and cossacks are too disunified to compete with them.
Prussia remains an issue however polish-lithuania, after claiming tsardom in russia imports the idea of a strong autocratic state back home creating a stronger centralised govt and dealing with their squabbling nobility in manners similar to how Ivan the Great and successors dealt with the boyars. There is still a series of bloody wars but in the end Poland-Lithuania and Prussia both make it into the modern era, Prussia isn't able to expand and a unified Germany never exists, instead we get a bunch of squabbling rump states.
1612: Minin and Pozharsky fail to take back the kremlin from Poland-Lithuania
Poland Lithuania chooses to allow Russians to practice choosing to slowly convert them rather than force convert as in OTL thus decreasing the likelyhood of major revolution.
Poland Lithuania has no major eastern rival as the tatars and cossacks are too disunified to compete with them.
Prussia remains an issue however polish-lithuania, after claiming tsardom in russia imports the idea of a strong autocratic state back home creating a stronger centralised govt and dealing with their squabbling nobility in manners similar to how Ivan the Great and successors dealt with the boyars. There is still a series of bloody wars but in the end Poland-Lithuania and Prussia both make it into the modern era, Prussia isn't able to expand and a unified Germany never exists, instead we get a bunch of squabbling rump states.
informationfan
Banned
Hi,
hello,
no problem - you just need to change the whole world to avoid that poland is crushed... just remember, a poland in the borders of 1939...
maybe the people should think about this.
we do not discuss the chance of poland survive after 1772, just that is HUGE and powerfull... to be so powerfull and huge it need to destroy any neighbors that historically used it as punshball... if you want to change this, why not? move it to asb and fine
again, if you move the starting date of this plot, you can create a strong poland, its problem is, like the later germany, it is in the middle of europe, so every neigbour want to make it small so it cannot dominate the neighbours... why should the poles have more luck with it?
the dutch survived cause they were unimportant for the big players (and easily to defend), so the french or brits used it instead of taking it...
poland, on the other hand is in central europe - it can´t protect its long borders, it has not the manpower to fight endless wars and - like the later germany can easily blocked... so either this poland is the megasuperpower, have taken european part of russia and/or germany or it will be crushed - or it will survive as an unimportant punshball...
but a big local power? no - simply no. This is nothing about pride or honor, just maths and historical results.
explain how such BIG poland (again, at last 85% of 1939-poland, so you have parts in the east and large areas, less in germany (still a BIG problem, cause the germans will in some time destroy the polish empire, with or without the prussians) or you take the most of germany, but with this you have a mixed structure, germanics and slaws, this didn´t work in rtl, just think about austria-hungaria, how should this survive if this had absorbed complete germany, parts of the dutch, french, scandinavians... it was just fragile.. in the moment nationalism rise it is gone... why should poland, call it Greatpoland survive this fate? Cause they are poles? is this something you can eat? no - nationalism kills every multiethnic nation... only if ALL of europe is one nation, you could have sucsess (the usa are the single example for this, basically because the neighbours are to weak and it is one fragging continent, but if russia would be to the north and china to the south, long borders.... you get the point?) can survive?
If you get to a certain size you need to decide... big empire or weak punshball... if you are in central europe you have to decide... large regional power doesn´t work... you can´t hide (like the brits in the time they fought all the civil wars)...
informationfan
Banned
interesting... so you basically avoid democracy, nationalism, the modern world? how do you avoid it?
but true, you could do it, just explain why the rest of europe do not eat poland for lunch?
informationfan
Banned
as i wrote, the dutch survived because
a.) they are small... the BIG netherlands, owning northern germay, denmark, belgium and parts of france is something different, right?
Strong but to weak to win a war against germany and france... so this netherlands goes down cause it was to big...
habsburg empire goes down all the time, cause it couldn´t solve its internal problems... just tripple this and you get this poland...
russia, well, russia is the only example, if the russians do not move across the ural and to the south, russia could fall... here i agree. but again, you have a lot more BIG nations, to far from the hot places to be important, but still powerfull... similar to rome in the second century... the parthians and the other guys exist, could do damage but only if unified can beat rome...
but poland is not rome...
to make it clear: the plot can´t work - either poland will be superpower (super-asb) or it will go down after some years of power and force
do we agree that 1700 is to late for such powerful poland? what time could be possible?
1500? 1650? how should a powerfull central european dominating nation survive?
would you also agree that a unified germany, say in 1660 could dominate europe and the world? if no, why not?
hope you get the point!
informationfan
Banned
sure, if the marsians come to their help
maybe you can explain how poland survive with borders LARGER as 1939 survive to 1900... if the plot starts in 1772 (later poland doesn´t exist, so i suggest you take this date)
please do not wank and do not use asb (the marsians i mentioned)
thank you
It appears that you believe what happened in OTL is destined to happen in ATL, that nations that didn't succeed in OTL can't succeed in ATL or that nations that succeeded in OTL will succeed in ATL.
Why should the Germans be interested in expanding into the East like Prussia did?
Nationalism is base on national pride not on ethnicity. Nationalism kills multiethnic nations when the ethnic groups in it don't relate to the nation. By your reasoning that Nationalism kills multiethnic nations, the USA would not be a continent-spanning nation but a hodgepodge of smaller Dutch, French, Spanish, English and potentially Native American nations. Same thing with Germany, Russia, Spain, France, England, Italy, China; they are not made of one ethnic group, but multiple.
Show me a scenario that lets the HRE become unified by 1660. At that time it was dominated by competing states that didn't want the others to overpower them.
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Nationalism is only just developing around this time. Once you have a strong central leader you will have a national identity form around him. The Polish-Lithuanian-Russia becomes Poland... or Russia... or Lithuania... or comes up with a new name for itself that the citizens like. They sholdn't have too much of an issue with Russian nationalism as Russians have a long history of being ok with being dominated. Eventually Muscovy will become more Catholic as Orthodox true beleivers continue to defect to the cossacks and tatars as was already happening during the TOT in OTL.
As for the rest of europe, from my understanding Poland was later devided by Russia and Prussia. With no Russia this is way less likely especially since poland in the 1700 wont be a beurocratic nightmare as in OTL. Infact with the adoption of an autocratic state and added population/resourses/territory etc. I find it unlikely that Prussia could ever consolidate its territory and become a world power. In OTL Prussia mostly got lucky but here they are cut of from the rest of the HRE and don't really have the chance to expand.
Infact if anyone is going to be a rival to poland its going to be the Swedes who will maintain controll of norhtern russia. its going to be a series of naval battles in the baltic rather than land wars in Germany that efine northern and central europe.
oh and i should say i avoid democracy and the modern world the same way russia did up until 1917 
perhaps Poland will have a communist revolution about that same time?
perhaps Poland will have a communist revolution about that same time?Why would they need more luck? OTL Germany did fairly well at "not being destroyed" the first time.
Or it will survive as a middle weight power which can defend itself, and doesn't have endless wars anymore than any other state has.
Why would they destroy it? Why would "the Germans" be one nation (or several with shared aims)?
And 1939 Poland extends less far east than OTL Poland-Lithuania at its height.
Why doesn't it work? You're treating it as if the only choices are hegemony (leading to self-destruction) or destruction, it can't possibly hold its own and hold together.
informationfan
Banned
well, if you had read my comments you could have learned that i made certain comments
a.) the usa had sucsess (partly, if you think about little italy, the irish guys, chinatown, the colored people or the mexican habitants you could really question this) because it had no neighbours that had been a danger...
b.) no, not every time happen anything like in otl... i never said so.
but - big but - poland is not like the usa. So no poland as big as 85% of 1939-poland can survive - if you use a plot late (like 1805 with napoleon) the nationalism is far beyond hope, no prussian or pommern guy will be a pole or feel polish..., or for that all the people of todays russia this poland own will see themself as poles, too), so you have a minority of poles in this area and around you have much more unfriendly/hatefull people that want their own language (important) and national will back. Esp if you have a backyard-nation like poland (it was in the 18th century very backwards orientated)
if you move the plot to the past you have the problem that germany had after 1871... it is to big AND to small, to big to be unnoticed but to small to win the wars it has to fight.
say in 1648 such a poland comes to exist... it take basically the role of austria-hungaria, taking a lot land of russia - russia will not forget
the osmans couldn´t be an ally, cause of the religion, the people this poland hold aren´t poles and do not speak the same language - this is also important. slawic and germanic languages are totally different, you have no common language... one important difference to the usa (even if this change in the moment, in 40 years spanish is more important as english in the usa)
this "powerful" poland has to survive 350 years... how should they do it with enemies in the own country? the russians, the prussians, the saxonians (as long as the polish king doesn´t care about how the people of saxonia talk and act it is no problem, but in the second nationalism rise this is gone.. saxonia is not part of poland and never will be. Only with a genocide and resettlement you change this.
Sure - if you use 800, that was my year, you can change such things... wipe out a lot germanic tribes, so only slawic people life in these areas, that works. but only for a certain time, poland so big cannot survive 1200 years, not even rome achived this.
informationfan
Banned
nope - they have not the same language, same religion, so it is asb
prussia isn´t the problem, esp. the "Modern east prussia"... the problem is the powerfull nation in central/east europe, that is something the others around will change.
show me one nation with three/four religious groups and basically different "races" (slawic and germanic heritage) that could survive in this scenario... from 1648...
but in 1700 it isn´t possible.. just think about poland 1939... basically large parts of prussia are needed by poland, slesia (how do you reach this, do you start a genocide?), and white russia... this are areas with complete different people, its like "germany take france and this german nation absorb the french without being destroyed by internal problems"... that cannot happen.
you need - in this times - the same religon (failed), same language (failed), same heritage (failed)... if you have slawic kings that try to unify the "nation" it is failed, if you have independent "nations" with a polish king, that works untill nationalism start... under no circumstances can you change the 1700-russians to loyal polish catholics or protestant prussians, that doesn´t work
so your nation is very instable, only by brutal force it can be hold together... you deny the modern times, the french revolution or people like jj rousseau, latest with this BOOMMM...
we do not talk about the enemies that lay around
no - poland cannot survive in any timelines without a genozide (killing all non poles could work, for some time) or asb.
explain how you solve the different languages, esp. with the very intolerant polish people of this time... not educated they did a lot progromes against the jews... what will they do with protestants or orthodox people?
hell, the only country that could absorb different religions in this time is prussia, but not as being part of a supressing system
Actually, the Roman Empire - measuring from Augustus to the fall of Constantinople to the Latin Crusaders is a little over twelve hundred years (27 BC to 1204 AD).
Poland only has to survive from 960-1900+ (Mieszko I on) - 940 years, not much different than say France (for convenience sake, Hugh Capet on - so 987-1900+).
Just wanted to point out some basic errors in history.
If France, despite all its problems in that period, could do as well as it did, a Poland that was smaller than it was at its height (counting the Commonwealth as a continuation of Poland) in 1900 is not particularly difficult if certain things happen that could most certainly have happened.
Austria-Hungary managed to survive past 1900, so even if Poland fails as badly as it did it still meets the challenge.
Your statement that the state most notoriously tolerant of different religions including the Jews was "very intolerant" defies belief, unless you come from another timeline.
Poland only has to survive from 960-1900+ (Mieszko I on) - 940 years, not much different than say France (for convenience sake, Hugh Capet on - so 987-1900+).
Just wanted to point out some basic errors in history.
If France, despite all its problems in that period, could do as well as it did, a Poland that was smaller than it was at its height (counting the Commonwealth as a continuation of Poland) in 1900 is not particularly difficult if certain things happen that could most certainly have happened.
Austria-Hungary managed to survive past 1900, so even if Poland fails as badly as it did it still meets the challenge.
Your statement that the state most notoriously tolerant of different religions including the Jews was "very intolerant" defies belief, unless you come from another timeline.
informationfan
Banned
oh and i should say i avoid democracy and the modern world the same way russia did up until 1917
hi,
but you need to take over russia to survive as large as you are... you are to small to survive... with modern world i meant more or less the french revolution, nationalism and such funny things... maybe a look to the map about what area we speak could help?
A question on Polish survival that does come up.
What would it take for the necessary reforms to happen?
That is, what kind of environment would have to be achieved for (to use one everyone else relied on) strong kings making a strong kingdom to be possible?
Poland's kings seem to have not had a sufficient power base separate from the nobility to beat them down, either in terms of crown demense or burghers as an alternative to magnates.
At least, that's how it looks by the point the Commonwealth is really rotting from within. But was this so true in the 1300s? Or even the 1500s?
What would it take for the necessary reforms to happen?
That is, what kind of environment would have to be achieved for (to use one everyone else relied on) strong kings making a strong kingdom to be possible?
Poland's kings seem to have not had a sufficient power base separate from the nobility to beat them down, either in terms of crown demense or burghers as an alternative to magnates.
At least, that's how it looks by the point the Commonwealth is really rotting from within. But was this so true in the 1300s? Or even the 1500s?
Hawke
Banned
My option is Napoleon's victory scenario.
First in 1812-1813 when he changes his tactics to favour building up logistical lines while spending winter in Smolensk. Poland is restored to some semblance of its shape after First Partition.
After this another war is plotted by by Russia,Prussia and England. Unfortunately Austria betrays them and changes sides during its start, while France uses information gained from Austrians for pre-emptive attack against Prussia.
The Congress of Paris in 1818 makes several changes to European continent.
Austria gains Silesia, while returning most of Galicia to Polish kingdom, now under the rule of Louis Nicolas Davout. Cossack Hetmanate is established on territories of former Russian Ukraine(similar to its previous shape that did not go into Galicia).
Sweden gains territories of Finland, Estonia and Latvia.
Kingdom of Rhine is formed out of Rhine Confederation, but without Saxony, whose ruler gains Duchy of Danzig as compensation for Duchy of Warsaw(very profitable).
The Napoleon's system of power in Europe contains Russia with Sweden, Hetmanate and Poland.
It doesn't dominate it completely since Austria remains a major state with acquisition of Silesia, and Prussia becoming its puppet.
While there is much turmoil and political uprisings the system is stable enough to remain in place till second half of XIX century. While there are worker's and peasants uprisings and Kingdom of Rhine gains independence from French Empire the Polish state remains and with strong alliance with Swedish Kingdom is able to overcome its potential Russian rival.
Prussia btw is merged into Germany during war with Austria in late 80s(Austria,Saxony versus Rhine,Sweden Poland, with French material support only due to worker uprisings).Rest of Prussia is part of new German state, while East Prussia and Gdańsk become part of Poland.
First in 1812-1813 when he changes his tactics to favour building up logistical lines while spending winter in Smolensk. Poland is restored to some semblance of its shape after First Partition.
After this another war is plotted by by Russia,Prussia and England. Unfortunately Austria betrays them and changes sides during its start, while France uses information gained from Austrians for pre-emptive attack against Prussia.
The Congress of Paris in 1818 makes several changes to European continent.
Austria gains Silesia, while returning most of Galicia to Polish kingdom, now under the rule of Louis Nicolas Davout. Cossack Hetmanate is established on territories of former Russian Ukraine(similar to its previous shape that did not go into Galicia).
Sweden gains territories of Finland, Estonia and Latvia.
Kingdom of Rhine is formed out of Rhine Confederation, but without Saxony, whose ruler gains Duchy of Danzig as compensation for Duchy of Warsaw(very profitable).
The Napoleon's system of power in Europe contains Russia with Sweden, Hetmanate and Poland.
It doesn't dominate it completely since Austria remains a major state with acquisition of Silesia, and Prussia becoming its puppet.
While there is much turmoil and political uprisings the system is stable enough to remain in place till second half of XIX century. While there are worker's and peasants uprisings and Kingdom of Rhine gains independence from French Empire the Polish state remains and with strong alliance with Swedish Kingdom is able to overcome its potential Russian rival.
Prussia btw is merged into Germany during war with Austria in late 80s(Austria,Saxony versus Rhine,Sweden Poland, with French material support only due to worker uprisings).Rest of Prussia is part of new German state, while East Prussia and Gdańsk become part of Poland.
Well, any king attempting to do that would face magnate rebellion, like Zebrzydowski Rebellion for example. To be successful, such king would have best opportunity to act after such rebellion or after some disastrous war to which betrayal of some magnates contributed (Deluge). Under such circumstances king would have semi-casus beli to push for reforms, and some of lesser Szlachta may join him. This would require a lot of determination, which kings of PLC like Sigismund III, John II Casimir, or John III Sobieski, lacked despite opportunities.
Earlier you go, it would be easier since decentralisation grown over time. It's also easier later on, since in 18th century situation of Poland is dire, and elites are fully aware that keeping dysfunctional political system means doom.
Umm... the whole idea is that they take over russia... or rather that when they do take over russia as in OTL they do not lose it again. perhaps you should take a look here for what I am referencing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_Troubles
read the section subtitled struggle for independance.
as for the geography im pretty familiar... here is a map of poland-lithuania at that time period (a little later but pretty similar)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Rzeczpospolita2nar.png
as for the french revolution I don't see what that has to do with anything. Infact I see that as possibly being butterflied away in my scenerio (stronger catholic state in the east and no russia/germany is going to massivly change the outcomes of the war of austrian successian and 7 years war, putting france likely in a better situation avoiding that revolution entierly)
I would suggest you try reading/researching and understanding my posts before adopting such a condesending tone.
Austria-Hungary did OTL up until WWI. Im only trying to make it to 1900 if it dosn't survive past that so be it.
Now I confess nationalism will likely tear this nation appart about 1800 or so... but with prussia and russia not existing before this time without consolidation or the military/economic growth of OTL i can still imagine poland surviving until atleast 1910 if not the mid 1900s, I doubt they will be a major empire but... that wasn't the challange.