AHC: Stronger Italy in World War II

Japan achieves a draw in the Soviet-Japanese Border Wars of 1938-39 thanks to its own side of the PoD and butterflies.
That would take a miracle.:rolleyes: And to repeat it in '41, when the Sovs had T-34s & IJA's idea of AT defense was satchel charges, is ASB.
No Battle of Britain. Germany and Italy adopt a Mediterranean strategy
Knowing Hitler, this strikes me a real long shot.
This prompts Spain and Vichy France to join the Axis
Spain? Not with Franco in charge. He wasn't so stupid. Vichy seems very unlikely, too, tho it's an interesting idea.
Turkey agrees to join the Axis.
Again, very unlikely.
Portugal is invaded and occupied by Axis forces.
Why?:confused: More important, how?:eek:
The Italian military by now matches the German levels of effectiveness.
LOL. Not with the officers Italy had. Nor with Italian doctrine.
America stays neutral.
"Stays"? The U.S. would've had to be neutral in the first place, which was scarcely the case OTL. Also, I'm not clear how you avoid the internal IJA/IJN politics which affected the choice of South or North, & the attack on Pearl Harbor...:confused:
The Soviet war effort is hampered by serious deficiencies of oil, foodstuff, other commodities, and industrial production which the trickle of American aid that manages to reach the Soviet shores can't make up for.
"Trickle"? If the U.S. isn't actively at war, I'd say there's even more material available than OTL... And even more for Britain, too, which means the "defeat of Britain" is less likely, since she'd have more VLR Liberators for A/S patrol than OTL.
the Japanese meet somewhat greater difficulties to make as dramatic gains as their allies; nonetheless they are able to exploit the growing disorganization of the Soviet forces
As noted, IJA overcomes Sov armor how?:confused::rolleyes:
despite significant Axis losses (which prompted the revamping of the fighter pilot training system)
Why?:confused: Since the Germans are convinced they're winning...:rolleyes:
gradually and severely deplete the ranks of the Royal Navy and the RAF faster than its Axis counterparts.
How?:confused:
Combined with the extensive Axis naval build-up, this ensures a significant surface superiority
Against RN? Fat chance.:rolleyes:
decisive submarine supremacy of the Axis forces in the Atlantic.
Dubious. Also, if the RAF was taking increased crew losses, why wouldn't Bomber Command change its approach to reduce them?:confused:
The growing Axis naval advantage is also increased by the loss of the Enigma trick for the British. The UK deciphering of Enigma codes had been lost when France had joined the Axis and it had given hard evidence of the intelligence breach to the Germans.
Really? It didn't come out when France fell. Why would it TTL?
The Wehrmacht has since plug the leak by adopting the slower but more secure Italian ciphers.
What makes you think Italian cyphers were unbreakable? Or unbroken? Hinsley's official history says the Italians were using book codes, not even machine cyphers, & even the C-38 machine cypher (based on Hagelin's) was broken in June '41.
the Japanese stage a general advance and occupy Outer Mongolia and the Russian Far East up to Lake Baikal and the Lena River.
With the assistance of their Breen allies, I presume?:rolleyes:
in America the perspective of intervention kept hitting into a seemingly impassable wall of opposition.

Don't bet on it. By Nov '41, there was already about 70% acceptance of a need for war with Germany, tho there was still opposition. Moreover, you've got to deal with the fact Hitler is an unpredictable loon:rolleyes: who wants war with the U.S. sooner or later. How long does it take before U.S. provocations on the "Neutrality Patrol" give him the excuse he wants?
the USSR would still have been defeated (the availability of the Far East Land-Lease route and the lack of a front with Japan do not seem enough to reverse the other TTL factors stacked against it)
With Hitler in charge? I find that very hard to believe, I'm afraid.
Allied attempts to invade North Africa and Europe would have turned into bloody failures
That's by no means certain.
it is a toss-up whether the backlash from this failure would have caused a collapse of the will to fight in the Anglo-American public opinion, or the Allies would have won the war by nuking Europe.
I am very dubious about "collapse of the will to fight". I'd bet on German cities being nuked.
And the problem with the sonar butterfly would be...
For a start, it makes your easy defeat of convoys even less credible.
I remain skeptical that improved sonar alone can win Britain the Battle of the Atlantic when it has to fight alone a combined KM and RM, both rather stronger than OTL, with no Enigma breach.
Then you just don't understand the problem. Sonar made attacking hostile submarines a great deal easier. And despite the attention it gets, & I don't suggest it's unimportant, Enigma did not decide the Battle. It was entirely possible to defeat U-boats in the Atlantic without it. It's a familiar refrain from me, I'm sure, but just a handful of squadrons of VLR Liberators or Stirlings in Newfoundland in '41 changes everything. If U-boats are getting dramatically better, why wouldn't Britain change her tactics? Moreover, how do U-boats get suddenly better? It's not like the Type 7 design was superceded,:rolleyes: so it's still the standard KM boat, & still really shorter-legged than ideal for the Atlantic. I'll grant, basing at Dakar makes a big difference.:eek: Enough, I suggest, for Britain to see a genuine need to do more to provide better air cover. Like basing A/S a/c in Gander. Or adopting the MAC (bulk carrier or tanker CV conversions) sooner. Why wouldn't she?:confused::confused::rolleyes:
 
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Eurofed's ideas that the Italian Army could be as effective as the Heer with Mussolini in power and without years (maybe decades) of reform, are of course foolish. As is the massive handwave of Italians somehow being able to make use of Libyan oil.

It is worth noteing that WW2 Italy had less industrial output than Japan, and very limited access to coal, metal and oil. To say nothing of the systemic incompatance of Mussolini's regime. Which he himself promoted to prevent anyone else from gaining too much power.

Italy can do better than OTL but there are strict limits and you can replace the Duce, otherwise the regime will start to crumble. Or Italy will be drawn into WW2 on the Allied side not the German.:p
 
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