AHC: Spain wins Spanish-American War

... The US is thrown aside as a possible new world power with defeat at the hands at such a weary nation as Spain as of this time. ...

The US did not halt its conquest of north America because it lost a very early campaign. The common reaction of the US to a defeat has been to replace the leaders and work at it from another direction. there are exception, but that is the most common. The Spanish American War war part of a larger US expansion of influence to the south that had been going on for decades.

The probable result would be other European nations attempting to shut out US trade interests, with the US learning from its failure against Spain and crafting more effective counters. A better Navy, better Army, better political preparation, better industrial mobilization for wars would have emerged from the defeat. Much of that emerged from the victory vs Spain, and improvements have emerged from about every other US defeat. We have had our share and there is no reason to think this one would be different.
 
Mind you, I don't know much about Spanish history in the late 19th century. But is there any chance of a Spanish-German alliance after 1871 (leading to investment money poured into Spain)? From a German point of view, the apparent advantages could have been
a) favoured access for German traders to the Spanish West and East Indies, with the possibility of some purchase later
b) possibly access to naval bases and coaling stations far away
c) giving France something to worry about in the case of a French-German war (even if they just worry whether there are secret, military clauses to the alliance treaty)
d) privileged access to deckchairs on the Balearic Islands :D

Would Spain gain anything out of it?

Now, there are two options: One, there is a S-A War like OTL, with Germany neutral according to the terms of their treaty, but still having propped up the Spanish navy financially. Two, Germany fighting alongside Spain, over issues like the Samoan islands.
 
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Razgriz 2K9

Banned
Mind you, I don't know much about Spanish history in the late 19th century. But is there any chance of a Spanish-German alliance after 1871 (leading to investment money poured into Spain)? From a German point of view, the apparent advantages could have been
a) favoured access for German traders to the Spanish West and East Indies, with the possibility of some purchase later
b) possibly access to naval bases and coaling stations far away
c) giving France something to worry about in the case of a French-German war (even if they just worry whether there are secret, military clauses to the alliance treaty)
d) privileged access to deckchairs on the Balearic Islands :D

Would Spain gain anything out of it?

Now, there are two options: One, there is a S-A War like OTL, with Germany neutral according to the terms of their treaty, but still having propped up the Spanish navy financially. Two, Germany fighting alongside Spain, over issues like the Samoan islands.

Well, it's possible. Given Nappy being over eager on foreign affairs and Bismarck playing everyone... Plus if he could successfully back Leopoldo Von Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen for The Spanish throne, maybe we will see more Hispano-Germanic cooperation.
 
Given spanish apathy, they more than certainly did. Especially since all it takes is someone in government saying "Fuck it, it's not worth the expense." And considering how badly funded the navy was, that's not too far off.

Not really, Spain considered Cuba a province of Spain. Before the assassination of Antonio Cánovas del Castillo, Spain was more than likely to fight to the death for Cuba. Apathy in the local populace is only a minority. Cuba would have never won without the USA.

It is a common misconception that Cuban population is Anti Spanish because that is how USA media played it during that time. Now, even if we considered your opinion that all or majority of the Cubans were anti Spanish, the Cubans should have tapped around 100-200k of their people to fight. But majority of the population never bore arms vs Spain in OTL. It was even quite the opposite in OTL, most Cubans volunteered for the Spanish Army.

a) favoured access for German traders to the Spanish West and East Indies, with the possibility of some purchase later

Spanish East Indies is quite possible for a German control. If everything in ttl happens the same way as OTL in Spanish East Indies, the local populace will embrace German control over Spanish control.
 
Not really, Spain considered Cuba a province of Spain. Before the assassination of Antonio Cánovas del Castillo, Spain was more than likely to fight to the death for Cuba. Apathy in the local populace is only a minority. Cuba would have never won without the USA.

The Spanish leaders were, in fact, quite aware that the war against the US was unwinnable (given the state of the army and the navy). They still chose to fight it. When Sagasta (the current president of the govt.) spoke to the parliament regarding the declaration of war against the US (an epic speech XD), he said "the Spanish nation can be defeated, but not affronted without punishment." When you declare a war already mentioning the word "defeat"...
 
Had Spain won the Spanish-American War it would change a lot of the early 20th Century. Although we have to wonder what kind of victory should we consider for Spain?

Personally I think just throwing back the US would have been a victory for Spain. As for it's consequences on both sides:

Spain would remain mostly the same except the Defeatist feeling wouldn't be there, Cuba would be Spanish until a Great War happens or the eventual decolonization of the Caribbean. Same with Puerto Rico.

The Philippines would probably be sold later either way probably to Germany?

As for the USA a defeat in the Spanish-American war while damaging in the short run doesn't hurt the USA in the long run. The USA's rise to Great Power was inevitable.
 
The Spanish leaders were, in fact, quite aware that the war against the US was unwinnable (given the state of the army and the navy). They still chose to fight it. When Sagasta (the current president of the govt.) spoke to the parliament regarding the declaration of war against the US (an epic speech XD), he said "the Spanish nation can be defeated, but not affronted without punishment." When you declare a war already mentioning the word "defeat"...

Well if you maintain OTL Spain situation in ttl, war with the USA in 2 fronts was definitely unwinnable.

However, what ever happened in OTL, a POD earlier will have feasible winnability of Spain vs the USA.

That was the whole purpose of ttl/OP to make Spain winning feasible not to apply OTL occurrences in ttl.
 

NothingNow

Banned
It is a common misconception that Cuban population is Anti Spanish because that is how USA media played it during that time.
Of course not, they're just a bunch of nationalists. You don't have a series of wars running on and off for thirty years unless you've got some serious popular support, which the Mambises certainly had.

But it's also worth remembering that the Mambises, and pretty much everyone else who was heavily influenced by Marti were anti-american as well.

Now, even if we considered your opinion that all or majority of the Cubans were anti Spanish, the Cubans should have tapped around 100-200k of their people to fight.
Please don't pull numbers out of your ass like that. Out of a population of 1.5 million, 100-200k people fighting is a lot for a non-industrialized population. 50k OTOH is very sustainable, and more effective against the 250k man Spanish Army garrison.

But majority of the population never bore arms vs Spain in OTL. It was even quite the opposite in OTL, most Cubans volunteered for the Spanish Army.
Of course not. The Mambises only had maybe 40k guns at any given time, and tended to be poorer than the peninsulares and creoles who would volunteer for the spanish army. About 95% of the freedmen in Cuba had carried arms against the spanish administration at any given time over that 30 year stretch, and that's probably a more valuable figure to look at.
 
Well if you maintain OTL Spain situation in ttl, war with the USA in 2 fronts was definitely unwinnable.

However, what ever happened in OTL, a POD earlier will have feasible winnability of Spain vs the USA.

That was the whole purpose of ttl/OP to make Spain winning feasible not to apply OTL occurrences in ttl.

Oh yes, sorry, i was merely reinforcing your point about being unlikely that Spain would just give up on Cuba without a fight. Even with the liberals in the government, and with no chance to win, Spain still decided to fight.

I think the latest PoD that would give Spain chances to "win" would be an alliance (probably with Britain, as there were many anglophiles in the ruling parties, but Germany would do it too, if Hohenzollern had got the throne during the revolutionary decade) that would provide Spain with the help of a well-mantained fleet. For Spain to be able to maintain properly the fleet and the army, an earlier PoD would be needed... which probably would butterfly the war anyway.
 
Please don't pull numbers out of your ass like that. Out of a population of 1.5 million, 100-200k people fighting is a lot for a non-industrialized population. 50k OTOH is very sustainable, and more effective against the 250k man Spanish Army garrison.

I based the numbers on the highest estimate of rebels in the Philippine war. In The Philippine side, highest estimates were 1M of the 7.8M population of the rebels. So, 1/7 of 1.6M is around 220k.

There is no way Cuba would win the war without the USA with just 50k troops and inferior Navy vs Spain.
 
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