I don't think a succesful Stilicho is the best way forward really, given the man was always quite unpopular at court, and was quite happy to strip the Rhine of troops to start a Roman civil war in the Balkans. A better bet is to have Constantius III survive for a reasonable amount of time as Honorius' co-Emperor, and he can then provide some much needed stability for his son Valentinian III in the 420s and 430s.
What about a more successful Stilicho along with a Constantius as co-emperor and then emperor into the 430's?
IronOwl said:The problem with the Roman Empire was the fact that it lacked a decent, solid hierarchy. This dates right back to the early history of Rome, with its phobia of kingship. This meant that the Empire required strong leadership in order to hold together. The Empires most successful period, between the reigns of Nerva and Marcus Aurelius, was largely down to there being an established succession mechanism of adoption, which was generally respected, as well as the strength of the emperors. During this period, the Roman's didn't succumb to their usual tendency of bickering and infighting, which was a help, since civil wars didn't distract from defending against the two major external threats; the Marcomanni and the Persians. However, Marcus Aurelius made a fatal error in upsetting this balance by making his son Commodus the first Emperor to be born in the purple. This would have been fine if he had proved competent. Unfortunately he didn't, and unlike incompetent monarchs in later civilizations, he didn't have divine right or a loyal body of support to lean on. Following his death, whatever line of succession there had been simply disintegrated. The civil war that followed the murder of Commodus shook the power of the Roman State. Although Septimius Severus somewhat restored it, it again fell apart due to attempts to create a dynasty. The major problem here was that successful Emperors needed the support of the Army to hang onto power and stay in power. Augustus, Vespasian, Trajan and Septimius Severus had this backing. Commodus, Caracalla and Alexander Severus didn't. Without strong leadership from the top, the Army increasingly became a rogue organization, and one which didn't have a clear objective at that. Various elements of it installed and deposed dozens of Emperors throughout the Third Century. These perennial rebellions and civil wars drastically weakened imperial power, leaving the frontiers undermanned and sending the economy into freefall. By the end of the crisis, or at least, the interval, men like Diocletian had become convinced that the Empire was ungovernable, which he was right about. However, his construction of a tetrarchy didn't actually help the situation, in fact it may have made it worse. The Western Roman Empire that was eventually to rise out of the ashes of the tetrarchy was, in essence a doomed state. It lacked the manpower, finance and stability of the Eastern Empire. It also inherited the worst characteristics of the original Empire, such as the disloyalty of the military. One poster has mentioned how it was not facing an organized state with an army, and that this might have given it a chance. In fact, facing down one state is much easier than trying to do the same with myriad nomadic tribes. It was relatively easy to defend the Eastern Imperial border from the Sassanids, but almost impossible to do the same in the West against the Saxons, Franks, Goths, Vandals, Alemmanni, Huns, Alans and Suebi. Also, you can make a proper peace treaty with an organized state, which you can't with only semi-organized groups like these. The lack of manpower in the West was fatal, as it led to the employment of barbarians as mercenaries. These proved to be even less politically reliable than the old Legions. Ultimately, the settling of barbarians in Roman territory was also disastrous as they usurped what was left of Imperial authority wherever they settled. The problem with trying to find a good POD for a successful Western Empire is that the whole project was largely doomed from the start.
So what we need here is a more competent Commodus/Aurelius adopting an heir?