AHC: Stable First World Yugoslavia

Your challenge, should you chose to accept it, is to make a Yugoslavia that was created in the same way as in OTL but by 2011 be a stable first world nation.
How it gets there does not mater.
 
Well they already had socially owned businesses and enterprises as opposed to the planned economies of the USSR and Warsaw Pact countries. Seems to of worked pretty well for them with their outperforming other eastern European states. What really shot their kneecaps off though appears to have been the oil crisis in the 70s and then the measures they had to take to access the loans they needed to keep the economy going. Perhaps they see the writing on the wall during the crisis or dig their heels in a bit more with the IMF after it when negotiating the loans and decide to move to even more of a free market economy ala China? Might even be enough to butterfly away the Reagan administration targeting their economy with the other communist countries of Europe if they can see what to them looks like Yugoslavia steadily moving in the right direction. Of course without a viable replacement for Tito when he shuffles off the mortal coil things are still likely to go pear shaped.
 
Dodge the nationalism and use Yugoslavia as an example of a communist nation that is evolving into a free nation. The country stays economically prosperous through the 1970s, and fixes its slump in the 1980s by increasing productivity and also strangling the influence of murderous nationalists like Milosevic and Karadzic while it can still be done.

The Soviet Union's fall forces Yugoslavia into the same boat as the nations of Eastern Europe. Massive demonstrations are common through the late 1980s, and after the wall falls, Yugoslavia transitions into a democracy based around a fairly loose federation. This allows a considerable level of local control while still allowing the issues relevant to the whole country to be handled by Belgrade. Yugoslavia applies to join the EU in 1993, and joins as part of the big expansion of 2004. The Eastern European states grow into much of the EU's new industrial base in the 2000s, and Yugoslavia's infrastructure, in better shape than most of the former Eastern Bloc nations to start with, is improved further. By 2011, Yugoslavia is one of the better-off nations of the former Communist bloc.
 
Dodge the nationalism and use Yugoslavia as an example of a communist nation that is evolving into a free nation. The country stays economically prosperous through the 1970s, and fixes its slump in the 1980s by increasing productivity and also strangling the influence of murderous nationalists like Milosevic and Karadzic while it can still be done.

The Soviet Union's fall forces Yugoslavia into the same boat as the nations of Eastern Europe. Massive demonstrations are common through the late 1980s, and after the wall falls, Yugoslavia transitions into a democracy based around a fairly loose federation. This allows a considerable level of local control while still allowing the issues relevant to the whole country to be handled by Belgrade. Yugoslavia applies to join the EU in 1993, and joins as part of the big expansion of 2004. The Eastern European states grow into much of the EU's new industrial base in the 2000s, and Yugoslavia's infrastructure, in better shape than most of the former Eastern Bloc nations to start with, is improved further. By 2011, Yugoslavia is one of the better-off nations of the former Communist bloc.

Are the means of production still publicly owned, or do they transition to free market capitalism?
 
Are the means of production still publicly owned, or do they transition to free market capitalism?

They transition, but not with the torrid pace of much of the Eastern European nations and Russia in particular. The economic situation is fairly similar to France, a wide public sector but a well-working private sector alongside it.
 
Maybe the Yugo is better-designed and sells a lot more, bringing in export revenue and improving the economy. People are content with the way things are and ignore the demagogues later...

Peace through automotive engineering?
 
Maybe the Yugo is better-designed and sells a lot more, bringing in export revenue and improving the economy. People are content with the way things are and ignore the demagogues later...

Peace through automotive engineering?

If we're going down that route, you want to start much earlier. The Yugo is a Fiat 124 clone. Perhaps instead of that, The Yugoslavians build an auto industry starting after WWII and enter the North American market on a small scale in the 1960s, building a strong foothold by the 1980s. They wouldn't be like the Japanese, but they would be well ahead of the Koreans, and somewhat bigger than the French or Swedish by that point. That's easily possible, and that could well provide many, many jobs by the 1980s.
 
An export drive could help, the earlier the better. Perhaps instead of cars though, Yugoslavia could focus on "white goods". If they could make autos OTL then they could make washing machines etc, particularly as post war Yugoslavia had the requisite labor pool and cheap currency. With luck, it would encourage substantial foreign direct investment and allow Yugoslavia to amass enough hard currency to get further loans to cover the 70's oil shocks.
That said, this and similar scenarios would require a more economically liberal leadership than OTL.
 
If Yougoslavia ends up on the western side of the Iron Curtain after the war then there is a definite potential for the country to become as well off as OTL Italy by 2011.

Building a stable political system will be key, but federalism of the Canadian kind could provide a could model on which to build up good governance. The presence of a clear threat in the shape of the Soviet Union will also hold the country together, especially if Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary become USSR satellite states as per OTL.

As far as the economy is concerned, the tourist potential of Yugoslavia will be tapped much earlier than was the case OTL. If the Yugoslavs play their cards right they could even leapfrog ahead of Spain and Greece. The brown coal seams of Serbia and Kosovo provide a good basis for heavy industry and steel making. The country also has a significant hydroelectric potential, and large mineral deposits. The energy situation of Yugoslavia will in many respects be much better than the Italian one for example, so there is even the potential for Yugoslavia to be ahead of Italy by 2011.
 
If Yougoslavia ends up on the western side of the Iron Curtain after the war then there is a definite potential for the country to become as well off as OTL Italy by 2011.

Given the economic comparator states (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy) I think this entirely depends on what the Yugoslavian CP does between 1945 and 1970; and, to what extent the US is willing to intervene into Yugoslavia to ensure an anti-communist government.

My suspicions are that Yugoslavia will wait far longer for the consumer boom; that Yugoslavia's CP will only be able to be repressed by a civil war that will make Greece look like a picnic lunch. Moreover, I think it is highly likely that the Yugoslavian CP will succeed, even if Yugoslavia is occupied by British forces.

Getting Yugoslavia into the "First World" of anti-communist nations, with "long boom" capitalism and nominal parliamentary democracy is more than difficult after 1942.

yours,
Sam R.
 
Given the economic comparator states (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy) I think this entirely depends on what the Yugoslavian CP does between 1945 and 1970; and, to what extent the US is willing to intervene into Yugoslavia to ensure an anti-communist government.

My suspicions are that Yugoslavia will wait far longer for the consumer boom; that Yugoslavia's CP will only be able to be repressed by a civil war that will make Greece look like a picnic lunch. Moreover, I think it is highly likely that the Yugoslavian CP will succeed, even if Yugoslavia is occupied by British forces.

Getting Yugoslavia into the "First World" of anti-communist nations, with "long boom" capitalism and nominal parliamentary democracy is more than difficult after 1942.

yours,
Sam R.

The Yugoslavs communits have always been a more independent bunch, so while they will have a significant influence post war. I could see them working with other parties to an extent, especially in helping secure social improvements and the like.
The Italian Communist Party was very strong as well (and openly Stalinist to boot!) but this did not preclude Italy from becoming a first world nation.
 
Grudgingly, I will accept only half way measures to point you to one possible way. This time, the chips will be left as they fall.

Circa mid 1980's Yugoslavia was a fairly centralist economy socialist/communist country. Partly, some free market did exist. For example, a huge RV went across those countries to Moscow and back. Since leaving the west, the first they found scouring powder (Comet, etc.) was when almost back, while in Yugoslavia. It was low grade diatomaceous earth in very lose powder form.

Tito, of course, left the USSR orbit because of assassination attempts courtesy of Stalin. The west was overjoyed to have a kink in the iron curtain, a thorn in the side. There were still some purges, but on a lessened form. There still were large numbers of people fleeing to Austria -- until about 1960.

Then Tito was advised to open the borders. Why? Because he apparently was told that what would happen is Italy/Austria (and Australia, the main goal of most would be emmigrants) would be forced to adopt their immigration policies, as turned out to be the case. And flooded with other applicants, huge waiting lists were the norm, like a decade. I have personally met devout socialists railing at the 'decline of socialism' while in mining towns in Australia's outback, 7 years ago.

One POD a couple of weeks ago asked for similar methods. I suggested if, repeat, if Tito swallowed his pride and pulled a Franco (reinstitiution of the Monarchy), there would be a chance. True, as another pointed out truthfully, Serbian monarchy was extreme, but it would have helped.

Also, breaking up to multiple grades of capitalism, the obvious of Slovenia on the fast track, would have also helped. Still we would have seen a Italian style North/South issue, perhaps with a some what dead center of Serbia (present day Macedonia is on the border with somewhat affluent Greece, but there could be problems still). Or India, with its economic powerhouse South and more traditional North.
 
To get a stable Yugoslavia of what ever "world" you would need the majority of the people wanting to live in Yugoslavia rather then just "intelectual" elites or certain interest groups. The only two groups that actually wanted to live in Yugoslavia were bosnian muslims and montenegrins to an extent. Everyone else had a bigger or smaller issue with it. For the Serbs it wasn't serbian enough while for everyone else it was to serbian, the western parts didn't not want to pay for impovereshed east etc...

To get a functioning Yugoslavia one needs a POD in early 19th century at the latest.
 

abc123

Banned
To get a stable Yugoslavia of what ever "world" you would need the majority of the people wanting to live in Yugoslavia rather then just "intelectual" elites or certain interest groups. The only two groups that actually wanted to live in Yugoslavia were bosnian muslims and montenegrins to an extent. Everyone else had a bigger or smaller issue with it. For the Serbs it wasn't serbian enough while for everyone else it was to serbian, the western parts didn't not want to pay for impovereshed east etc...

To get a functioning Yugoslavia one needs a POD in early 19th century at the latest.

True.
On the other hand, if no coup in March 1941. and Yugoslavia remains in Axis but non-beligerent, and somehow manages to stay so until end of the war, and if Banovina Croatia survives after the war, it might even be possible...
 
Perhaps Bush Senior loses, as his adminstration was the one that decided, after being explictily told that to withdraw aid from Yugoslavia would led to ethic strife, passed a bill which withdrew all aid from Yugoslavian Republics unless they caused ethic strife ... sorry... 'seceded'.
 
Andrei Zhadanov is less of an alcoholic (if that's non-ASB), and so lives long enough to succeed Stalin. Unlike OTL Khrushchev, Zhadanov pursues a harsh anti-Tito policy, applying every pressure short of invasion. The continuing Soviet threat forces Yugoslavia into the Western camp and perhaps eventually NATO (probably not until after Tito's death though). Further US weapons sales could develop into a preferential trade relationship.
 

Clipper747

Banned
First World Yugoslavia?

You'd need to have:

No nationalism -or-
Single religion homogeneous population -or-
WWII bypasses Yugo altogether -or-
Ottoman Empire soundly defeated 1389
 
Can it be a smaller Yugoslavia than the country was at its maximum size? Its survival prospects are better if it can lose Croatia and Slovenia and compromise on a partition of Bosnia without wars over any of them.
 
Without Slovenia and Croatia and certain parts of BiH it is not Yugoslavia but simply Serbia with areas inhabited by national minorities forming majorities.
 
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