This--from the *San Min Chu I* (Three Principles of the People)--in retrospect looks like one of Sun Yat-sen's odder ideas: that China was endangered because it was falling behind the other powers in population!
"Now let us compare nation with nation as to the rate of increase of the population. In one hundred years, America increased ten times, England three times, Japan three times, Russia four times, Germany two and a half times, and France by only one-fourth. This increase is partly due to a decrease of death rate through the development of public health and medical science, and partly due to an expansion of food supply and livelihood through industrialization. What is the significance for China of such rapid growth in the world's population?
"We shall be alarmed if we compare the growth of our population with that of the rest of the Powers. For instance, the United States has increased her population from nine million to one hundred million during the last hundred years; at the same rate of increase the population would be one billion after another hundred years. We often boast that our people are unconquerable; for in the past the Mongols and the Manchus have been gradually absorbed by the Chinese even though they once conquered the Chinese and ruled the country. For the same reason, it is believed that even though the Japanese and white peoples were to dominate this nation for a while, they would eventually be absorbed by the Chinese.
"Such a prediction is too optimistic. When the Manchus conquered China, they numbered only a little over one million people; their number was very small in comparison with the size of the Chinese population. On the other hand, suppose a century from now the United States has a population of one billion-—two and a half times more than our population. If the Americans, then, were to rule China, our people would easily be assimilated because there would be only four Chinese to every ten Americans. During the reign of Ch'ien Lung, almost two hundred years ago, it was established that China had a population of four hundred million. Today our population is still four hundred million; one hundred years later, it may still be four hundred million...
"What is really the size of our population? Without expecting an increase as rapid as that of Japan and England, we must admit that we ought to have increased to five hundred million since the days of Ch'ien Lung. Mr. W. W. Rockhill, formerly American Minister at Peking and a recognized authority on Chinese population, came to the conclusion after careful investigation, that the population of China is about three hundred million. If that is true, our population has decreased by one-fourth since the days of Ch'ien Lung. Even if we estimate the present population at four hundred million, it is fearful to think that one hundred years from now our population may be still four hundred million while that of other nations will have increased several times..."
http://larouchejapan.com/japanese/drupal-6.14/sites/default/files/text/San-Min-Chu-I_FINAL.pdf (Don't worry about it being a LaRouche website; they're merely reproducing one of the standard translations here.)
This is a good example of the hazards of straight-line extrapolation! AHC: Make it at least partially valid. I.e., make the population of the US in 2024 (a century after Sun Yat-sen's lectures) not an unrealistic billion people but maybe 400-500 million (more immigration and higher birth rates than in OTL) and--much more difficult--China's only 400 million or so. (The latter presumably requires many decades of wars and civil wars, widespread famines and epidemics, etc.)
"Now let us compare nation with nation as to the rate of increase of the population. In one hundred years, America increased ten times, England three times, Japan three times, Russia four times, Germany two and a half times, and France by only one-fourth. This increase is partly due to a decrease of death rate through the development of public health and medical science, and partly due to an expansion of food supply and livelihood through industrialization. What is the significance for China of such rapid growth in the world's population?
"We shall be alarmed if we compare the growth of our population with that of the rest of the Powers. For instance, the United States has increased her population from nine million to one hundred million during the last hundred years; at the same rate of increase the population would be one billion after another hundred years. We often boast that our people are unconquerable; for in the past the Mongols and the Manchus have been gradually absorbed by the Chinese even though they once conquered the Chinese and ruled the country. For the same reason, it is believed that even though the Japanese and white peoples were to dominate this nation for a while, they would eventually be absorbed by the Chinese.
"Such a prediction is too optimistic. When the Manchus conquered China, they numbered only a little over one million people; their number was very small in comparison with the size of the Chinese population. On the other hand, suppose a century from now the United States has a population of one billion-—two and a half times more than our population. If the Americans, then, were to rule China, our people would easily be assimilated because there would be only four Chinese to every ten Americans. During the reign of Ch'ien Lung, almost two hundred years ago, it was established that China had a population of four hundred million. Today our population is still four hundred million; one hundred years later, it may still be four hundred million...
"What is really the size of our population? Without expecting an increase as rapid as that of Japan and England, we must admit that we ought to have increased to five hundred million since the days of Ch'ien Lung. Mr. W. W. Rockhill, formerly American Minister at Peking and a recognized authority on Chinese population, came to the conclusion after careful investigation, that the population of China is about three hundred million. If that is true, our population has decreased by one-fourth since the days of Ch'ien Lung. Even if we estimate the present population at four hundred million, it is fearful to think that one hundred years from now our population may be still four hundred million while that of other nations will have increased several times..."
http://larouchejapan.com/japanese/drupal-6.14/sites/default/files/text/San-Min-Chu-I_FINAL.pdf (Don't worry about it being a LaRouche website; they're merely reproducing one of the standard translations here.)
This is a good example of the hazards of straight-line extrapolation! AHC: Make it at least partially valid. I.e., make the population of the US in 2024 (a century after Sun Yat-sen's lectures) not an unrealistic billion people but maybe 400-500 million (more immigration and higher birth rates than in OTL) and--much more difficult--China's only 400 million or so. (The latter presumably requires many decades of wars and civil wars, widespread famines and epidemics, etc.)