AHC: Spain wins the Spanish-American War

Germany gets involved on Spain's side. Germany was nervous about the rising power of the US in the Pacific, to the point where Kaiser Wilhelm II had invasion plans meant to defang them as a threat to German interests in that region, so maybe in a moment of insanity, the Kaiser orders German troops to land on Cuba and engage the Rough Riders.

Three problems with this though:

At this point in time, tensions were beginning to rise in Europe, so that was where Germany's focus was most centred, rather than conflict in the US.

The British would freak out if the Germans tried to reinforce their influence in the Pacific in a apparent challenge to British influence, so I don't see them taking German intervention in the Spanish-American War very well.

Germany simply did not have the ships to send a substantial military force across the Atlantic.
 
Spain cannot win the war. The US is closer to the Spanish West Indies than Spain to the Canary Islands. The US industrial potential is at full potential while Spain cannot match with the US.

Spain can however get favorable terms. Rather than sending the Navy to the Caribbean they could operate in the Canary Islands and hit the East Coast to divert US Navy to protect the Coast while this may help to slow land forces to land.

The Philippines is not necessarily lost (but possibly sold later). Puerto Rico can be saved as well. Cuba is possibly lost but maybe in other terms.

Spain can realistically only win if the World Powers threaten the US but that is not going to happen.
 
Spain simply needs to prepare itself for the war. If it wasn't for interference from certain economical sectors Spain could have had a small yet effective submarine fleet. The war is to be decided in the seas as the US would have many difficulties occuppying any of the Spanish overseas provinces for a long time due to tropical diseases (by August 1898 1/3 of the American forces in Cuba were out of combat duties due to disease) while these weren't that effective among the Spaniards. Some Spanish admirals, notably Villaamil noticed the US fleet buildup and prepared contingency plans aswell as pressuring the government to increase the spending on the fleet and updating the ships. Let's say that Villaamil succeeds in his push for a renewed navy but by 1898 the Spanish Fleet is still inferior. However as the admiral had already expected, the average US ship was slow compared to the Spanish destroyer and he planned to force the blockade of Cuba out with a series of rapid attacks from Puerto Rico and devised a plan to either raid or invade the US Eastern Coast, burning the shipyards of Bath, Philadelphia and Norfolk which at the time were very thinly defended and had ships in construction. American defences were so weak that the Spanish could even try to steal the almost complete USS Alabama from the Philadelphia shipyards. Given the shipyards were mostly undefended US ship production could be crippled with a series of attacks, forcing the Americans to play on the defensive to keep their capital ships still on the seas. These attacks were also intended to cause panic and force the US government to move their ships from Cuba to defend the mainland. If the Spanish hold out until the summer with their navy still in place the US would have to lift the blockade of Cuba due to the hurricane season. An American landing could easily be repelled by the local forces, as the Spanish had more troops only in Cuba than the US had altogether during the first weeks of the war. Add a more competent leader like Weyler and US forces could easily be weakened in fort assaults and eventually expelled from Cuba. The Philippines are a different issue, but if the US loses the Battle of Manila (maybe by feinting them into the Bay of Subic instead) US efforts in the Pacific would be stopped until reinforcements come from California and Hawaii, but these could be stopped by defending Guam and placing fast ships in the Caroline and Marianas Islands which would harass transports. Assuming all of this happens the war would result into a stalemate but the Spanish would have the initiative and could attempt to punish the US by landing somewhere across it's enormous east coast.

Overall I think Spain had a chance to defeat and even humilliate the US should the Spanish government listen to the navy's advices during the 1890's. A couple of months ago I made a mini-scenario describing that TL which in turn was inspired from a TL I read somewhere else.
 
^Still I am not fond of Spanish colonial government's foolishness because of corruption and racism unless those idiots especially the corrupt priests("Padre Damaso" a term for late Jose Rizal regarding corrupt priests) sitting like kings, gets replaced by someone better in metter @Drex.
 
The Spanish should sell or give the territory of the Tagalog Republic(Luzon) to somebody else (the British) before the war instead of trying to make peace with them via Aguinaldo, but in reality they should had lost that territory in the 7 years war to Britain with the compensation of Maluku, since the natives of Maluku prefer the Spanish more than the people of Luzon.

I think that would be a better scenario for the Spanish.
 
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The Spanish should sell or give the territory of the Tagalog Republic(Luzon) to somebody else (the British) before the war instead of trying to make peace with them via Aguinaldo, but in reality they should had lost that territory in the 7 years war to Britain with the compensation of Maluku, since the natives of Maluku prefer the Spanish more than the people of Luzon.

I think that would be a better scenario for the Spanish.

A 7 years PoD has too many butterflies which may avoid the Spanish-American War. OP states he wants Spain to win, not necessarily avoid it.

Selling it to the British or Germans seems also doable in the late 19th century right?
 
A 7 years PoD has too many butterflies which may avoid the Spanish-American War. OP states he wants Spain to win, not necessarily avoid it.

Selling it to the British or Germans seems also doable in the late 19th century right?
The only people who would want Luzon are the British, not the Germans since it is the land that they were supposed to get in the 7 years war and they have businesses connected to Britain there as well wherein they can start to consolidate their rule(which is basically also connected to Americans as well) which would smoothen the process, the Americans and Germans have similar interests and would want to control the south of the archipelago.

We can give Mindanao to the Germans to screw the American ambitions there.
 
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It is in Spanish but...
https://www.militar.org.ua/foro/ucronia-espana-vs-ee-uu-duelo-de-aguilas-t36355.html

However, I think that even with minor changes:

1. Change the will of the Spanish Government to fight. In fact they sent the fleet to be sunk,
2. Increase just a bit the defense budget so to have all the units ready to fight,
3. Change the overal strategy.
a. Send the fleet to Havana instead to Santiago, in order to threat US communications from a port harder to block,
b. In the battle of Cavite, deploy the fleet under coverture of the coastal guns. Admiral Montojo thought he had lost the battle (even though the damages were not crippling) and ordered to sink the ships... when the US fleet has run out of ammo and was almost defenceless!!
c. Perform the raid on the west coast: no modern defences.

I do not say the US Navy would have been defeated, but the war would have been made longer and costier. And the US public would have lost interest, the intervention would have lost support and Spain would have achieved a draw and preserved her colonies for a bit longer.
 
Or rather have Aguinaldo die en route, causing a united Magdiwang to continue to rule Katipunan to consolidate rule over Luzon but not completely in alliance with the Americans, this would mean that Luzon and Cuba would be independent under American protection but the Visayas, Spanish held Mindanao and Puerto Rico remain under Spanish rule.
 
Mayhaps USN forces are hit by taiphoon while operateing in the Pacific that dramatically reduces its forces, resulting in a negotiated settlement. Cuba is liberated by the remaining territories are not impacted.
 
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