AHC Stronger Austria - Hungary

[La Rouge Beret]

Inspired by my re reading of the Otto Proshka series of books and a modification for Silent Hunter IV...

Austria - Hungary has been characterised as the millstone around Imperial Germany's neck. What changes would need to occur for Austria - Hungary to stronger economically and militarily in the lead up to WW 1?

 

[LordKalvert]

Very little actually. A strengthened monarchy that could spend money on defense would do it or a more realistic policy towards Russia

The second is the easier. If Austria had been willing to accept Russian occupation of Constantinople, a lot of the pressure on the monarchy would have gone away. At almost any time, Austria could have let the Russians have the straits and taken reasonable compensation in return (Serbia or chunks of Italy)

The first is difficult given Austria's bizarre internal politics. A showdown with the Magyar nobility is a needed. Abolish the dual monarchy, reestablish a unitary state with universal manhood suffrage. Doubt if the nobles are going to pull off a rebellion on that issue. If they try it, smash them, seize their land and take their money. Hopefully, no one comes to their rescue.

Then at the first opportunity, destroy the new legislature and rule by decree.

 

[Blackfox5]

I think a lot would be required. I disagree with LordKalvert as his solutions do not address the root causes of poor A-H performance in WWI.

Certainly, any attempt to abolish the dual monarchy, disband parliament and rule by decree would lead to political instability and civil war; not a recipe for regeneration of the state. Ithink any attempt to do so would cause the collapse of the state. Hungary would likely gain independence, and Germany maybe took over Austria. At best, it is so politically risky that no one could say how it would turn out. Certainly the idea that Franz-Joseph would turn AH around as an efficient dictator does not seem to fit.

The major reasons for AH's poor military performance were:

1) Division of the army into three - an Austrian Landwehr, a Hungarian Honved, and a Common Army. Without a unified system, there is going to be great disparity between the units especially once attrition starts due to combat.

2) The AH Army did not speak a common language. While the officers had German, the enlisted men might speak German, Hungarian, Czech, South Slavic, Polish, Romanian, and Italian. That complicated things greatly. Hard to disband units and incorporate them them together. You can't exactly take your Polish speaking troops in a decimated unit and transfer them to the unit that speaks Italian.

3) Poor leadership throughout the officer corps.

4) AH neglected the military throughout the late 18th century. Both the Austrian and Hungarian parliaments neglected the common army, but even for their own forces, AH overall spent much less than the other great powers. Per capita expenditure was less than Italy and on par with Russia.

5) Still wedded to an obsolete doctrine despite some improvements and modernization.

Overall, AH had supply problems, poor leadership, bad organization, and was just unprepared for a major war.

Some of the problem is based on domestic political institutions, so it is hard to create a unified command without a lot of hand waving. However, if there was some kind of joint parliament defense committee, some of the problems might have been avoided.

AH would have needed to spent a lot more on its armed forces in the decades prior to WWI.

There would need to be a purge of the dead wood in the officer corps, and a system set up to identify promising candidates for promotion, especially among non-Germans.

Pride would need to be swallowed, and AH would need to engage in major military reform, likely under tutelage of Berlin.

All of this is theoretically easy to do, and extremely difficult in practice. The Habsburg Empire still remembered its glory days and lived in delusion.

 

[LordKalvert]

I think a lot would be required. I disagree with LordKalvert as his solutions do not address the root causes of poor A-H performance in WWI.

Certainly, any attempt to abolish the dual monarchy, disband parliament and rule by decree would lead to political instability and civil war; not a recipe for regeneration of the state. Ithink any attempt to do so would cause the collapse of the state. Hungary would likely gain independence, and Germany maybe took over Austria. At best, it is so politically risky that no one could say how it would turn out. Certainly the idea that Franz-Joseph would turn AH around as an efficient dictator does not seem to fit.

The major reasons for AH's poor military performance were:

1) Division of the army into three - an Austrian Landwehr, a Hungarian Honved, and a Common Army. Without a unified system, there is going to be great disparity between the units especially once attrition starts due to combat.

2) The AH Army did not speak a common language. While the officers had German, the enlisted men might speak German, Hungarian, Czech, South Slavic, Polish, Romanian, and Italian. That complicated things greatly. Hard to disband units and incorporate them them together. You can't exactly take your Polish speaking troops in a decimated unit and transfer them to the unit that speaks Italian.

3) Poor leadership throughout the officer corps.

4) AH neglected the military throughout the late 18th century. Both the Austrian and Hungarian parliaments neglected the common army, but even for their own forces, AH overall spent much less than the other great powers. Per capita expenditure was less than Italy and on par with Russia.

5) Still wedded to an obsolete doctrine despite some improvements and modernization.

Overall, AH had supply problems, poor leadership, bad organization, and was just unprepared for a major war.

Some of the problem is based on domestic political institutions, so it is hard to create a unified command without a lot of hand waving. However, if there was some kind of joint parliament defense committee, some of the problems might have been avoided.

AH would have needed to spent a lot more on its armed forces in the decades prior to WWI.

There would need to be a purge of the dead wood in the officer corps, and a system set up to identify promising candidates for promotion, especially among non-Germans.

Pride would need to be swallowed, and AH would need to engage in major military reform, likely under tutelage of Berlin.

All of this is theoretically easy to do, and extremely difficult in practice. The Habsburg Empire still remembered its glory days and lived in delusion.

Your list of problems of the AH Army is quite accurate but there are far more-

Lack of proper uniforms, artillery and ammunitions, poor saddles, lack of machine guns and too few numbers given the large population and many enemies that Austria faced. Many, many more in terms of material. These problems required money which the Austrian political system would never deliver

Only a showdown with the Magyar nobility is going to solve those problems

Austria's greatest problem of course is the large number of foes she has to face- Russia, Italy, Serbia and Romania. She could never be as powerful as that coalition

 

[La Rouge Beret]

All good points and it seems to me that AH needed an external shock in order to instigate these reforms. A POD for me that might be useful would be a political crisis that requires the military to be mobilised and during the mobilisation the fleet of clay are exposed.

Also another point is that AH really needed a diplomat of the calibre of this gentlemen.

Thoughts?

 

[Keb]

All good points and it seems to me that AH needed an external shock in order to instigate these reforms. A POD for me that might be useful would be a political crisis that requires the military to be mobilised and during the mobilisation the fleet of clay are exposed.

Also another point is that AH really needed a diplomat of the calibre of this gentlemen.

Thoughts?

Well, you could have a war with Serbia circa 1905. There was a planned attempt similar to the later events at Sarajevo, only in Mostar ... and with the Emperor as a target. It ultimately failed OTL for much the same reasons Sarajevo almost did, namely: rank incompetence (IIRC, an assassin got near enough to open fire, but chickened out at the last moment).

But, suppose for a moment they succeeded and the Austrians figured out who did it (they suspected, going so far as to try and warn the Emperor away from visiting the city). Killing Franz Ferdinand was one thing, killing the head of state is something else entirely (particularly for Serbia's protector, Russia ... Nicholas remembered well what happened to his father). So, let's say Austria gets a free hand to deal with Serbia (due to public outrage, more than any desire on Franz Ferdinand's part). It's supposed to be a short, victorious war ... it becomes anything but. While Serbia is less powerful, so is Austria and while ultimately victorious (the extra armies and sheer weight of numbers would make a difference), performance is just terrible. Casualties far higher than they should be.

Then, the Ausgleich hits and Vienna initiates War Plan U, abolishing the Dual Monarchy and instituting a unitary state with universal male suffrage.

Two birds with one stone. Three if you count Franz Joseph kicking the bucket a bit early.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

That's a pretty reasonable POD and one I would be keen to explore.

 

[BooNZ]

Well, you could have a war with Serbia circa 1905. There was a planned attempt similar to the later events at Sarajevo, only in Mostar ... and with the Emperor as a target. It ultimately failed OTL for much the same reasons Sarajevo almost did, namely: rank incompetence (IIRC, an assassin got near enough to open fire, but chickened out at the last moment).

But, suppose for a moment they succeeded and the Austrians figured out who did it (they suspected, going so far as to try and warn the Emperor away from visiting the city). Killing Franz Ferdinand was one thing, killing the head of state is something else entirely (particularly for Serbia's protector, Russia ... Nicholas remembered well what happened to his father). So, let's say Austria gets a free hand to deal with Serbia (due to public outrage, more than any desire on Franz Ferdinand's part). It's supposed to be a short, victorious war ... it becomes anything but. While Serbia is less powerful, so is Austria and while ultimately victorious (the extra armies and sheer weight of numbers would make a difference), performance is just terrible. Casualties far higher than they should be.

Then, the Ausgleich hits and Vienna initiates War Plan U, abolishing the Dual Monarchy and instituting a unitary state with universal male suffrage.

Two birds with one stone. Three if you count Franz Joseph kicking the bucket a bit early.

I like your timing, but in 1905 Serbia's military is unlikely to cause even A-H to raise a sweat - especially when it knows Russia is distracted.

I understand (open to correction) that by 1905 there were secret agreements between Bulgaria and Serbia, including military commitments that would have sufficed as a casus belli. That said, with Russia occupied elsewhere, Bulgaria is unlikely to honour such commitments.

Alternatively, in 1906, Conrad convinces the powers that be to deal with Serbia (for whatever reason), which is a huge success (i.e. uneventful). With improved popularity, Conrad manages to sell a 'pre-emptive' war against Italy - with success but lots of life lessons.

Or alternatively, a contemporary approach, Serbs assassinate the Emperor, so A-H invade Italy without delay...

 

[Keb]

I like your timing, but in 1905 Serbia's military is unlikely to cause even A-H to raise a sweat - especially when it knows Russia is distracted.

A-H was only really beginning its own reform cycle around that time. If anything, its performance in 1914 would be a significant improvement over its performance in ATL 1905. The Austrian artillery arm was badly, badly outdated (no quick-firing mounts and still using bronze components instead of steel) and there was a severe shortage of machine guns.

And while I have no doubt Austria-Hungary could roll over Serbia (and fairly quickly, if it mobilizes and drops both A and B Staffel on Serbia instead of re-routing them to Galizia like OTL ... so we're talking about two or three additional armies), I can see it sustaining very heavy casualties in doing so (especially given the terrain and infrastructure in the Balkans). It could very well be a sobering lesson for the Austrians who expected a quick, easy victory.

Add Conrad's ... lacking skills (the man was a skilled organizer and a good strategist, he was just utterly incapable of taking into account the abilities of the army he commanded) to the whole mess and you could very well wind up with a Winter War, 1905 edition.

That said ... there's an interesting upside. Gunther Burstyn proposed tanks around this time in Austria (and it was a pretty interesting design, far ahead of its time, with a rotating turret and build closer to post-war WWI tanks). We could very well see Austria pioneer armoured warfare.

Alternatively, in 1906, Conrad convinces the powers that be to deal with Serbia (for whatever reason), which is a huge success (i.e. uneventful). With improved popularity, Conrad manages to sell a 'pre-emptive' war against Italy - with success but lots of life lessons.

Or alternatively, a contemporary approach, Serbs assassinate the Emperor, so A-H invade Italy without delay...

I actually rather like this scenario, but the problem is ... well, Franz Ferdinand was categorically opposed to war (at least, opposed to war before he had a chance to bring Austria's own house in order) and Conrad was very much appointed by Franz Ferdinand and reliant on the man to maintain his position (OTL, he maintained it during the war due to an odd aversion in Austria to make too many radical changes).

While war with Italy had extensive support, ultimately it requires suppoort from the top and neither Franz Joseph nor Franz Ferdinand were that interested in it (and cosistently opposed it).

That said, I wouldn't put it past some members of the upper strata of Austria to engineer a scenario where Austria-Hungary must go to war with Italy (or for some jackass in Italy to do the same, with Austria seemingly on the cusp of collapse). Franz Ferdinand's potential ascension to the throne was a tangled mess of politics and fears (mostly by Hungarians, though the biggest confrontations haven't occurred quite yet by 1905).

 

[Gannt the chartist]

Kalvert is right, The Issue is the Magyar political establishment and the entrenched position it is put in by Germany/Prussia. For most of late 19th century Germany has a vested interest in keeping A-H weak and incapable of its own revanche. It is capable of saying NO to any reform it will say NO to any reform that does not further its own sectional interest.

It’s a mistake to think of Hungary as anything other than a state in personal Union with the Monarch. E.g. under Hungarian Law officers of the Common Army were regarded as officers of a Foreign Power while in Hungary.

By the early 20th century the Magyars who are well aware of Plan U. Just ponder that, the General Staff has an active plan for civil war against you, you have a veto on their budget how much do you want that army to be capable?

Any major reform of the Common army (which is nigh on impossible that late anyway) depends on removal of the Magyar veto. It’s that Veto that prevents investment in the army after the 1908 mobilisation fiasco ( they had to float a loan on Wall St to pay for the mobilisation because of the veto) featuring massed desertion, mothers lying on the tracks and Hungary saying, no.

If you are going to do anything Plan U has to come first with no great prospect of rapid success.

The addition of another army to an attack on Serbia even in 1905 has no great prospect for success given the OTL 1914 performance which is criminally incompetent. There is never a realistic prospect of being able to put the whole of the A-H army against Serbia. The terrain and logistics do not permit it and even in 1905 the mere threat of a possible Russian mobilisation ( the troops in European Russia were at full strength only 2nd and 3rd line reserves sent to the Far East) means at least 3 armies have to be kept in Galicia.

Cutting out the dead wood presupposes there is any live wood left. Given the career prospects of an Austrian Officer for the previous 40 years the answer to that is probably no. The Best and Brightest are what you got in 1914.

Austria Under the tutelage of the German army is just silly( not least because the German Army would go on to lose two major wars resulting in the destruction of its own nation). The army of a princely state in India, a colonial dependency or a modernising state goes under tutelage, that of even a third class European power does not.

It would be seen as the takeover of the empire by Germans it’s an abject surrender of the house of Hapsburg and is probably the only thing that would unite the rest of the Empire with the Hungarians.


Preemptive wars are right out. It took the assassination of the heir and the blank cheque to get any level of popular support ( although that faded pdq) a contrived situation is likely to result in a mobilization like the 1908 one.

After which Hungary will say nem.

Conrad, don't get me started on that moronic self serving, lying incompetent.
(lesson #1 of the Russo Japanese war - the Japanese are timid).

 

[Intosh]

Hard to disband units and incorporate them them together. You can't exactly take your Polish speaking troops in a decimated unit and transfer them to the unit that speaks Italian.

In reality, you never do this kind of things except in a real bad situation. It is always better to rebuild an unit even from scraches (from the cadres) if it was decimated, than transfer the survivors to another unit. It can broke the morale and efficiency of both units.

You never disolved one unit, it is the worst thing to do in an army, it is by tradition one of worst military punishment.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

Teh millstone around Austrias neck was not teh Hungarian nation - it was the Emperor himself. FJ was getting old and did want to aviod conflict (thus over many years he granted too much vs Hungary instead of following the counsel of FF)

Remove FJ 20 years early and the Empire will have a stronger performance (though underlying problems will remain)

FF firmly believed that a modus vivendi with Russia could be found. Austria was not fearing that Russia occupies Constantinople - it feared a strong slavic state in the Balkans.

Austria won't emerge as a superpower without chnages in the first half of teh 19th century, but it needs a better leader before the turn of the century. (BTW Hungary could be appeased by adding "serbian" lands to its half of the Empire )

 

[LordKalvert]

Teh millstone around Austrias neck was not teh Hungarian nation - it was the Emperor himself. FJ was getting old and did want to aviod conflict (thus over many years he granted too much vs Hungary instead of following the counsel of FF)

Remove FJ 20 years early and the Empire will have a stronger performance (though underlying problems will remain)

FF firmly believed that a modus vivendi with Russia could be found. Austria was not fearing that Russia occupies Constantinople - it feared a strong slavic state in the Balkans.

Austria won't emerge as a superpower without chnages in the first half of teh 19th century, but it needs a better leader before the turn of the century. (BTW Hungary could be appeased by adding "serbian" lands to its half of the Empire )

That's another way of looking at the problem. Certainly FF had a much better grasp on the Empire's problems than FJ who's thought was stuck in 1848 .

Reconciliation with Russia was possible and FF certainly wished it. There's no real reason to fear Russian control over the straits (that was more Italy's and Britain's problem) and by 1900 at the latest neither of them showed much interest in fighting over it anyway.

Ultimately, reconciliation with Russia is Austria's only real hope for Austria cannot win the peace after a war. Even if the CP had proved successful in WWI, then Austria would at best become a minor appendage to the German Reich

Internally, centralization and reducing Magyar power would have been important

 

[Halagaz]

Teh millstone around Austrias neck was not teh Hungarian nation - it was the Emperor himself. FJ was getting old and did want to aviod conflict (thus over many years he granted too much vs Hungary instead of following the counsel of FF)

Remove FJ 20 years early and the Empire will have a stronger performance (though underlying problems will remain)

FF firmly believed that a modus vivendi with Russia could be found. Austria was not fearing that Russia occupies Constantinople - it feared a strong slavic state in the Balkans.

Austria won't emerge as a superpower without chnages in the first half of teh 19th century, but it needs a better leader before the turn of the century. (BTW Hungary could be appeased by adding "serbian" lands to its half of the Empire )

FF's plan of enacting a coup in Hungary and bringing it under stricter Vienna control might have actually gone by undisturbed if he tries it before 1905 or so, but if he waits too long...the resulting rebellion could draw foreign involvement and blow up in his face.

The last thing the Hungarians wanted was more non-Hungarians in the country. When Istvan Tisza was offered that same deal with Serbian lands he adamantly refused.