AHC: Soviets invade Romania in Mid-1938..

Suppose Stalin invades Romania in 1938 as some kind of paranoia induced gamble to create a more effective buffer/leverage against Hitler's Germany.
What would the consequences of this be?
It would cut Germany off from its main oil source ( other than international imports and synthetic oil). The Germans are also probably too weak to intervene overtly in the defense of Romania prior to absorbing Czechoslovakia and its armaments industry. However, it seems likely that German arms and 'volunteers' would find their way to the Romanian army in some form. Would that be enough to hold off the Soviets if they are truly bent on conquest at any price? How would Poland and the Czech's react? Would they remain aloof from the situation or would they reconcile with Hitler's Germany to stand against Soviet aggression? Would Britain and France do anything more than formally protest against Soviet actions or would they try and intervene militarily?
 
It all depends on what the POD is. If you somehow butterfly the Purges, the Red Army isn't going to have a hard time. There's even a *chance* that they can pull it off with Allied support if they somehow persuade France that they're doing it to enable them to support the Czechs against the Germans...otherwise, though, I don't think the Allies will intervene.

On the flip side, if you're having the Red Army invade during the height of the Purges for whatever reason, well, the hilariously incompetent stereotype of the Red Army might have more basis in reality ITTL...
 
interesting scenario but out of character for the cautious Stalin. the figures show Germany receiving approx. 3m barrels of oil from Romania in 1938 out of their total 44m for the year, so not initially a critical shortfall for them, assuming the Soviets end sales?

it eliminates the Romanian Bridgehead to supply Poland in event of war, also they are in defensive alliance, not certain Poland would act? but they would be more welcomed to send volunteers and weapons than Germany?

might be possible for Germany and Hungary to seize up to Carpathians (Transylvania) for defensive line with some actual justification?
 

Deleted member 1487

In 1938 Germany was buying oil internationally, not primarily from Romania. Also the USSR has made itself public enemy #1 and likely gets war declared on it by everyone in Europe for it's aggression against a pretty major nation; even if the Allies don't react, they are going to let Germany and Italy get away with stuff to deal with Stalin.
 
Carol i is seen as a bulwark against both fascism and communism.
Some have been heard to speculate that might even lead to a butterfly of Munich and support for the ostler conspiracy. The holocaust itself might be averted.
 
interesting scenario but out of character for the cautious Stalin. the figures show Germany receiving approx. 3m barrels of oil from Romania in 1938 out of their total 44m for the year, so not initially a critical shortfall for them, assuming the Soviets end sales?

might be possible for Germany and Hungary to seize up to Carpathians (Transylvania) for defensive line with some actual justification?

In 1938 Germany was buying oil internationally, not primarily from Romania. Also the USSR has made itself public enemy #1 and likely gets war declared on it by everyone in Europe for it's aggression against a pretty major nation; even if the Allies don't react, they are going to let Germany and Italy get away with stuff to deal with Stalin.

"get away with stuff" includes all the territorial moves made historically (plus)? my assumption this is after Munich where Stalin might perceive the Allies as weak?

only mentioned additional move of occupying Transylvania because that was the Hungarian obsession, all the Romanian troops moved east to counter the Soviets, and taking a riff from their late WWII move attempt to position themselves in the Carpathians?

an interesting question would be Poland, would the British guarantee them? Germany could make a valid argument (though self-serving) for annexing Polish Corridor?
 
It's feasible for Stalin to annex Bessarabia, a territory that belonged to Russia before 1914, but I don't know what he'd do with the rest of Romania. Bulgaria and Hungary would be circling Romania's carcass like vultures, mainly for portions of Dobruja and Northern Transylvania.

If Italy is still looking to grab bits of Yugoslavia along with Bulgaria and Hungary, and Stalin acquiesces to Bulgarian and Hungarian gains from Romania, then the Axis minors and the USSR would be de facto allies. Could Rome and Moscow end up negotiating an MR style division of the Balkans into respective spheres of influence?
 

nbcman

Donor
If the Soviets attempted it, there would be the potential for a wider war between themselves and the Little Entente countries (Romania, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia) with France passively or actively supporting the LE countries-not to mention other countries which may assist against the 'Bolshevik menace' such as the British Commonwealth, Hungary, Poland, Germany, and Italy. Other butterflies would be a quicker Nationalist victory in the Spanish Civil War as there is little chance for Soviet ships to be allowed past the blockade to assist the Republicans plus the possibility the Lake Khasan incident would lead to a greater conflict in the Far East between Japan and the Soviets. Overall, it is not a good plan for Stalin and it is out of character for him.
 

Deleted member 1487

"get away with stuff" includes all the territorial moves made historically (plus)? my assumption this is after Munich where Stalin might perceive the Allies as weak?

only mentioned additional move of occupying Transylvania because that was the Hungarian obsession, all the Romanian troops moved east to counter the Soviets, and taking a riff from their late WWII move attempt to position themselves in the Carpathians?

an interesting question would be Poland, would the British guarantee them? Germany could make a valid argument (though self-serving) for annexing Polish Corridor?
Remember in 1938 the Soviets didn't take a thing and the Brits were still trying to appease Hitler to keep his as a counterbalance to Stalin; in fact the Allies were rebuffing Stalin's attempts to get them into an alliance against Hitler and Stalin was having to sit back until the Nazis approached him to divide up Eastern Europe. Had Stalin opted to unilaterally invade a major European nation, a major oil producer to boot, it justifies the Allies fears of Stalin and attempts to salvage their policy toward Hitler.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeasement#Government_views
Appeasement was accepted by most of those responsible for British foreign policy in the 1930s, by leading journalists and academics and by members of the royal family, such as Edward VIII and his successor, George VI.[30] Anti-communism was sometimes acknowledged as a deciding factor, as mass labor unrest resurfaced in Britain, and news of Stalin's bloody purges disturbed the West. A common upper-class slogan was "better Hitlerism than Communism."[32] (In France, rightists were sometimes heard to chant "Better Hitler than Blum," referring to their Socialist Prime Minister at the time.)[33]

If Romania were going to fall I think everyone would let the Hungarians move into Transsylvania and Romania would be too desperate to do anything about it. The question is how quickly support for the Romanians could be mobilized and sent and how quickly the Romanians would fall given the state of their military...and that of the Soviets in 1938. I do wonder if the Poles might be more open to Hitler's offer of alliance against the Soviets ITTL as they were still relatively friendly after Munich given that they got a cut of Czechoslovakia out of the deal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Teschen#After_World_War_I
Poland rejected the Czechoslovak request and Czechoslovakia attacked the Polish part of the region on 23 January 1919[16][17] and forced Poland, which was at that time in war also with the West Ukrainian National Republic over eastern Galicia, to withdraw from the western part of Cieszyn Silesia. After the fight near Skoczów a cease-fire was reached, signed in Paris on 3 February 1919. Poland had to recognize new borders running along the Olza River in 1920. Czechoslovakia received the western section (including the Karviná coal basin and the railway line) and smaller western part of the town, known later as Český Těšín, while Poland received the eastern section with Cieszyn and its historical centre.

Since then, Poland occasionally claimed the Czech section, eventually annexing it in October 1938 after the Munich Agreement.[18]
 
If Romania were going to fall I think everyone would let the Hungarians move into Transsylvania and Romania would be too desperate to do anything about it. The question is how quickly support for the Romanians could be mobilized and sent and how quickly the Romanians would fall given the state of their military...and that of the Soviets in 1938. I do wonder if the Poles might be more open to Hitler's offer of alliance against the Soviets ITTL as they were still relatively friendly after Munich given that they got a cut of Czechoslovakia out of the deal.

always have the impression that Poland could never decide, trapped as they were between Germany and USSR, Gen. Pilsudski described as one foot on each of two stools, that they would finally have to jump ... but they never did.

you may be correct under this scenario as Poland faces German carrot and Soviet stick?
 

Deleted member 1487

always have the impression that Poland could never decide, trapped as they were between Germany and USSR, Gen. Pilsudski described as one foot on each of two stools, that they would finally have to jump ... but they never did.

you may be correct under this scenario as Poland faces German carrot and Soviet stick?
Other than Pilsudski the Polish leadership was not interested in allying with either, they wanted to go their own way rather than be a pawn in the conflict between two former occupiers.
 
always have the impression that Poland could never decide, trapped as they were between Germany and USSR, Gen. Pilsudski described as one foot on each of two stools, that they would finally have to jump ... but they never did.

you may be correct under this scenario as Poland faces German carrot and Soviet stick?

Other than Pilsudski the Polish leadership was not interested in allying with either, they wanted to go their own way rather than be a pawn in the conflict between two former occupiers.

in my reading Pilsudski never offered guidance on a choice between the two? just comment that they were in untenable position.

for argument's sake, Germany has occupied all the territory they did historically and Italy has occupied Albania. the major change is that Hungary (with German support) has occupied Transylvania.

if Poland will not agree to a deal here? would you discount any German-Soviet deal?
 
What would happen if the USSR does this in 1939 after the invasion of Poland, Britain, France and Germany are all busy then.
 
What would happen if the USSR does this in 1939 after the invasion of Poland, Britain, France and Germany are all busy then.

in essence they did this on smaller scale, taking Northern Bukovina when it was not agreed upon with Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_occupation_of_Bessarabia_and_Northern_Bukovina

if they pushed on to the oilfields it would seriously threaten Germany but by then Romania had mobilized their forces, so maybe not quite as easy as first glance.
 

Deleted member 1487

in essence they did this on smaller scale, taking Northern Bukovina when it was not agreed upon with Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_occupation_of_Bessarabia_and_Northern_Bukovina

if they pushed on to the oilfields it would seriously threaten Germany but by then Romania had mobilized their forces, so maybe not quite as easy as first glance.
That was in 1940 after the Battle of France was won. If the Soviets tried to move on, not only would they face the mobilized Romanian army, but also Romania's interested trade partners, namely Italy and Germany; in the case of Italy that would probably preclude their advance into Egypt and Greece later in the year. Germany would also probably have to forego the Battle of Britain to deal with Stalin's advance into Romania and threat to Poland.

What would happen if the USSR does this in 1939 after the invasion of Poland, Britain, France and Germany are all busy then.
Germany probably has to turn on the USSR instead of invading France, while the Allies probably also have to declare war on the Soviets as well as launch Operation Pike, as the threat from Germany is effectively neutralized in the west for quite a while due to the Nazi-Soviet conflict over Romania.
 
That was in 1940 after the Battle of France was won. If the Soviets tried to move on, not only would they face the mobilized Romanian army, but also Romania's interested trade partners, namely Italy and Germany; in the case of Italy that would probably preclude their advance into Egypt and Greece later in the year. Germany would also probably have to forego the Battle of Britain to deal with Stalin's advance into Romania and threat to Poland.

Germany probably has to turn on the USSR instead of invading France, while the Allies probably also have to declare war on the Soviets as well as launch Operation Pike, as the threat from Germany is effectively neutralized in the west for quite a while due to the Nazi-Soviet conflict over Romania.

am confused, read the post of speculative 1939 Soviet move on Romania as implying the historical joint invasion of Poland had occurred?

hence my point that the optimal time for Soviets to move on Romania was when they did (1940), just on a larger scale.
 

Deleted member 1487

am confused, read the post of speculative 1939 Soviet move on Romania as implying the historical joint invasion of Poland had occurred?

hence my point that the optimal time for Soviets to move on Romania was when they did (1940), just on a larger scale.
The post you responded to said the invasion of Romania happens in 1939 after the invasion of Poland. I don't know if there is an optimal time for the Soviets from 1939-40, but after the Fall of France things are going to be pretty tough for them.
 
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