Could the Spanish or French have mounted successful or at least disruptive or devastating invasions of any of the British 13 colonies during the 18th century before the ARW? Bonus points if any of these are amphibious invasions.
The expedition in Georgia failed and King Ferdinand the VI loathed war so he would have basically signed anything for a peace treaty.France never participated in the war.Maybe an offensive from Cuba to the 13 colonies would have been possible after the destruction of the fleet at Cartagena, but I don't think it would have been more than sacking some towns in Georgia or the Carolinas
The Brits just lost 15000 soldiers due diseases,injuries or just death and they lost around 50 boats.Obviously San Agustín was not strong enough to launch an invasion to Georgia, but the Spanish for once had the naval superiority in the caribean for that bracket of time.Even if conquest is *not* in the cards for the Spanish, could they scar some of the southern colonies and set back their development by raiding, sacking and burning towns and inciting some servile revolts in the Carolinas or Chesapeake?
If Spain had control of Louisiana it would have been a whole different story though.As Galvez showed during the american wars of independence.
20 of May of 1741.Well, if we accelerate British and French involvement in the War of Austrian Succession by a couple years, Spain could still use Louisiana as a staging ground via alliance with the French. When was this Cartagena disaster for the British? 1741?
You would need to butterfly Isabel of Farnesio in the late 30's and kill Ferdinand VI so Charles the III directly inherits the throne.Spain's foreign policy was more focused on Italy due Isabel and the lack of interest of Phillip V to rule after the death of Louis I. Ferdinand VI was never interested in war and he would go to great lenghts to avoid it.That is why the Spanish army and navy weren't really ready for the 7 years war when Charles took control of the country.Overall a lot of things really need to change for the British colonies to be in any real dangerIn Jenkins Ear, France chose not to join the fray. Then, in the early years of the Austrian Succession, they chose to pretend they weren't belligerents. It's obvious in hindsight, but the timing was great for taking on Britain in '40, knocking them out, and then going after Austria. Instead, they chose the Austria first policy.
Successful is in the eye of the beholder. The maximum gain Spain can hope for in America is an aggressive border settlement with Georgia, or maybe taking Georgia. The max France can hope for is northern Maine, and lands west of the future line of proclamation of 1763. They are NOT taking or keeping any of the english colonies. However, OTL, there was a legitimate invasion scare in England, and a legitimate slave uprising scare in the colonies. Spain/France could have taken advantage of the situation to make gains in America and isolating Austria, where they could carve off some gains. A successful invasion of England was still a possibility in this time frame.
Of course, all this has to be tempered with OTL's dreadful performance in the first half of the '40's by France/Spain. fix that pesky little issue so that they're halfway competent, and the world is their oyster.
I was referring to War of Jenkins Ear/War of Austrian Succession. The time and the players were all ripe for a different 1740You would need to butterfly Isabel of Farnesio in the late 30's and kill Ferdinand VI so Charles the III directly inherits the throne.Spain's foreign policy was more focused on Italy due Isabel and the lack of interest of Phillip V to rule after the death of Louis I. Ferdinand VI was never interested in war and he would go to great lenghts to avoid it.That is why the Spanish army and navy weren't really ready for the 7 years war when Charles took control of the country.Overall a lot of things really need to change for the British colonies to be in any real danger
Successful is in the eye of the beholder. The maximum gain Spain can hope for in America is an aggressive border settlement with Georgia, or maybe taking Georgia. The max France can hope for is northern Maine, and lands west of the future line of proclamation of 1763. They are NOT taking or keeping any of the english colonies.
I know but if you want to continue the war in America you will have to first stop the Italian lobby in the Spanish court to disappear as for Isabel and all the Italians that she brought getting Italian kingdoms and duchies for his offsprings was more important than the American colonies.Then Ferdinand came around 1746 in OTL but Phillip was really fragile and the death of his wife would have speed up his own death or he would simply abdicate as he was king as Isabel didn't want Ferdinand to rule, but Phillip never really wanted to rule to begin with.I was referring to War of Jenkins Ear/War of Austrian Succession. The time and the players were all ripe for a different 1740
The French invasion route in the seven years war was probably the best way to go but fundamentally they were at a considerable disadvantage given the presence of British regulars and the huge population of loyal colonials