AHC: Suriname and French Guiana Join Brazil

It's pretty much like the title says – the challenge is to find ways for Suriname and French Guiana to become a part of Brazil. Ideally I was looking for post-1900 points of divergence but I'd settle for something earlier than that, e.g. French Guiana being given to Portugual after the Napoleonic Wars but with France receiving a 99-year lease, if it's the only viable option.
 
It's pretty much like the title says – the challenge is to find ways for Suriname and French Guiana to become a part of Brazil. Ideally I was looking for post-1900 points of divergence but I'd settle for something earlier than that, e.g. French Guiana being given to Portugual after the Napoleonic Wars but with France receiving a 99-year lease, if it's the only viable option.
It is feasible to get a Franco-Brazilian war in the 1950-1960s resulting in Guyane falling under Brazilian occupation, but the final result of that is likely to be Brazil getting nuked and Guyane returned with France, potentially with interest.
 
It is feasible to get a Franco-Brazilian war in the 1950-1960s resulting in Guyane falling under Brazilian occupation, but the final result of that is likely to be Brazil getting nuked and Guyane returned with France, potentially with interest.

there were a thread long time ago about this, the conclusion was that France (without nukes) will kick Brasil ass so hard that's not even funny
 
It's pretty much like the title says – the challenge is to find ways for Suriname and French Guiana to become a part of Brazil. Ideally I was looking for post-1900 points of divergence but I'd settle for something earlier than that, e.g. French Guiana being given to Portugual after the Napoleonic Wars but with France receiving a 99-year lease, if it's the only viable option.

You are trying to make Jânio Quadros blush?

It is feasible to get a Franco-Brazilian war in the 1950-1960s resulting in Guyane falling under Brazilian occupation, but the final result of that is likely to be Brazil getting nuked and Guyane returned with France, potentially with interest.

there were a thread long time ago about this, the conclusion was that France (without nukes) will kick Brasil ass so hard that's not even funny

There was no conclusion because everyone failed to find data about Brazil on the time, apart from someone that showed that Brazil didn't bought some jets. I for example commented that Brazil had some Ft17 stored and people simple concluded that the brazilian main tank was the FT17.

If there is a war and France calls EU, there is not even reason to invade because Quadros would retreat. If the war is between Brazil and France, then things get interesting. With alternate scenarios, just have France to fall for the nazis and a pro allied Brazil to occupy Guyana.

Edit: A brazilian page, "Hoje no mundo military" made a analysis of the plan, called "Operation Cabralzinho"


Brazil would advance with five motorized brigades, with a total of 2500 man, more than the french garrison on the French Guyana. According to the channel, that was more than the french garrison and more than enought to overrun the french province, plus the operation asked for in the months before the action they should begin infiltrating brazilian soldiers using the superior brazilian tactics on fighting on the forrest.

Then comes the french response, Jânio expected them to not react fully at first, he knew that De Gaulle was going to declare war but it would take time to assemble a fighting force due the Algerian front. With this two things come at hand: First, the brazilian army was expecting to coup the government for a while right now, they tried in 1954, 1955, 1957 and they would try again in 1961. The brazilian army didn't worked on loyalty, but in money, and so he De Gaulle could bribe some officers to remove Janio and restore a white peace. On the second scenario France can prepare a invasion and retake Guayana, the owner of the channel doesn't explain how the war would go, but he makes the point that the CIGS, the brazilian bureau reponsible for coordenating the operations on the forrest was only created in 1964. The main difference of this with the Falklands war is the fact that Guyana is not a island, and so you cannot starve the defenders, you need to assalt, and so we can conclude that France can win the war, they are the most likely side to win, but this is not fully garanteed and it would be dirtier than the falklands war.
 
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People generally talk about a Falklands-like War, but couldn't Brazil buy Suriname and/or French Guyana? This would avert major conflicts.
 
Having Brazil acquire French Guiana or Dutch Suriname in the 20th century is far too implausible. Brazil is unlikely to defeat France or the Netherlands in a military conflict. Even through peaceful means it's not too likely, because none of the parties involved would really be interested; it's not like Brazil is lacking in any strategically useful areas along its massive Atlantic coastline, and I don't think that the French or Dutch would see any gain from selling off their colonies to Brazil. I think the POD would have to be during colonial times, when the Portuguese Empire somehow annexes these territories for some reason.
 
The Axis wins World War 2 and Brazil is on the Axis side because handwaves. When Hitler reorganizes Europe, he decides that the Dutch are really low Germans and annexes the Netherlands. He partitions the Dutch colonies among his allies. The Japanese get Indonesia and the Brazilians get Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean islands. Brazil wants French Guinea, and the Germans persuade the French to swap Guinea for the former Dutch Caribbean islands.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
The Axis wins World War 2 and Brazil is on the Axis side because handwaves. When Hitler reorganizes Europe, he decides that the Dutch are really low Germans and annexes the Netherlands. He partitions the Dutch colonies among his allies. The Japanese get Indonesia and the Brazilians get Suriname and the Dutch Caribbean islands. Brazil wants French Guinea, and the Germans persuade the French to swap Guinea for the former Dutch Caribbean islands.
A Brazil is that joins the Axis will be defeated by the United States. A more likely scenario is Brazil joining the Allies and the USA encouraging Brazil to annex Suriname and French Guinea over the objection of the toothless governments-in-exile.
 
The French Guayana was actually under portuguese rule from 1809 until 1817, When it was returned to France after the congress of Viena.
The most plausible POD is that French Guayana would stay as a portuguese colony as an act of reparation of war (something like Namibia after WWI), the problem comes when Brazil becomes independent in 1822, Guyana is so far from everything that rebelions against the imperial rule of Pedro I might take place in that region, is hard to see if the Empire could keep the province until the 1840's.
A brazilian Guyana after that seems extremely unlikely, the husband of the Imperial Princess was French, and after the republic, Brazil would have zero chance on a war against any european power (UK, Germany and France)
 
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You are trying to make Jânio Quadros blush?





There was no conclusion because everyone failed to find data about Brazil on the time, apart from someone that showed that Brazil didn't bought some jets. I for example commented that Brazil had some Ft17 stored and people simple concluded that the brazilian main tank was the FT17.

If there is a war and France calls EU, there is not even reason to invade because Quadros would retreat. If the war is between Brazil and France, then things get interesting. With alternate scenarios, just have France to fall for the nazis and a pro allied Brazil to occupy Guyana.

Edit: A brazilian page, "Hoje no mundo military" made a analysis of the plan, called "Operation Cabralzinho"


Brazil would advance with five motorized brigades, with a total of 2500 man, more than the french garrison on the French Guyana. According to the channel, that was more than the french garrison and more than enought to overrun the french province, plus the operation asked for in the months before the action they should begin infiltrating brazilian soldiers using the superior brazilian tactics on fighting on the forrest.

Then comes the french response, Jânio expected them to not react fully at first, he knew that De Gaulle was going to declare war but it would take time to assemble a fighting force due the Algerian front. With this two things come at hand: First, the brazilian army was expecting to coup the government for a while right now, they tried in 1954, 1955, 1957 and they would try again in 1961. The brazilian army didn't worked on loyalty, but in money, and so he De Gaulle could bribe some officers to remove Janio and restore a white peace. On the second scenario France can prepare a invasion and retake Guayana, the owner of the channel doesn't explain how the war would go, but he makes the point that the CIGS, the brazilian bureau reponsible for coordenating the operations on the forrest was only created in 1964. The main difference of this with the Falklands war is the fact that Guyana is not a island, and so you cannot starve the defenders, you need to assalt, and so we can conclude that France can win the war, they are the most likely side to win, but this is not fully garanteed and it would be dirtier than the falklands war.


Except French Guyana IS an island effectively, have you seen the place?

95% of it is Amazonian forest, the only way to reach it is from the sea, crossing the Oyapoc river (there is a bridge now, but it wasn’t finished until 2014, before that you would have needed boats, and of course you can only cross it near it’s mouth because the rest is jungle), or from the rivers inland, but then the invading army has to sail back up all its length, not even talking about the logistic nightmare of assembling an invasion force in a nearly uninhabited jungle hundreds of km away from any city.

France has the much superior navy, within weeks the Brazilian occupying force would be cut from Brazil, now, I do agree that If the Brazilian force flee inland they could be quite hard and ressource intense To dislocate, as well as affect tribes (including some uncontacted ones), which would be very regretful. But the coastal cities, the only thing that matters about Guyana at the time would be quickly liberated.
 
Except French Guyana IS an island effectively, have you seen the place?

95% of it is Amazonian forest, the only way to reach it is from the sea, crossing the Oyapoc river (there is a bridge now, but it wasn’t finished until 2014, before that you would have needed boats, and of course you can only cross it near it’s mouth because the rest is jungle), or from the rivers inland, but then the invading army has to sail back up all its length, not even talking about the logistic nightmare of assembling an invasion force in a nearly uninhabited jungle hundreds of km away from any city.

France has the much superior navy, within weeks the Brazilian occupying force would be cut from Brazil, now, I do agree that If the Brazilian force flee inland they could be quite hard and ressource intense To dislocate, as well as affect tribes (including some uncontacted ones), which would be very regretful. But the coastal cities, the only thing that matters about Guyana at the time would be quickly liberated.

I had to quote a channel exactly because I was not to that place.

And it is not a island, not on the way that Timor, the Falklands or Madagaskar is, as troops can cross it using boats from the brazilian side and bridges can be built and rebuilt as they are destroyed and troops can still keep coming in.

I don't desagree that the coast can be taken by the french and with the whole rest of your point.
 
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