AHC: Superpower Hapsburg Empire post-1849

Rush Tarquin · May 14, 2012

Much like the other thread in post-1900. Three conditions:
-post-1849
-no Grossdeutschland
-control of Mackinder's Heartland

It should be a genuine superpower comparable with USA, USSR and 19thC Britain.

Elfwine · May 14, 2012

Not possible.

It might be possible for the Hapsburgs to be allied with Russia.

That's it. A superpower Austria*? It'd take more than I can think of to find a way after 1849 for Austria to be equal to OTL Germany, or even France.

Although it is nice to see people trying to make Austria stronger than OTL instead of a province of Germany, this is beyond Austria's means.

* And Bohemia, and Hungary, and anything else not yet lost.

wannis · May 14, 2012

Rush Tarquin said:
Three conditions:
-post-1849
-no Grossdeutschland
-control of Mackinder's Heartland

Under these conditions? ASB.

Marko · May 14, 2012

The Hapsburgs as a central european (super)power went down the drain the moment they decided in the 18th century to stop using Latin as the language of the state and implement the use of German. From that point on they are no longer seen as kings of various states under their rule who only happen to be germans but are started to be seen as german kings ruling over those kingdoms thus sparking centrifugal tendencies in non german speaking populations.

Rush Tarquin · May 14, 2012

Well you do have one hundred and fifty years to do it. Mild ASB is acceptable as long as it's not outright silly. Obviously the more plausible the better. There was the same initial reaction in the other thread but then people got on with it after they'd had their 'first post to say ASB' bragging rights.

Richter von Manthofen · May 14, 2012

If you reduce your requirements to "dominating" Great power - maybe...

1848 Russia "saved" Austrias butt when it suppressed the Hungarian revolution.

Lets assume Austria pays Russia back during the Krimean war instead of betraying its former ally.

Austria could then reasonably demand "something" for its help to Russia. - Maybe the lands that Astria got in the 3 partition of Poland (now Russian territory) - this would make a start...

Of course Austria must invent something to keep the different nationalities quiet.

So instead a Austrian Hungary we need something like United States of Austria.

Good terms with russian might lead to a more peaceful solution for the Balkans...

This would strengthen Austria internally. So Austria might go on colonial shopping instead of wasint itself on the Balkans in a struggle against Russia.

freivolk · May 14, 2012

You need more germans. We simply have no example fot a trully multinational Superpower. We have America, which "convertet" people of other Nations to become real american Patriots, we had the USSR with a strong russian-slavic-core (which felt apart, after this core was exhaustetet) and we have potential SP China and India, which are civilisations posing as Nationstates. I don´t see thats ist possible to convert the different Nations to an true Hapsburg-patriotism in a short term. So you need at least in the beginning a strong german core to keep the other nations in line. If no Great-Germany, then at least as much Germany as possible. Maybe a POD in 1850, were the Prussian Unionplans lead to an war between Austria and Prussia. Russia intervents on Austrias side and Prussia get trashed. Austria gets Silesia back and forms with the South Germans States and catolic areas in western Germany a new HRE. A protestant-prussian Rump-state stays independent and never joins the HRE. With the help of his new german subjects, Hapsburg can hold the other Nations in line. It stays allied with Russia, has propably a war with France, were it can win Elsaß-Lorraine and parts of Belgian. On long run, it propably develope a real National identity, propably catholic-conservative flavoreed. Then it has a war with Russia, were it gains Poland and the Ukraine, and then it have potential the ability to become a Superpower.

visvamba · May 14, 2012

I think for the Hapsburgs to become a superpower requires a revolution far more successful than the one of 1848. Austria is at this point to conservative to abandon monarchy. But perhaps the only way Austria can become a superpower is for the Habsburgs to lose the eastern half of their empire in a massive revolution. That means no Hungary, Poland and Balkans nationalities to devote resources to. That also means less civil strife and the rivalry with Russia - definitely we lose the immediate trigger for World War I

The revolutionary Austria would probably have the Habsburg Emperor as a mere figurehead in a democratic government. Like France post-1789, it would be a strongly nationalist country, and attempt to more fully integrate the Italian territories as well as Bohemia into a single nation. In France, revolution eventually brought great benefits to the army, and maybe the same would happen here.

A more nationalist Austria with fewer territories to hold on to might not give in so easily to France and Sardinia and would hold on to Lombardy while attempting to integrate other Italian states in their sphere of influence like Parma into the empire. Without the focus on the Balkans, Austrian power would be projected further outwards from Europe. Austria might participate in the scramble for Africa, for example, and try to keep the Nicobar Islands. In OTL they tried such a thing in 1858.

They would also try to project their power more into Germany, since now their Empire would consist of mostly German-speaking territories. Though I don't know how Prussia would feel about it

Imladrik · May 14, 2012

freivolk said:
It stays allied with Russia, has propably a war with France, were it can win Elsaß-Lorraine and parts of Belgian.

How gaining another rebellious area (Alsace-Moselle) with a lot of religious minorities (Protestant and Jews) would help Austria ? Frankly, i don't see why Alsace has to be incorporated in the randomid dominant Germanic state in every TL. It don't even speak German !

Grand Prince Paul II. · May 14, 2012

Imladrik said:
How gaining another rebellious area (Alsace-Moselle) with a lot of religious minorities (Protestant and Jews) would help Austria ? Frankly, i don't see why Alsace has to be incorporated in the randomid dominant Germanic state in every TL. It don't even speak German !

Rebellious? I have not heard of Alsace being a rebellious place.

It was a mostly catholic German-speaking area. An Austria-dominated Germany should be able to integrate it as long as it treats its people as equals.

wolf_brother · May 14, 2012

Drop the 'Hapsburg' part and it might be possible. You'd need a POD in the 1848-49 Revolutions though, not after.

EDIT: Here's what I have in mind, with the accompanying map I later made.

Imladrik · May 14, 2012

Grand Prince Paul II. said:
Rebellious? I have not heard of Alsace being a rebellious place.

It was a mostly catholic German-speaking area.

There never was an armed rebellion, but at the moment the Prussian army retreated in 1918, the French Republic was proclaimed. And it constantly elected "autonomist" (in fact french ratachist) MP to the bundestag.

Grand Prince Paul II. said:
It was a mostly catholic German-speaking area.

And it never spoke german. It spoke Alsatian, which is a dialect of Allemanisch, while Hochdeutsch is upper saxon in the written form spoken by northern german who spoke a language with some large differences.

Calling Alsatian German, is like calling Gascon (an occitan dialect) French.

And on the question of religion, Alsace is a multi-religious area. Even if the south was largely Catholic, even there Mulhouse was protestant. Due to the rule of one Prince, one religion and Alsace balkanization during the middle-age, Alsace is a patchwork of religion, with a lot of diversity in the north. Catholics maybe a majority, but they are close from being a plurality.

Rush Tarquin · May 15, 2012

Here's the oddly more prolific discussion post-1900!

Gerry10 · May 15, 2012

As many said, a stable alliance with Russia is vital.
And an early death of Bismark would also help.
But with so little time or better such a late POD the Austrian-Hungarian Monarchy has only one chance IMHO.
It needs to become an industrial powerhouse that rivals England and Germany.
It is industry and innovation that could make Austria a superpower.
That would require a big change in attitude towards new ideas esp.from the Emperor Franz Joseph but if a little ASB is okay...

If the KuK Monarchy makes use of its resouces and industrialises on a grand scale (like Prussia/Germany did or even more) and inventions in engineering, medicine and chemistry become Austrian ideas it would be a superpower within two generations, even without colonies.

King of Rome · May 15, 2012

If Austria could somehow manage a victory in the Austro-Prussian War, and hold on to its northern-Italian gem, it might have a chance at remaining a Great Power. Or, as mentioned above, if the Empire drops Hungary it might have a better shot at a move towards nationalization. A Cisleithania Austrian Empire might (and it is a big might) swallow up Southern German states.

In my opinion though, and this is part of the new thread I’m working on, if Austria can cut some of its losses and react with an iron fist during 1848, then it has the potential to have a greater impact on what was going in the German States of the time. Where one could go with that…

wolf_brother · May 15, 2012

King of Rome said:
If Austria could somehow manage a victory in the Austro-Prussian War, and hold on to its northern-Italian gem, it might have a chance at remaining a Great Power. Or, as mentioned above, if the Empire drops Hungary it might have a better shot at a move towards nationalization. A Cisleithania Austrian Empire might (and it is a big might) swallow up Southern German states.

In my opinion though, and this is part of the new thread I’m working on, if Austria can cut some of its losses and react with an iron fist during 1848, then it has the potential to have a greater impact on what was going in the German States of the time. Where one could go with that…

Er... the Hapsburgs did react with an iron fist to 1848, it was just rather delayed; though on the flip side of that, if they tried being aggressive too early they likely would have been dethroned and beheaded in the streets. I'm not quite sure what exactly you have in mind for Hapsburg absolutism surviving 1848 unscratched.

Elfwine · May 15, 2012

Gerry10 said:
As many said, a stable alliance with Russia is vital.
And an early death of Bismark would also help.
But with so little time or better such a late POD the Austrian-Hungarian Monarchy has only one chance IMHO.
It needs to become an industrial powerhouse that rivals England and Germany.
It is industry and innovation that could make Austria a superpower.
That would require a big change in attitude towards new ideas esp.from the Emperor Franz Joseph but if a little ASB is okay...
If the KuK Monarchy makes use of its resouces and industrialises on a grand scale (like Prussia/Germany did or even more) and inventions in engineering, medicine and chemistry become Austrian ideas it would be a superpower within two generations, even without colonies.

It did make use of its resources (and quite well, too) - it just doesn't have the same resources as Prussia-Germany to exploit regardless of the attitude of Franz Joseph.

King of Rome · May 15, 2012

In Vienna, perhaps, but if the quickly crushed the Italian Liberal movement and freed troops for Hungary, they could theoretically have a dissuading Counter-Revolutionary army at their capital's doorstep- much greater than what they had.

The imperial family fled Vienna, and during that period the city was put under siege and taken. I am saying if that process was accelerated and without hesitation, it could have freed Austria's arm for some German excursions.

wolf_brother · May 15, 2012

King of Rome said:
In Vienna, perhaps, but if the quickly crushed the Italian Liberal movement and freed troops for Hungary, they could theoretically have a dissuading Counter-Revolutionary army at their capital's doorstep- much greater than what they had.

The imperial family fled Vienna, and during that period the city was put under siege and taken. I am saying if that process was accelerated and without hesitation, it could have freed Austria's arm for some German excursions.

How do you propose that they crush the Italian and Hungarian revolutionaries without just inflaming further radicalization and revolution with their heavy-handed tactics? The best thing I can think of would be to nip the revolution in the bud before it really takes off, but once the Five Glorious Days of Milan happens there's really little chance to turn the tide without oceans of bloodloss.

King of Rome · May 15, 2012

True dat.

Well, I figure if Radetzky was given a free hand in Italy, the Northern Italians would not have a force to stop him, despite the Liberal sentiments. True, it might temporarily unify the Republicans, Monarchists, and the Fusion groups against the Austrians, they could not possibly field an equal to Radetzky's army in time. Venice would end up how they did, staying in their fantastic defensive position waiting for the battle to be decided in Lombardy. The Piedmont-Sardinian-Lombard Army would have to meet Radetzky somewhere, and would likely lose (likely).