AHC: Strangle Russia in the Crib

Alright, ive noticed lately a lot of timelines, heck a majority even, have a Russia that is at least a Eurasian power, if not a global one. So i was wondering, with any POD you wish, how do you keep Russia from becoming so important, or, even existing? And, what nation(s) take its place?
 
Alright, ive noticed lately a lot of timelines, heck a majority even, have a Russia that is at least a Eurasian power, if not a global one. So i was wondering, with any POD you wish, how do you keep Russia from becoming so important, or, even existing? And, what nation(s) take its place?
Sweden wins the Great Northern War. Better yet, it doesn't make the war so against its favour.
Therefore, Sweden will replace Russia in Europe. I don't know what it will be replaced by in Siberia, however. Or maybe Russia still has Siberia ITTL?
 
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Have the Timurids annex the Golden Horde, I think the Timurids can wipe Russia off the map.
 
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I'm thinking that another nation takes Russia's place though, like a larger Khazaria or even an East Slavic "Bulgarian" nation if Kotrag's Bulgars end up unifying the East Slavs, as opposed to the South Slavic "Bulgarian" nation made from Asparukh's Bulgars forming an alliance with the Seven Tribes of Moesia. On the other hand, having the Golden Horde compass all of OTL Russia, Kazakhstan and Siberia might work, regardless of what religion they adopt.
 
How big could Sweden have gotten?
That's quite hard to guess. (On closer inspection, I guess that the Cossacks would dominate OTL Russian Siberia.) One of the things that may possibly happen through the war is the destruction of St. Petersburg as the Swedes push inward. Its Baltic territories will be strengthened as Swedish, and may push inward. The Baltic Sea becomes the Swedish Lake, while the Black Sea becomes Turkish. I should stop doing guesswork- although interested, I am not the best person in this forum to talk to about Sweden.
 
That's quite hard to guess. (On closer inspection, I guess that the Cossacks would dominate OTL Russian Siberia.) One of the things that may possibly happen through the war is the destruction of St. Petersburg as the Swedes push inward. Its Baltic territories will be strengthened as Swedish, and may push inward. The Baltic Sea becomes the Swedish Lake, while the Black Sea becomes Turkish. I should stop doing guesswork- although interested, I am not the best person in this forum to talk to about Sweden.

Sweden controlling the Baltic is one thing, but either Sweden or the Ottomans taking what Russia has otherwise . . . Russia isn't that weak and they aren't that strong.

You need a POD that keeps Kievan Rus from being brought back together again, like the princes of Moscovy not being able to stabilize succession (and limit who got a share of anything).
 
Another possibility is to have Poland take greater advantage of the Time of Troubles by annexing more Russian territory; perhaps even Moscow itself. That should weaken Russia enough to keep it out of European affairs for a century or two, and delay its eastward advance as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_Troubles
 
So where is the new Russian capital going to be located? Kazan or somewhere in Siberia?

Yaroslavl initially, I suppose, as IOTL. If there's some problems with it (such as the Polish being too close), probably Kostroma or Nizhny Novgorod.
Kazan is probably far too recently conquered. Siberia isn't colonized much yet (though I suspect that would happen on schedule, if not faster). I suppose Arkhangelsk is a possibility.

On-topic: I suppose a POD of, vaguely, "Mongol forces don't randomly stop at Ignach Cross in April 1238 and continue to Novgorod" could probably work. Even if Novgorod isn't entirely destroyed, it would probably butterfly away their victories over Sweden in 1240 and the Teutons in 1242, so a lot of their territory would be taken over by these powers.
 
You could try to establish an earlier, stronger Ruthenia (OTL Ukraine and Belarus, plus some additional eastern land) with a capital in Kiev, while at the same time keeping everything else in OTL European Russia fractured and disunited. Maybe Khazaria in the European part of the Caucasus, Bjarmia in the northern parts of OTL European Russia, etc.. And everything east of the Ural mountains (or rather east of the river Ob, as regional Ural powers might expand their borders at least there) would be a tribal region inhabited by various Turkic people, with a low population density for most of the following history.
 
How'bout Grand Duchy of Lithuania (as successor of Principality of Polotsk) unifying what is now known as Russia instead of Muscovy?
Though it wouldn't be Russia as is "Muscovy-centered" Russia, it still will be a great Eastern power. Think of GDL-centered union with "heartland" of Russia, and Vilnya (Vilnus) as capital, without forming Commonwealth with Poland.
But then...we just strangled Muscovy and created a different Slavic superpower which is probably not what topic starter asked.
 
Alright, ive noticed lately a lot of timelines, heck a majority even, have a Russia that is at least a Eurasian power, if not a global one. So i was wondering, with any POD you wish, how do you keep Russia from becoming so important, or, even existing? And, what nation(s) take its place?

Well, I guess having another giant East-Slavic Eurasian or global power in place of Russia does not qualify.
I mean 'Russia' in this context is any polity where majority of population is Eastern Slavs.
So you may conquer the East Slavs by any other polity - Lithuanians, Swedes, Khazars, Hungarians or anyone else. But it is almost impossible to remove the Slavs from this territory.
So the only way to keep Russia from becoming big and important is to keep the Russians disunited. A lot of Russian principalities squabbling among themselves will do.
As a matter of fact Rus was that way before before the Mongol conquest.
It was never too much united in best days in 10th and 11th centuries. And in the 12-th century any hope of real unity was lost for good.
In the 12th century Rus was not a serious threat to its' neighbors and the processes of further disintegration were developing.
What you need is a POD to avoid Mongol yoke, get rid of Mongol invasion and conquest - keep the Mongols inside Asia - for example Temutchin died early and the Mongols started fratricidal war of succession, or Chengiz Khan was never born at all or something like that.
The natural development of Rus without Mongol invasion will be -
a lot of 'Russian' states competing with each, fighting each other, making alliances with foreign powers like Lithuania, Poland, Hungury or Kipchaks against each other. Even before Mongol invasion there were a few Grand Princes, in some time there will be more of them.

The 'Russians' before Mongols did not have a tradition of stable and strong central power.
The Russia that the world knows and fears is 'Moscovite state' as a successor of the Mongol 'Golden Horde'.
I mean it was the Mongols who created the "Terrible Russia" with all-powerful ruler, the centralistic aggressive state modeled after the Mongol Khanate.
You know that it was the Mongols who installed the Grand Prince of Rus over the Mongol Russia with powers to extract tribute and exercise authority over all Russian lands controlled by the Horde. So the Mongols created the unity of the Russians, they united Russia and when the Golden Horde disintegrated the Russians used their unity against the Mongols.

So, without Mongol invasion there will be a lot of "Russias" who will spend most of their aggressive energy fighting each other. Best case scenario is have all these Russias united for a short period of time under some charismatic leader - equivalent of Holy Roman Empire in the time of its decay when HRE emperors did not have any real power.
By the 15th century all these Russian states will forget that they had some sort of unity long time ago. They will be different states like France to England or Portugal.
 
Would it be possible for the Finnic peoples, such as the Mordavins, to maintain their territorial integrity. If my knowledge of the pre Viking Rus is correct this will reduce the Rus people to a corridor going from Novgorod down to Kiev. If this is practical or even plausible, however, I have no idea.
Another idea is to create a situation where the Rus people split into several ethnic groups. This would help to keep the states separated over time. Perhaps a longer period of disunion. A further measure would be to religiously divide these states. Perhaps a catholic state in the part closest to Poland, an Orthodox state in the Kiev region, perhaps a Russian church in the north, and this is probably getting to ASB levels but a more successful Muslim state could spread Islam in the western part of Russia up to for example Vladimir or such. I do not know ho plausible the second two religious splits would be, but an Orthodox and Catholic split seems at least some what plausible.
 
This happened. We call them Russians, Belorussians and Ukrainians. I'm not sure when it happened though. If it was early enough, you could get a Russia split between them.

Yes. But I meant more groups splitting off in what is today Russia proper. However, if we could find what caused those splits we could have a good basis for what would cause another split
 

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Yes. But I meant more groups splitting off in what is today Russia proper. However, if we could find what caused those splits we could have a good basis for what would cause another split
I guess the fact that Ukraine and Belarus were annexed to Muscowian Russia relaitively late, having been parts of Poland- Lithuania before.
 
There were the ideas that with surviving Novgorod being the center of unification for Northern Russia pomory culture could have formed separate ethnicity (used in a few "No Mongol Invasion" timelines).
 
Would it be possible for the Finnic peoples, such as the Mordavins, to maintain their territorial integrity. If my knowledge of the pre Viking Rus is correct this will reduce the Rus people to a corridor going from Novgorod down to Kiev. If this is practical or even plausible, however, I have no idea.
Another idea is to create a situation where the Rus people split into several ethnic groups. This would help to keep the states separated over time. Perhaps a longer period of disunion. A further measure would be to religiously divide these states. Perhaps a catholic state in the part closest to Poland, an Orthodox state in the Kiev region, perhaps a Russian church in the north, and this is probably getting to ASB levels but a more successful Muslim state could spread Islam in the western part of Russia up to for example Vladimir or such. I do not know ho plausible the second two religious splits would be, but an Orthodox and Catholic split seems at least some what plausible.
I am afraid the Finnic peoples were doomed against Slavs. No way. Only ASB.

As for splitting Rus into several ethnic groups.
First of all what makes you so sure that there ever was one Rus ethnicity?
Rus was more a geographical notion. It was the territory controlled by the elite formed by the descendants of the Rus Vikings mixed with the local Slavic elites. And where the princes' authority belonged to Ryurikid dynasty. Afterwards it was cemented by the Chritianity.
Before the Vikings conquest there were several distinct Slav tribes which kept their separate ethnic identities after the conquest. When the Rus political disintegration and defragmentation started it went along the old borders between these tribes.
So by the 12th century we still have 5-7 'Russian' ethnicities inside Rus and without Mongol invasion we might have the same number of independent 'Russian' states.

After 12th century any religious split is highly unlikely.
Before the 12th century the Ryurikids would not make it possible, they were too strong and politically united.

There was one scenario though - Khazaria-wank:
the territory of OTL Rus is splitted into two almost equal parts - the Northern part controlled by the Vikings and the Southern part controlled by the great Khazarian Empire.
In this case the Southern part is either Muslim or Jewish.
The Northern part is either Christian or Muslim or Jewish.
In this ATL the cultural and political difference between the Northern and Southern parts of Russia will be even greater.
 
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