AHC: Successful German Confederation

Forgive if this has already been raised (recently), but the search feature hasn't turned up anything for me so far. Basically as it says on the tin; how/why/what needs to happen to get to a successful German Confederation, that includes both Austria and Prussia, as well as the 'minor' German states.

Note that successful could mean becoming the European hegemon, or it could mean not being eaten alive by France in the West or Russia in the East. German Confederation likewise is open to interpretation, though the OP's preferred route would be through a successful Frankfurt Parliament, I am open, willing, and indeed hoping for other ideas as well.

As well, what, and why, happens after a successful 'Germany' comes to power roughly several decades ahead of IOTL, and one that is both larger and slightly less northernly-centered on the European continent? ex; IIRC, thousands of middle class liberal Germans fled abroad, especially to the United States, after the failure of Frankfurt; and many thousands more after the Austro-Prussian War. Presumably, unless a Civil War were to occur (again, how, why), the POD would butterfly away both of those events. How does this one small change affect history?

EDIT: As well, what would be the capital of such a state? Obviously both Berlin and Vienna are equally unacceptable to the Austrians and Prussians, respectably. If we take the Frankfurt successful route that city could be the host, but I could see this being argued against both because Frankfurt is within Prussia and because it is so close to the Eastern border. AFAIK, the capital would most likely be in one of the free cities (Frankfurt perhaps?), OR the capital of one of the smaller German states (Munich?)

As well, how does this affect Colonialism? With a *Germany more focused on Europe, what colonies does it acquire (when, how & why), if any at all. How does the other European powers react? Does this *Germany hold onto Trieste, or does it finally fall to the Italians?
 
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Well for one major way to prevent Prussia and it's rise is butterfly away Bismark. With no Bismark Prusia does not rise to otl Prominence in the German states.:)
 
Bump from the Dead

I suppose the simplest way to achieve this would simply be for a different First Schleswig War. ITTL Prussia is even less successful, and is swiftly driven off by both by the Danes and stronger-than-OTL pressure from Britain, France and Russia. Seeing 'German' forces defeated and cowed by outside powers only strengthens the nationalist tide within the Frankfurt Assembly, as well as the fact that Frederick William IV's Prussia had tried to make a move into Schleswig-Holstein without first consulting the Assembly would further strengthen the position of Frankfurt. After the Schleswig Crisis (ATL term), Frederick William IV attempts to back-peddle on all of his pledges; declaring the constitution and parliament null & void, and recanting on his support for a unified Germany. Like the French Revolution a half-century earlier, the moderates are either radicalized due to the actions of the monarchy & nobility (junkers), or pushed to the side by the radicals. With liberal nationalist fervor sweeping through German speaking lands, especially after the Schleswig Crisis, the Prussian monarchy is overthrown in a leftist popular front.

Even at this time, the Austrian Empire had all of the same problems that would plague and destroy the Austro-Hungarian empire less than a century from the POD OTL. The same revolt in the northern German states is attempted in Austria, where the new emperor Franz Joseph I has a much stronger rule, as well as more territory, troops, and gold, leading to a short Civil War / German Wars between pan-Germans and Imperial Austrians, all the while various ethnic groups in the empire tired of Austrian rule take their time to rebel, incited on by their own nationalism feelings of irredentist claims, which is finally settled soon after the surrounding outside powers step in to clean up the mess.

The new 'German Union' (possibly, in a bit of OTL parallelism, named the Federal Republic of Germany [Bundesrepublik Deutschland]?) is declared in autumn of 1851 (or spring '52 ?), completely redrawing the map of Europe. The new pan-German state has its capital at Frankfurt, the original site of the revolution and the most loyal city throughout the tumultuous years. A rump-Austrian state exists, but most of its territory is actually in Hungarian territory, and the empire falls apart within the coming decade, the few German-speaking lands swiftly moving to join the new Unified German State.

Now, tell me how everything I just posted is wrong ;) :p
 
Ok, continuing this. I guess this will be my first mini-TL (based entirely off of Wikipedia, awesome! :rolleyes: ;))...

The butterflies from a successful German state in the mid-19th century starts to have some very large butterflies early on. The Hungarian & Slovak Uprisings of 1848 is going to go very differently. With Austria busy dealing both with the Hungarian and Slovak uprisings, as well as war with a unified pan-german state in the north, it's calls for help might fall on deaf ears. Nicholas I will agree to offer assistance to Franz Joseph I, but Nicholas was no fool and would see the writing on the wall. Though I'm sure the Hungarian Kingdom is invaded as per OTL, its going to be an annexation by the Russians, much like the earlier Partitions of Poland. Neither the Austrians nor the Germans will be able to do much about the situation, as neither has the resources to stop it nor wants to open another front of operations against a large foe over a bunch of Magyars.

IOTL, the Crimean War started when France forced the Ottoman Empire by threat of war to sign a new treaty making France, and the Roman Catholic Church, the Christian authority over the Holy Land, overturning several previous treaties which made the Russians and the Greek Orthodox Church the authority. Diplomacy ultimately breaks down, and Russian forces enter the Danubian Principalities in July 1853. Tsar Nicholas I believed that the European powers, especially Austria, would not object strongly to the annexation of a few neighboring Ottoman provinces, especially given Russia had assisted Austria's efforts in suppressing the Revolutions of 1848.

However, in this TL its not the Austrian Empire who is the great power immediately west of Russia, but instead the newly formed pan-German Unified state. There's no love lost between Russia and Germany ITTL, and Nicholas isn't going to leave his Western flank open for attack. Therefore, they'll be more troops stationed to guard the border, which means even less troops Nicholas could deploy for an invasion. As well, Nicholas is going to be busy on his western border as is dealing now with incorporating both Poland and Hungary into his empire. I can't conceive of way that Russia would be able to respond to the Eastern Question militaristically at this time; Nicholas is no fool, so I think I just butterflied away the entire Crimean War. ITTL eventually Britain intervenes in order to maintain the balance of power and check Russian expansion by supporting the French claim. Outgunned, outnumbered, and surrounded, Nicholas is forced to stand down.

Diplomatically, things are going to be very different than IOTL. This Germany is larger, richer, more populous, and much more eastern and southern oriented than OTL. As well, Russo-German hostility is much more open and belligerent by both sides. Russia is going to be looking for allies, and not going to be finding very many at this time. Germany is going to be looking for alliances as well, and finding a much easier time of it from a very unlikely source (from OTL's POV); France. Though France would have recently undergone the coup of 1851 and proclamation of the Second French Empire, relations between the two powers would be cordial. Napoleon III, though an autocrat, is a liberal. And while Germany would be a republic, it would also still be a fairly conservative country; especially with the inclusion of the southern states and former Austria. I think the two equal out in the end. As well, Germany would act as a powerful buffer between France and Russia, allowing France to make its move on the decaying Ottoman Empire without fear of reprisal. In return, Germany seeks France as a powerful ally to counter Russian aggression. Both will see Russia as a common foe, and Britain as a common rival (which is a different motive altogether). As well, both nations are going to have claims on, and interest in the Italian peninsula. France in Rome, and Germany in Trieste; setting the groundwork for joint (and competing) claims in Northern Italy; as well as competing with Italian irredentist nationalism I'm sure it still goes over well in propaganda circles.

With the fall of the Austrian Empire, the Italians are going to take the opportunity, swept up in the revolutionary wave of 1848, and the creation of a unified Italian state is advanced by a decade compared to OTL. Italy is going to need allies to counter Franco-German pressure in the north; she will try to court Britain, which may or may not play out in Italy's favor. Where Italians will see concrete rewards for her efforts though, is Russia. Especially with France forces holding Rome, Nicholas will use this to his advantage in pressing an Italian alliance, claiming that the Pope/Catholic Church does not truly want to take authority in the Holy Land from the Greek Orthodox Church, and is only being forced to by the French Emperor, and etc. Many will see through this, especially Italians, but as they gain a large ally against Franco-German pressure.

Map shows Europa circa 1852, following the unification of both Germany and Italy into single states by irredentist nationalists in those regions, the breakup of the Austrian Empire into several small squabbling states, and the annexation and occupation of the Hungarian Kingdom by the Russian Empire.

Großdeutschland-large.png
 
I don't think this is really the German Confederation any more. An Erfurt Union Germany has a federal, not a confederal government, and it will probably be called the Deutsches Union until they take Alsace-Lorraine, at which point it becomes the Reich. Even a Frankfurt Parliament Germany will probably be referred to as a Union or a Reich rather than a Bund. It's difficult to imagine a confederation surviving, because it would either strengthen, be broken up, or be broken up followed by a national movement which would, if successful, really strengthen it. There is a possibility that it would still maintain the name Confederation, but the nationalists will be itching to call it a Reich or, if delayed for many years, a Republik. Bundesrepublik Deutschlands would be a great touch.

Frankfurt is the most likely capital, at least in a state established by, or declaring continuity to, nationalist revolution. In an Erfurt Union Germany where would the capital be, though? As much as I love the place, I can't imagine it being an imperial capital (Domplatz would be the perfect place to put a Reichstag though if they decided to take that route). The Prussians will want the capital in Berlin, but may be forced to put it in Frankfurt, especially in a Grossdeutschland sort of scenario. Perhaps the Reichstag, the Kanzlerei, and the Imperial Palace are in Berlin, but as a gesture to the smaller states, the Bundesrat is put in Erfurt or Frankfurt?

Erfurter Union flag?
erfurterunionflag.png


Now having seen it, probably not. OTL Kaiserreich flag is actually pretty likely, considering. They want no part of the Austrian yellow.
 

It was the German Confederation to begin with. Though in this TL its far more successful, that does not mean it doesn't meet the criteria of my own OP ;) Especially since the tin on the box says 'Successful German Confederation'

I don't think this is really the German Confederation any more. An Erfurt Union Germany [...]

The Erfut Union is a Prussian invention. After Frederick William IV rejected the crown offered to him by some members of the Frankfurt Assembly in favor of the Kleindeutsche, the Prussian government sought to replace the German Confederation with a new, Prussian-dominated institution.

The Erfurt Union is an interesting arrangement, but it would be much more difficult to make something work out of that structure. Even if Prussia had rejected the Punctation of Olmütz and refused to rejoin the Confederation alongside Austria, it would have quickly become nothing more than a tool for Prussian Imperialism over the rest of the German states, and likely result in a a OTL-parallel 'North German Confederation' under the name of the Erfurt Union, and likely resulting in the same German Empire from OTL.

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However, if you're interested, Hawkeye has recently opened a thread about an Erfurt Union.
 
It was the German Confederation to begin with. Though in this TL its far more successful, that does not mean it doesn't meet the criteria of my own OP ;) Especially since the tin on the box says 'Successful German Confederation'



The Erfut Union is a Prussian invention. After Frederick William IV rejected the crown offered to him by some members of the Frankfurt Assembly in favor of the Kleindeutsche, the Prussian government sought to replace the German Confederation with a new, Prussian-dominated institution.

The Erfurt Union is an interesting arrangement, but it would be much more difficult to make something work out of that structure. Even if Prussia had rejected the Punctation of Olmütz and refused to rejoin the Confederation alongside Austria, it would have quickly become nothing more than a tool for Prussian Imperialism over the rest of the German states, and likely result in a a OTL-parallel 'North German Confederation' under the name of the Erfurt Union, and likely resulting in the same German Empire from OTL.

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However, if you're interested, Hawkeye has recently opened a thread about an Erfurt Union.

That's odd, for some reason I had thought you included the Erfurt Union as a fulfillment of your scenario. I like the Erfurt Union as a way to speed up the OTL kaiserreich (my current AH project involves speeding up the 19th century to a breakneck pace even compared with OTL).

I like your idea of failed revolution leads to a stronger union the second time 'round, but both Austria and Prussia will strongly oppose a pan-German sort of thing because it includes the other. Maybe Austria will favor a Grossdeutsch solution but they are not strong enough to establish one.

Another possibility is going the other way around: have your POD earlier, and let the butterflies give the Frankfurt parliament some better leadership and luck. I still maintain that a successful German Confederation renames itself an Empire and no longer has a confederal government. In the absence of a strong federal government the states are going to squabble and the nationalists will get uppity. It unites or it breaks apart.

Posting at this thread made me find Hawkeye's, which is regrettably underposted. You should go give it some juice.

EDIT: Rereading your scenario, I'm pretty sure you've just set up a Great War between the Germano-French Entente and the Anglo-Russo-Italian Allies. This is a very very interesting conflict. The Danes will join the allies. Wildcards are the Ottomans and the Americans. The Belgians and Dutch will pray that their neutrality be respected.
 
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If Hungary goes to the Russians and Austria is about to be absorbed by Germany what is keeping Croats and Slovenians from breaking away. Their national awakening was in full swing at that time and supported by a motivated and experienced military force from the turkish frontier. Considering pan-slavism is also expanding as an idea very rapidly at that time what is stoping Checzs, Croats and Slovenians for joining Russia and helping with the occupation of Hungary, their "ancestral oppressors".
 
I like your idea of failed revolution leads to a stronger union the second time 'round, but both Austria and Prussia will strongly oppose a pan-German sort of thing because it includes the other. Maybe Austria will favor a Grossdeutsch solution but they are not strong enough to establish one.

Another possibility is going the other way around: have your POD earlier, and let the butterflies give the Frankfurt parliament some better leadership and luck. I still maintain that a successful German Confederation renames itself an Empire and no longer has a confederal government. In the absence of a strong federal government the states are going to squabble and the nationalists will get uppity. It unites or it breaks apart.

A even more disastrous First Schleswig War leads to the overthrow of the Prussian monarchy ITTL circa 1850-51, and a strong Frankfurt Assembly fills the gap. Pan-german nationalism sweeps through the German states, including Prussia and Austria. This leads to successful Hungarian and Slovak Revolutions, the first of which is crushed as Russia annexes the region using Emperor Franz Joseph I's OTL-like request for assistance as a pretext. Nationalist in north Italy take the opportunity to revolt as well, breaking away from the dying Austrian Empire, and forcefully uniting the peninsula over the next several years. What's left of Austria falls apart into several squabbling states nestled between *Germany to the north and *Italy to the south. Eventually Austria proper will be absorbed into Germany as apart of pan-Germanic nationalism.

I agree a successful German Confederation would become a Reich ITTL, if there were any powerful monarchs/nobles left. With the overthrow of the Hohenzollerns there are no powerful nobles, or states, that have the ability to stand above-and-beyond the rest. Perhaps the Habsburgs could fill the void, if their power-base hadn't just been destroyed; and besides which what's left of Habsburg-ruled Austria is outside pan-Germanists territory by the time the Germanic Wars / German Civil War / Partition of Austria / etc. Without these requirements, the Confederation stays just that. I believe a large part of our confusion stems from semantics; though I say a republican power now rules Prussia (and overall the German Confederacy), it will not be a republic in the IOTL sense of the United States, or the parliamentary democracies we know today in France, Britain, etc. A weak, elected monarchy (perhaps the House of Haugwitz? I have no idea), or a strong jointly-ruled Directory/Council-style executive (more on this below) would be the most likely form of German republicanism at this point in time.

'Republican' Prussia is still above and beyond the most powerful member of the Confederation, but it is not strong enough to force the overthrow of Bavaria, Saxony, Württemberg, Hesse, Baden, or the other statelets, especially the free cities. AFAIK, the Assembly had a strong president that was historically the Austrian Emperor; this arrangement is not going to continue ITTL obviously, especially with the power of the non-Austrian german states shifting to the Frankfurt Assembly. While the Assembly's Paulskirchenverfassung was a Verfassung des Deutschen Reiches and did declare a German Empire, this arrangement will be revisited ITTL after Frederick William IV's refusal to 'pick up the crown from the gutter,' his subsequent overthrow from the Prussian throne ITTL and the Germanic Wars with the crumbling Austrian Empire.

To quote from Wikipedia;
The version passed included the creation of a hereditary emperor (Erbkaisertum), which had been favoured mainly by the erbkaiserliche group around Gagern, with the reluctant support of the Westendhall group around Heinrich Simon. On the first reading, such a solution had been dismissed. The change of mind came about because all alternative suggestions, such as an elective monarchy, or a Directory government under an alternating chair were even less practicable and unable to find broad support, as was the radical left's demand for a republic, modelled on the United States.

However, following the events ITTL I have outlined above, I believe a Directory-style government, with a powerful parliament (the Assembly) and a Directorate or Council consisting of 3-7 noblemen that jointly rule as the executive power (much like the IOTL Swiss Federal Council) would come about. An elected monarchy is also an option that could likely happen; again, however, without a strong house to take this position the executive power of the Confederacy will be forced to be split between the several powerful nobles of the German states, and the various 'clans' they pull together from weaker noble families that support each claimant.

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EDIT: Rereading your scenario, I'm pretty sure you've just set up a Great War between the Germano-French Entente and the Anglo-Russo-Italian Allies. This is a very very interesting conflict. The Danes will join the allies. Wildcards are the Ottomans and the Americans. The Belgians and Dutch will pray that their neutrality be respected.

I'm not sure a full-fledged 'Great War' akin to OTL WWI would be possible or likely in such a scenario. I'm also not sure Britain will join in either alliance system, as at this point the are still interested in maintain a balance of power in Europe, IIRC. Expect a new 'Congress of Vienna'-style meeting to take place circa 1853-56 to resettle the map of Europe. Possibly held in London. Back to the alliances, Britain is going to be looking to maintain the Ottomans, and continue to check rapidly expanding Russian power. On the other hand, germanophobics will not appreciate the sudden emergence of a very large, rich, populous and powerful pan-German state stretching across all of central Europe, and will want the empire to support their Danish allies. Britain is going to be pulled in several directions, and ultimately where they land is going to depend on the exact nature and actions of any 'flashpoint' leading to a great war.

As it stands now I only see two blocs, and several independent powers outside of them both. The Franco-German Entente, and a Russo-Italian Dual Alliance (possibly with Denmark as well, forming a Triple Alliance).

America as it stands now is still highly isolationist, and as the butterflies that escape the European continent to reach the US are tiny, the American Civil War & Reconstruction is going to happen as per OTL, and that's going to keep the US busy for the next decade or so.
 
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If Hungary goes to the Russians and Austria is about to be absorbed by Germany what is keeping Croats and Slovenians from breaking away. Their national awakening was in full swing at that time and supported by a motivated and experienced military force from the turkish frontier. Considering pan-slavism is also expanding as an idea very rapidly at that time what is stoping Checzs, Croats and Slovenians for joining Russia and helping with the occupation of Hungary, their "ancestral oppressors".

The map I posted shows an independent Slovakia; though realistically it would also fall under Russian dominion rather quickly. An independent Croatia is likely in a future update as Habsburg Austria continues to fall apart; though its going to have to deal with its newly unified Italian neighbor, and the Ottomans to the south. As for the rest, some of the Czechs, Croats, and Slovenians are likely to join helping in Russian-occupied Hungary, both as conspirators and soldiers. But an independent Czechia, Croatia, Slovenia doesn't look likely in the near future.
 
I'm not sure a full-fledged 'Great War' akin to OTL WWI would be possible or likely in such a scenario. I'm also not sure Britain will join in either alliance system, as at this point the are still interested in maintain a balance of power in Europe, IIRC. Expect a new 'Congress of Vienna'-style meeting to take place circa 1853-56 to resettle the map of Europe. Possibly held in London. Back to the alliances, Britain is going to be looking to maintain the Ottomans, and continue to check rapidly expanding Russian power. On the other hand, germanophobics will not appreciate the sudden emergence of a very large, rich, populous and powerful pan-German state stretching across all of central Europe, and will want the empire to support their Danish allies. Britain is going to be pulled in several directions, and ultimately where they land is going to depend on the exact nature and actions of any 'flashpoint' leading to a great war.

As it stands now I only see two blocs, and several independent powers outside of them both. The Franco-German Entente, and a Russo-Italian Dual Alliance (possibly with Denmark as well, forming a Triple Alliance).

America as it stands now is still highly isolationist, and as the butterflies that escape the European continent to reach the US are tiny, the American Civil War & Reconstruction is going to happen as per OTL, and that's going to keep the US busy for the next decade or so.

Why not? The Great War was caused by hyper-realist foreign policy, a culture of social darwinian conflict between nations, and the rise of Germany. Is there any particular reason this wouldn't be the case? The Balkans might be more stable (or not) but the unity of Germany and France on the Continent is probably Britain's worst nightmare. They will try to split them apart and, failing that, ally with whatever other power will oppose them, chiefly Russia and Italy.

A non-Great War world is a fascinating concept though, why do you think it would come about?
 
Why not? The Great War was caused by hyper-realist foreign policy, a culture of social darwinian conflict between nations, and the rise of Germany. Is there any particular reason this wouldn't be the case? The Balkans might be more stable (or not) but the unity of Germany and France on the Continent is probably Britain's worst nightmare. They will try to split them apart and, failing that, ally with whatever other power will oppose them, chiefly Russia and Italy.

There are many, many more causes to OTL's World War I, all equally as important, besides realpolitik, social Darwinism, and Germany.

As well, while the political class of the British Empire might shat their collective selves over the sudden rise of Germany, and their odd understanding with France, also realize that ITTL Russia has greatly increased their empire, especially in Europe. The British don't want either power-bloc to succeed, and are going to spend several years (decades perhaps) in the political wilderness deciding what to do while being drawn between the slavophobics/francophiles-germanophiles and the slavophiles/francophobics-germanophobics, as well as dealing with the many issues of the empire. ITTL the Sepoy Mutiny is still going to take place as per OTL, the butterflies from a greater unified Germany are not going to prevent that, and that event alone will keep the empire busy for at least a decade.

A non-Great War world is a fascinating concept though, why do you think it would come about?

War is a never-ending facet of human history. Don't misunderstand me; there would (will) be wars, in Europe, in this TL - but I highly doubt a WWI-analogue involving all the major European (and world) powers in two power-blocs. At most, at this point in time, I could see a war involving the Franco-German Entente and the Russo-Italian Dual Alliance, circa 1865-75. Possibly the Danes and the Ottomans becoming involved as well. Great Britain would not become involved AFAIK, and nor would the US, or Japan, China, and other regional powers. Such a war would be more like a Crimean War-analogue ;)
 
Ok, last self-bump, I swear. ;)

If I were to make a TL on this topic, how many people would be interested? I'm thinking a basic chronology for the first draft, lasting from 1848-58 or so, after which I'd be moving into highly speculative territory.
 
There are many, many more causes to OTL's World War I, all equally as important, besides realpolitik, social Darwinism, and Germany.

Certainly, but I'd say those are the primary factors. The nature of Germany's rise is key. If they genuinely committed themselves to not provoking Britain it might be possible. The impetus for a strong navy was too strong in German politics IOTL, but perhaps it could be avoided in TTL. I do not have high hopes for avoiding a general European war, however. The pathologies in Occidental civilization were just too overpowering.

As well, while the political class of the British Empire might shat their collective selves over the sudden rise of Germany, and their odd understanding with France, also realize that ITTL Russia has greatly increased their empire, especially in Europe. The British don't want either power-bloc to succeed, and are going to spend several years (decades perhaps) in the political wilderness deciding what to do while being drawn between the slavophobics/francophiles-germanophiles and the slavophiles/francophobics-germanophobics, as well as dealing with the many issues of the empire. ITTL the Sepoy Mutiny is still going to take place as per OTL, the butterflies from a greater unified Germany are not going to prevent that, and that event alone will keep the empire busy for at least a decade.

Splendid Isolation lives? It's an intriguing possibility. Honestly though I think Britain is going to be terrified by Franco-German entente and throw everything it has against it. The Russians are scary but they have no overseas empire and no great navy.

War is a never-ending facet of human history. Don't misunderstand me; there would (will) be wars, in Europe, in this TL - but I highly doubt a WWI-analogue involving all the major European (and world) powers in two power-blocs. At most, at this point in time, I could see a war involving the Franco-German Entente and the Russo-Italian Dual Alliance, circa 1865-75. Possibly the Danes and the Ottomans becoming involved as well. Great Britain would not become involved AFAIK, and nor would the US, or Japan, China, and other regional powers. Such a war would be more like a Crimean War-analogue ;)

Certainly a possibility. Trenches, airmen, total mobilization, a Lost Generation, and the decline of European hegemony? Or a new Great Game, and successors of recognizably "Victorian" culture well into the 20th century? Intriguing.

Ok, last self-bump, I swear. ;)

If I were to make a TL on this topic, how many people would be interested? I'm thinking a basic chronology for the first draft, lasting from 1848-58 or so, after which I'd be moving into highly speculative territory.

Do you even need to ask? Early unified Germany, no WWI...we'd eat that stuff up. The time I spend on this board waxes and wanes, but I'd definitely take a look.
 
Anybody thought of butterflying in the Pan-German nationalist feeling in Austria around the end of the First World War? If Austrian statesmen were suddenly hit with these emotion coupled with a failing counter-insurrgency measure in Hungary could we get the Austrians in power to cut thier losses and allow Hungarian independance with a German Unification of the Austrian lands in OTL Austria-Hungary, maybe holding on to Dalmatia as well?
 
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