AHC: Successful Toppling of Castro during Kennedy's Presidency

[VirginiaHistoryTeacher]

Just like it says.

Find a way to topple the Castro regime, and install a CIA puppet, or reinstall Batista during the Kennedy Presidency.

Plot twist.

Kennedy is not assassinated during his first term. Oust Castro by 1968 with or without an OTL Vietnam War. Explore the options.

 

[TheYoungPretender]

It seems like the butterfly you need isn't Oswald sneezing but not Cuban Missile Crisis. There are a lot of guarantees applied to Cuba after that, and considering what was happening when they were made, they're likely going to hold as long as Kennedy is running the place.

 

[M. Adolphe Thiers]

It seems like the butterfly you need isn't Oswald sneezing but not Cuban Missile Crisis. There are a lot of guarantees applied to Cuba after that, and considering what was happening when they were made, they're likely going to hold as long as Kennedy is running the place.

Or the Kennedy administration takes an objective look at the Bay of Pigs invasion, and makes some serious revisions to the plan.

 

[highwayhoss]

The only way that's going to happen is an all out invasion. Castro has a 60,000 man army and an efficient internal security service, plus he's extremely popular. No covert action is going to remove him; worse, CIA has no idea of the internal situation in Cuba. And reinstating Batista? Uh uh, not even an ASB can do that, he's too much hated.

 

[Napoleon IV]

The only way that's going to happen is an all out invasion. Castro has a 60,000 man army and an efficient internal security service, plus he's extremely popular. No covert action is going to remove him; worse, CIA has no idea of the internal situation in Cuba. And reinstating Batista? Uh uh, not even and ASB can do that, he's too much hated.

There was no plan to reinstall Batista (even we hated him by that point), but you're right about everything else. Castro is too popular and he has an army, a security service, and the Soviets to come to his aid.

 

[M. Adolphe Thiers]

There was no plan to reinstall Batista (even we hated him by that point), but you're right about everything else. Castro is too popular and he has an army, a security service, and the Soviets to come to his aid.

How could the Soviets intervene prior to the missile crisis? Cuba is America's backyard, and if the US intervened it would be like the current mess in Ukraine. People may not like it, but nobody is seriously going to mess with the United States intervening so close to home.

Afterwards, the window is definitely gone.

 

[VirginiaHistoryTeacher]

How could the Soviets intervene prior to the missile crisis? Cuba is America's backyard, and if the US intervened it would be like the current mess in Ukraine. People may not like it, but nobody is seriously going to mess with the United States intervening so close to home.

Afterwards, the window is definitely gone.

Prior to the United States installing missiles in Turkey, there were no missiles in Cuba. Let's assume also that no missiles are in Turkey. Now Cuba is totally isolated as a socialist island. Without DIRECT Soviet support and access, the United States could bomb Cuba to smithereens if it wanted.

Let's assume a full-blown invasion though. Would it wind up being a Vietnam-esque quagmire?

 

[Kung Fucious]

Prior to the United States installing missiles in Turkey, there were no missiles in Cuba. Let's assume also that no missiles are in Turkey. Now Cuba is totally isolated as a socialist island. Without DIRECT Soviet support and access, the United States could bomb Cuba to smithereens if it wanted.

Let's assume a full-blown invasion though. Would it wind up being a Vietnam-esque quagmire?

It wouldn't quite reach Vietnam levels, since Cuba is an island and it'd be difficult, if not impossible, for the Russians (or anyone, really) to supply the Cubans with arms and materiel. That said, Castro was wildly popular, so the US would be facing an extreme uphill battle winning the hearts and minds. Plus, Castro and his crew had just finished running a very successful and effective guerrilla campaign in the Cuban interior, they'd have little difficulty falling back to that role and bogging the US down. The initial invasion might knock out the Cuban government fairly quickly, but the occupation would be a real mess.

 

[VirginiaHistoryTeacher]

It wouldn't quite reach Vietnam levels, since Cuba is an island and it'd be difficult, if not impossible, for the Russians (or anyone, really) to supply the Cubans with arms and materiel. That said, Castro was wildly popular, so the US would be facing an extreme uphill battle winning the hearts and minds. Plus, Castro and his crew had just finished running a very successful and effective guerrilla campaign in the Cuban interior, they'd have little difficulty falling back to that role and bogging the US down. The initial invasion might knock out the Cuban government fairly quickly, but the occupation would be a real mess.

I see that, but with Vietnam, there was Laos and Cambodia to run to and attack from. I can see the United States quickly taking Havana but then the interior would have to just be carpet bombed into oblivion. They'd likely tunnel under the earth and create massive bunkers as they have right now on the island.

 

[deathscompanion1]

TBH I think that Cuba would be a relatively easy alternative to Vietnam.

Its in range of the USAF's home bases and there is very little chance of safe areas or secure supply lines coming into existence. The terrain is much more forgiving and critically the Cubans aren't going to sacrifice 40,000 young men a year to fuck with Uncle Sam.

Castro and his men were a very small group fighting a very incompetent force that mostly just broke itself. Against the Americans who would be willing to sit on them as least as long as OTL I just don't see anything resembling OTL's guerrilla war.