AHC: Superpower/Greatpower Poland

After so much time spent lurking on these forums, I seemed to have developed a soft spot for poor poor Poland, stuck between the two monstrosities of Germany and Russia.

Hence, a challenge. With any PoD whatsoever after 1500, make Poland one of the greater powers in the world. What I mean by the term Greater Power:

-Germany OR Britain during WWI
 
You would likely need Poland having an acess to Atlantic to reach that power scale. I'm not sure if it's doable.

However, reaching WW1 Russia-scale can be done. Have Russia unification fail for some reasons, and Poland-Lithuania could grow eastwards gaining potential ressources.
It would work better with a 1400 POD however, in order to butterfly Moscovia rise.
 
You would likely need Poland having an acess to Atlantic to reach that power scale. I'm not sure if it's doable.

However, reaching WW1 Russia-scale can be done. Have Russia unification fail for some reasons, and Poland-Lithuania could grow eastwards gaining potential ressources.
It would work better with a 1400 POD however, in order to butterfly Moscovia rise.

But that's just Russia with with a Polish elite.

Perhaps the Polish–Lithuanian–Ruthenian Commonwealth actually works, which results in a 'Poland' that stretches from the Baltic to the Black seas.
 
But that's just Russia with with a Polish elite.
I wouldn't meant that Russia would have been absorbated by Poland. Just that Russia remain divided in statelets under Polish influence and that Poland takes the place of OTL Russia eastwards.

Perhaps the Polish–Lithuanian–Ruthenian Commonwealth actually works, which results in a 'Poland' that stretches from the Baltic to the Black seas.
Would it be enough to make Poland a Superpower? The size itself doesn't really help, and any projection power in Baltic and Black Sea can be easily blockaded.
 
Would it be enough to make Poland a Superpower? The size itself doesn't really help, and any projection power in Baltic and Black Sea can be easily blockaded.

Well, considering your own argument is to make Poland into an alt-Russia that "could grow eastwards gaining potential ressources."
 
Well, considering your own argument is to make Poland into an alt-Russia that "could grow eastwards gaining potential ressources."

You have more ressources in OTL Russia (minging, hydrocarbures) than western Ukraine, without counting on the proximity with Central Asia.
I know the odds aren't good, but I don't see how making Poland a global power without Atlantic access.
 
You have more ressources in OTL Russia (minging, hydrocarbures) than western Ukraine, without counting on the proximity with Central Asia.
I know the odds aren't good, but I don't see how making Poland a global power without Atlantic access.

And so going east, away from the Atlantic, takes care of that how?
 
I think Poland can have better chances if
1.Lower Silesia remains Polish speaking not just Upper Silesia, the Germanization was the result of Counter reformation, 30 years war and Silesian wars if all of Silesia remained majorly catholic, Poland will have all of Silesia later giving Poland industrialization later on.

2. No union of brest which made Poland-Lithuania have a problem with Russia
 
And so going east, away from the Atlantic, takes care of that how?

As going gradually east would be more easy than west regarding the forces of Poland, it could end with a Poland without direct access to Atlantic but with more ressources to compensate : coal, excellent agricultural lands, gaz, oil, etc.
 
Catilina, correct me if I am wrong, but I don't recall Germany having access to Atlantic ocean either...

Hamburg, Bremen, Emden...
Probably other, but I don't recall their names.

Plus a collection of Baltic harbours, less easily blockable than polish ones, but they are not directly on Atlantic.
 
Sigismund III Vasa could have done better and try to unite Poland and Sweden. I'm not sure would that be possible though. He could have also got Finland if he had concentrated his resources there as Finnish nobles preferred him to Duke Charles but that also is somewhat unlikely.
 
As going gradually east would be more easy than west regarding the forces of Poland, it could end with a Poland without direct access to Atlantic but with more ressources to compensate : coal, excellent agricultural lands, gaz, oil, etc.

Because there's none of those things in Ruthenia? Until the 20th century Eastern European petrol reserves were supplying most of the West. Hell one of the big reasons why the German war effort fell apart in WWI was because the Bulgarians signed a separate peace treaty with the allies earlier, on 29 Sept. And its certainly hard to say that the western Ukraine doesn't have extensive coal deposits or vast tracts of land suitable for agriculture.
 
If you don't want Poland/Lithuania turning into "Polarussia", then perhaps the best option is getting the rest of the German Baltic coast, and then somehow taking OTL Denmark, maybe with Sweden getting Scania and Norway. You then have a Poland with German and Danish minorities, yes, but also a significant North Sea frontage. That is not to say you wouldn't want to also see this power get a big chunk of Ukraine and the Balkans.
 

Derek Pullem

Kicked
Donor
Sigismund III Vasa converts to Lutheranism

Poland-Lithuania-Sweden survives and trashes Denmark

Other butterflies too many to mention but the Triple Union is so unwieldy it would take a bucketful of luck to survive.

Oops sorry general Tirpitz already mentioned this one.
 

MSZ

Banned
Wouldn't the PLC somehow not experiencing the partitions be something akin to Austria/Austro-Hungary? A large, multinational state ruled by the elites of only one nation, but slowly reforming to appeal to the other minorities (Ukrainians being the equivalent of Austria's Hungary?) And eventually the PLC turning into a Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian Empire?

I'm not sure if having access to the atlantic is even a necessary condition - OTL Courland had colonies, so to do that, Poland would only need Denmark's non-action. Not really a problem.

And besides, would colonies even be necessary? Poland could have all the land and resources it needs in the east, with a "natural border" with Russia on the Dnyepr and Daugava. If butterflies allow to somehow aquire upper silesia, it would even have coal and iron necessary for industrialization and become a great power simply by virtue of total population.
 
Wouldn't the PLC somehow not experiencing the partitions be something akin to Austria/Austro-Hungary? A large, multinational state ruled by the elites of only one nation, but slowly reforming to appeal to the other minorities (Ukrainians being the equivalent of Austria's Hungary?) And eventually the PLC turning into a Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian Empire?

I'm not sure if having access to the atlantic is even a necessary condition - OTL Courland had colonies, so to do that, Poland would only need Denmark's non-action. Not really a problem.

And besides, would colonies even be necessary? Poland could have all the land and resources it needs in the east, with a "natural border" with Russia on the Dnyepr and Daugava. If butterflies allow to somehow aquire upper silesia, it would even have coal and iron necessary for industrialization and become a great power simply by virtue of total population.
Actually, after the Jagellonians were gone the Vasa and later the Sobieski were working to gain Silesia, in fact the Vasas were quite successful in regaining Opole, if the Vasa survives parts of Silesia would had been returned to Poland if not all of it.
 

MSZ

Banned
Actually, after the Jagellonians were gone the Vasa and later the Sobieski were working to gain Silesia, in fact the Vasas were quite successful in regaining Opole, if the Vasa survives parts of Silesia would had been returned to Poland if not all of it.

Sobieski working to gain Silesia? Hmm... that got me thinking to something I read a while ago what I thought maight be a good PoD for a great power Poland.

Apparently in 1683 Louis XIV was working towards increasing French influence in the states of the HRE, something he found himself in competition with Austria. To achieve his aims, he looked east towards Poland, as a possible ally against Austria, ruled at the time by Sobieski. He proposed an alliance between the two and was quite strongly pressing for it. Sobieski was hesitant - on the one hand Austria was an ally against Turkey and not so long ago against Sweden, as well as the Habsburg’s being very catholic like him, on the other, Sobieski had ambitions to regain the Duchy of Prussia, which had its vassalage lifted earlier, something Brandenburg and Austria were opposed to. The negotiations went well for the two, but France didn’t know that and over did it. French ambassador Marquise Nicholas-Marie de Vitry began a plot to dethrone Sobieski in case of a failure, but the Polish counter-intelligence found out about it by bribing the ambassadors secretary, leading to the king obtaining copies of the ambassadors reports. Talks broke down, the ambassador had to flee and Poland broke off relations with France, signing an alliance with Austria.

Now, I don’t know if the story is true, it’s something out of an article from a magazine, so it would be nice if someone could confirm it, as it looks like a good PoD. Let’s suppose the alliance somehow comes to life. Maybe the plot isn’t started or isn’t uncovered, leading to Poland demanding Prussia goes back to being a fief of Poland (this demand was supposedly justified by Prussia not abiding by the terms of agreement which gave it independence, as it was required to pay annual tribute until 1700, something it was either late with or didn’t do at all). Frederick William refuses, in which turn Poland invades Prussia (the polish nobles were also supposedly supportive of it, hoping to get some wealth out of it, and the Prussian nobles wanted the same privileges the Poles had). Brandenburg goes against Poland, which in turn leads to France stepping in against Brandenburg (The Hohenzollerns being the aggressors, as Prussia was not part of the HRE). Austria responds with protecting the HRE against France, leading to war on German soil in which time Poland makes short work of Prussia, and then turns against Austria to take Silesia. Sobieski introduces his son as the hereditary Duke of Prussia, giving him a good bid to the Polish throne after his father’s death.

End result is Prussia being completely eliminated, Austria being broken by France and Turkey (Poland doesn’t aid it in 1683, Vienna falls). This eliminates two out of the three partitioners. With Sobieski’s son as Duke of Prussia, his noble house becomes the de facto hereditary ruling house of Poland, allowing for royal rule to be strengthened, reforming the state. Also, without a Wettin on the throne, the Great Northern War may be butterflied away, further saving Poland.

Possible?
 
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