AHC: Spain in the Axis

With any POD after the end of the Spanish Civil War (roughly April 1939) make Franco's Spain enter WW2 on the Axis side. How will this affect the balance of power? And what would Spain's fate be in the event of an Allied Victory?
 

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Argh, I seriously doubt Franco would've taken his blemished country into war, the only realistic alternative is a deal after the fall of France. The idea was conceived by Franco and Hitler, but was never implemented. Mostly due to material constraints.

This is sort of ASB, provided the United Kingdom is still in the war.
If the UK is crumbling or is under some sort of sustained aerial attack, i.e. the destruction of the RAF, then I think he would've capitalized and seized Gibraltar. Spain, like that of many other Axis-aligned powers will probably face no major territorial loses that will be a slap in the face. Sure, they would lose Gibraltar, but what else is there to take?. Spanish Morocco will likely be shifted to the administration of French North Africa and its rump colony in Africa.
 
... And what would Spain's fate be in the event of an Allied Victory?

Rough. The blockade will cut off grain imports from north and south America, so severe food rationing. Oil imports would cease, Accounts in US and London banks would be frozen & credit cease. Other miscl but critical industrial items like chemicals will cease import. Germany can replace none of that. Tho some coal can be spared, and lots of left over rifles from Europes looted arsenals.

The SOE & OSS will be busy aiding the revolt by the supporters of the defeated Republic and assorted Communist groups. By the liberaton of France a full blown civil war will be underway. Post war the former Republicans will be taking some nasty vengance on the assorted Facist and conservative supporters of Franco.
 
The only way I can see Franco joining the Axis is if the war is already basically over and the axis has already won, to get a seat at the negotiating table and to hopefully get Gibraltar.
 
If Italy has beaten the Royal Navy's Mediterranean fleet and seized Malta and Vichy France is a semi cobeligerant of the axis Spain after Mers El Kibier then Spain may well jump on Gibralter.
 
Honestly, the best bet might just be to get someone else then Franco at the end of the civil war, perhaps Sanjurjo or Molé could do.
 
The only way I can see Franco joining the Axis is if the war is already basically over and the axis has already won, to get a seat at the negotiating table and to hopefully get Gibraltar.
That's my thinking. IMHO the window of opportunity for a POD opens on 10th June 1940 and then gradually closes between then and the middle of September 1940.

I chose 10th June because that is the date Italy declared war. Mussolini thought it was all over bar negotiating the peace treaty. By the middle of September it was clear that that it was going to be a long war. As has been outlined numerous times on other threads that Spain was in no condition to fight a war that lasted more than a few months (if that) and Franco knew it. The only realistic way of getting around that is a shorter and less destructive Spanish Civil War, which is out of the scope of the OP.
 
How will this affect the balance of power?
Not enough to change the result of the war IMHO.

That is unless Gibraltar can be quickly taken, allowing the Regia Marina to move to Brest and support Operation Sealion. However, that's not a realistic idea.

All it really does, is make the western Mediterranean an Axis lake from whenever Spain declares war until Operation Torch, which I think will still happen. In the meantime there is more chance that Malta will fall. However, I doubt that the Axis forces in Libya will be able to break through to the Suez Canal as a consequence. The best that can happen IMHO (unless there are other changes) is that the Axis can hold Tunisia for longer, delaying the invasions of Sicily and mainland Italy.

German surface warships would be able to operate from the Spanish bases of Ferrol and Cadiz, which would be harder for the British to blockade than the ports in western France. After the coast artillery at Gibraltar is made ineffective they could even go to Cartagena or Italian naval bases to refit. In this case we might see Hipper and Scheer being refitted at an Italian or Spanish naval base rather than risk returning to Germany via the Denmark Strait. They might be ready to support Bismarck and Prinz Eugen when they made their sortie. I doubt that The Twins would be ready in time.
 
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