1) What you're missing is that Market Garden failed because the regime *also* bounced back in the West. What happened in Aachen and the Huertgen Forest, two battles forgotten because US memory of WWII begins and ends with D-Day also shows this pattern. For Market Garden, a foolish, idiotic attempt to charge straight for Berlin without worrying about the flank, to work requires the Nazis be so far gone the USSR will have already taken Berlin.
2) If Germany collapses, the collapse comes in the East first in this timeframe. They were able to move reserves around to both the Rhine and to Hungary. Their inability to do so in Hungary in particular means they won't do so near the Rhine, which means that with the biggest army and relatively simplest supply situation the USSR gets the happiest outcome. The democracies were screwed by a ghastly logistical situation, and to alter this requires a lot of changes in other PODs, the great bulk of which aid the USSR just as much.
3) And likewise the USSR will be able to move into the Vienna-Prague region much earlier, as such a collapse means no idiotic, stupid, prolonged Budapest Siege.
4) Which is precisely why Market Garden only works with a general German collapse all along the Front resulting in Soviet-democratic mutual joyrides.