AHC: Successful Polish revolution during Nazi occupation

With a POD in 1933 make Poland revolt and occupy at least a quarter of their country for at least a quarter of a year. Must be during the Occupation.
 
Given the ruthlessness exhibited by the Nazis in quelling in the Uprising of 1944, with the Wehrmacht in full flight and the Soviets encamped spare miles beyond the gates of Warsaw, I can't see this being successfully executed without a PoD that drastically alters the course of the war, very early on. The easiest way forward would be to have Hitler, against the pleas of his generals, order the commencement of the Battle of France a few months earlier than IOTL (given his diabolical record, I wouldn't consider this sort of naked brinksmanship at all out-of-character). Although taking the Wallies initially aback, the advance is liable to stall very quickly. Unable to end the deadlock, and fearing a rapid pushback, the Nazi leadership enters into negotiations for an armistice weeks later. Their faith totally lacking in Hitler and in Germans in general to follow through on a generous bargain, the Anglo-French delegation won't expect anything less than a full restoration of Polish sovereignty (they'd have to be insane at this point to concede even basic trifles like the Danzig Corridor), something the Nazis would not be inclined to accept under any circumstances. A Home Army uprising in the occupied territories, at such a crucial hour, may be just about enough to break the German resolve and push them towards a compromise - they're in too fragile a place now, enclosed on both sides.

The reaction of Stalin will be interesting, as, whilst it's impossible to conceive the USSR warming to an independent rump Poland, an incursion into the west would play straight into the hands of the Germans, and would be received with utter hostility by the Allies.
 
With a POD in 1933 make Poland revolt and occupy at least a quarter of their country for at least a quarter of a year. Must be during the Occupation.

Paramilitary organizations simply can't do that sort of thing. If Poland surrenders in 1939 and gets to become a German protectorate, the "Vichy Poland" might be allowed to retain some sort of an army capable of resisting the handful of German forces available in the east if the attack on France goes very badly.
 
The July 1944 coup works. The new German government, unsurprisingly, fails to quickly come to terms with the Western Allies, but the aftermath of the coup is destabilizing enough that on both fronts, the German armies withdraw in disarray. The Poles launch their Uprising timed as per OTL (just before the Soviet troops will enter Warsaw), but given that the Germans are much more disorganized in this ATL, they succeed in taking the airport. Operation Market-Garden isn't in the making and might not even be necessary; the British send in airborne troops and supplies with a view to prevent a Soviet takeover. The Germans are routed to the Western end of Poland, while of course the Soviets hold the Eastern end to the Vistula. The AK, also with Western-equipped and trained Polish troops and a smattering of British light infantry, have the remaining third for themselves.
Supply quickly becomes an unsolvable problem, with the Soviets stonewalling the independent Poland and no seaport, but fortunately Germany gives up by November 1944, accepting unconditional surrender.
 
The July 1944 coup works. The new German government, unsurprisingly, fails to quickly come to terms with the Western Allies, but the aftermath of the coup is destabilizing enough that on both fronts, the German armies withdraw in disarray. The Poles launch their Uprising timed as per OTL (just before the Soviet troops will enter Warsaw), but given that the Germans are much more disorganized in this ATL, they succeed in taking the airport. Operation Market-Garden isn't in the making and might not even be necessary; the British send in airborne troops and supplies with a view to prevent a Soviet takeover. The Germans are routed to the Western end of Poland, while of course the Soviets hold the Eastern end to the Vistula. The AK, also with Western-equipped and trained Polish troops and a smattering of British light infantry, have the remaining third for themselves.
Supply quickly becomes an unsolvable problem, with the Soviets stonewalling the independent Poland and no seaport, but fortunately Germany gives up by November 1944, accepting unconditional surrender.

Interesting idea. Most feasible I think. Anyone else?
 
Top