AHC: Soviets allow Jewish emigration to Israel

I think most of the "Russians" are quite secular, that's why they are more attracted to Yisrael Beitenu - which is a very nationalist party, but also not too keen on religious issues.

In the 2013 election, there were significant defections to Jewish Home, which positioned itself as the latest right-of-Likud party and made hip noises under Bennett. (They came back to Likud or Israel Beitenu in 2015.)
 

TinyTartar

Banned
American pressure? I mean, it might not mean much, but we were giving them grain for a good period of time.

We could leverage how much grain they were given with how many Jews were allowed to leave Russia.

Perhaps massive crop failures hit the Soviet Union (and no, I am not going down the Red Dawn route) and they NEED emergency food shipments, and we leverage that into allowing Jews to emigrate.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
I think most of the "Russians" are quite secular, that's why they are more attracted to Yisrael Beitenu - which is a very nationalist party, but also not too keen on religious issues.

I actually question the designation of Yisrael Beitenu, as while it is nationalist in terms of its belief in Revisionist Zionism and ardently follows Jabotinsky, it actually favors the two state solution and is in favor of giving up land from pre 1967 borders Israel, with the Arab Triangle in mind, in exchange for taking most of the Jordan Valley where settlers seem to be a majority, or at least the Gush Etzion block.

On religious issues, they seem fairly indifferent, but they really seem hawkish on the loyalty of Israeli Arabs. Basically, they in my opinion value the Jewish character of Israel above all else and seem determined to make Israel as Jewish as possible, with attention being given to attracting more Jews to make aliyah.

The thing about Israeli politics is that it has multiple axes that aren't just left and right, as there is also secular vs religious. The religious parties in Israel seem centrist in leanings in terms of economics, and on security, they seem to be fine with coexistence with Arabs, unless there is a settler component. They really just seem to be there to represent the interests of their constituencies and little else, being basically few issue voters.
 
I think everyone has missed the elephant in the room.

The Soviet Union didn't allow ANYONE to emigrate in numbers. Why would it make a special exception for the Jews?


Agreed.

The problem is that any large scale emigration would

a. indicate failure of Communism as why would anyone want to leave The Worker's Paradise?

and

b. such emigrants would carry tales of what an oppressive tyranny the SU was, and especially in the beginning how poor it was.


Now, IF the emigration was "Special" as in "Jews returning to their Homeland" this could give a reason for the Soviets to NOT feel that A. was an issue.


B? Mmm, harder.


Maybe a secret agreement with the Israeli government that the flow of Jews is based on them preventing any such negative information being widely publicized.


This implies some fairly strong controls over movement and speech in this ALT Israel of course.
 
Agreed.

The problem is that any large scale emigration would

a. indicate failure of Communism as why would anyone want to leave The Worker's Paradise?

and

b. such emigrants would carry tales of what an oppressive tyranny the SU was, and especially in the beginning how poor it was.


Now, IF the emigration was "Special" as in "Jews returning to their Homeland" this could give a reason for the Soviets to NOT feel that A. was an issue.


B? Mmm, harder.


Maybe a secret agreement with the Israeli government that the flow of Jews is based on them preventing any such negative information being widely publicized.


This implies some fairly strong controls over movement and speech in this ALT Israel of course.

these points are negated if Isreal goes commie though, or even just radical socialist.
 
Nyet Nyet soviet

The Soviets were more interested in eliminating French and British influence in the Region. Thus it would make little sense for the Soviets to openly support Israel over the Arabs. They might open the gates to emigration if they were trying to purge Soviet society of reactionary/kulak /religious influences. Expelling the Jews and stealing their property is a tried and true method of diverting the masses. An alternative reason would be to slip a number of sleeper agents in the Jewish exodus much like Isis with the Syrians.
 
Obviously, this would require some sort of alliance between Israel and the Soviet Union. The dangers of allowing tales of the oppressive Soviet Union to be spread in a democracy would be difficult, but not insurmountable.

I don't think Israel would go full communist. Ben-Gurion was still too personally popular. More likely, he would have shifted his politics further to the left. Israel's economy might be dominated by the government, but that government would remain democratic. We'd likely see a greater diversity of socialist thought in Israel.

The wider implications would be... interesting.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
Obviously, this would require some sort of alliance between Israel and the Soviet Union. The dangers of allowing tales of the oppressive Soviet Union to be spread in a democracy would be difficult, but not insurmountable.

I don't think Israel would go full communist. Ben-Gurion was still too personally popular. More likely, he would have shifted his politics further to the left. Israel's economy might be dominated by the government, but that government would remain democratic. We'd likely see a greater diversity of socialist thought in Israel.

The wider implications would be... interesting.

I mean, the Socialists basically had the run of things for the first 30 years of that state, and for some time before. They never went full Communist, sure, but I don't think they would have even with an alliance with the Soviets, at least if they wanted to maintain democracy. Communism and democracy don't usually make for good combinations.

The economy was pretty intertwined with the state already. In fact, I don't have solid figures for this, but I think it was Bibi's somewhat successful tenure as finance minister in 2003-05 that really turned this pattern around (an unusual thing about him politically is that he seems like a true believer in the free market, something most Israeli politicians are not), even though Likud had been in power many times before.

I think maybe the Soviets might not be willing to let emigration happen, but I DO think that exile could happen. Stalin notably hated the Jews, and was considering some action against them before his death. Exile to Israel might have been an option. Of course, Israel taking in millions of Russian Jews IN ADDITION to all of the Mizrahi Jews they were getting at the same exact time might be something that cripples the state and its institutions.
 
I mean, the Socialists basically had the run of things for the first 30 years of that state, and for some time before. They never went full Communist, sure, but I don't think they would have even with an alliance with the Soviets, at least if they wanted to maintain democracy. Communism and democracy don't usually make for good combinations.

Just to put something in perspective: when Ben Gurion needed to form his first governing coalition, and considered his options, he said "no Herut, and no Maki." Herut was Begin's right-wing party, one of two that would merge to form Likud (the other, the Liberals/General Zionists, was not beyond Ben Gurion's pale); Maki was the communist party. That's how much he hated the communists.

To put things even more in perspective, Ben Gurion had a choice of three partners for his first coalition: to his economic right, the Progressives and the General Zionists; to his left, Mapam (later one component of Meretz); and to the religious direction, Mizrahi (later Mafdal, now Jewish Home). He chose to go into coalition with the religious folks, because ew capitalism and ew Mapam. Kibbutzes split over the Mapai vs. Mapam question; members of the same family would not speak to each other if they were on different sides of the split. We're talking Judean People's Front vs. People's Front of Judea levels of schism here, except one of them actually ran the country for a couple decades.

The economy was pretty intertwined with the state already. In fact, I don't have solid figures for this, but I think it was Bibi's somewhat successful tenure as finance minister in 2003-05 that really turned this pattern around (an unusual thing about him politically is that he seems like a true believer in the free market, something most Israeli politicians are not), even though Likud had been in power many times before.

No, not really. The bulk of the restructuring was done in the 1980s, under national unity governments, as the state came out of hyperinflation. The biggest change, the Arrangements Law, which lets the finance ministry veto any government spending it thinks will raise the deficit too much, was enacted when Peres was prime minister in the 80s.

Government spending as a proportion of GDP has indeed gone down since 2003, but around half of the decline was related to the business cycle - in 2003 Israel was in a recession, and as it came out, welfare spending and such went down. Using 2000 as a baseline, government spending has gone down from around 48% of GDP to 41-42%. This contrasts with 70% in the 1980s.

See some information here, and recent (since 2008) GDP and government spending data if you play with the table here.

I think maybe the Soviets might not be willing to let emigration happen, but I DO think that exile could happen. Stalin notably hated the Jews, and was considering some action against them before his death. Exile to Israel might have been an option. Of course, Israel taking in millions of Russian Jews IN ADDITION to all of the Mizrahi Jews they were getting at the same exact time might be something that cripples the state and its institutions.

In the 1980s, Ashkenazi pundits were salivating over the upcoming Soviet migration wave, since they expected it would bolster their numbers over the Mizrahis. From the early 1950s to the early 1990s, Israel's Jewish population had a clear Mizrahi majority. It was also Israeli policy to encourage Jewish immigration whenever possible, to bolster national demographics. The IDF needed warm bodies; it wasn't until after it won the Six-Day War that Israel was convinced of its invulnerability.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
In the 1980s, Ashkenazi pundits were salivating over the upcoming Soviet migration wave, since they expected it would bolster their numbers over the Mizrahis. From the early 1950s to the early 1990s, Israel's Jewish population had a clear Mizrahi majority. It was also Israeli policy to encourage Jewish immigration whenever possible, to bolster national demographics. The IDF needed warm bodies; it wasn't until after it won the Six-Day War that Israel was convinced of its invulnerability.

I have to wonder whether they thought it would lead to political victories for the secular left, as that always seems to be at the heart of Israeli racial politics. A coworker of mine from North Tel Aviv was talking to me about this year's election in Israel (he is a Meretz supporter, by the way), and basically said that the "Moroccans should have stayed in Morocco" and that they were to blame for the result. Menachem Begin's good standing in the Mizrahi majority is not something that many of the Ashkenazi elite took well to from what I gather.

The fact that the Russian immigrant population hasn't led to a realignment to the left, with nothing to say about the following that Avigdor Lieberman has gained, must have been a shock to some of those pundits.

The point I was making about the strain that a Soviet exile would have caused is that considering the treatment of the Mizrahi for the first decade or so from their arrival was in many ways shamefully negligent, and if you add a few million Russian Jews to that equation, I question how well the state would have done in integrating them. Sure, they'd love the warm bodies for the IDF, but housing and employment are going to be issues, and considering how idealized the Kibbutz was at this point (I have always thought that the Kibbutz to 50s-70s Israelis was like the suburban white picket fence for Americans), there is going to be massive social tension.
 
The fact that the Russian immigrant population hasn't led to a realignment to the left, with nothing to say about the following that Avigdor Lieberman has gained, must have been a shock to some of those pundits.

It's not just the political bit. It's the cultural bit. Elite Ashkenazis don't just view Mizrahis as right-wing; they view them as uncultured baboons, in ways they wouldn't view old-school Revisionists, like the Netanyahus. They viewed the Russians not so much as a way to bolster the left against the right as a way to insert capital-c Culture into Israel.

Except, well, this new culture wasn't what they expected.

The point I was making about the strain that a Soviet exile would have caused is that considering the treatment of the Mizrahi for the first decade or so from their arrival was in many ways shamefully negligent, and if you add a few million Russian Jews to that equation, I question how well the state would have done in integrating them. Sure, they'd love the warm bodies for the IDF, but housing and employment are going to be issues, and considering how idealized the Kibbutz was at this point (I have always thought that the Kibbutz to 50s-70s Israelis was like the suburban white picket fence for Americans), there is going to be massive social tension.

Not necessarily worse than in OTL. There was a welfare state then, which would have helped massively. The Mizrahis faced things like the uniform education system, the cutting of the payot, and the DDT spraying, that the Russians would not have had to deal with. (Well, the Russians would've been part of that education system, but secular co-education wouldn't come as a shock to them.) The Russians who came in in the 1970s ended up better-integrated than the ones who came in the 1990s, because they got more state aid at the beginning.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
It's not just the political bit. It's the cultural bit. Elite Ashkenazis don't just view Mizrahis as right-wing; they view them as uncultured baboons, in ways they wouldn't view old-school Revisionists, like the Netanyahus. They viewed the Russians not so much as a way to bolster the left against the right as a way to insert capital-c Culture into Israel.

Except, well, this new culture wasn't what they expected.



Not necessarily worse than in OTL. There was a welfare state then, which would have helped massively. The Mizrahis faced things like the uniform education system, the cutting of the payot, and the DDT spraying, that the Russians would not have had to deal with. (Well, the Russians would've been part of that education system, but secular co-education wouldn't come as a shock to them.) The Russians who came in in the 1970s ended up better-integrated than the ones who came in the 1990s, because they got more state aid at the beginning.

Yeah, I kind of got that perception as well that the culture issue is still resonant. The notion of the Tel Aviv bubble is real, and you can hear things like "we're the only Israelis living in the civilized world unlike those people".

The point about Ashkenazi revisionists like Bibi is an interesting one, but I've always got the impression that a lot of the dislike of Bibi from the Ashkenazi Left comes from the perception of him as someone who is a rabble rouser, an Ashkenazi who whips up a rabid mob of the uncivilized to further his own ambition. The film Gatekeepers indicates this pretty well, as the only clip of him in the entire film was when he was on the balcony leading the Oslo II protests, talking to a crowd who are yelling "Rabin's a traitor!". The rhetoric is very similar to some of the stuff said in Britain about Labour relying on the Muslim vote.

As for Russian integration, I think it would be easier earlier on as well, but not just because of state programs, but also because there hadn't been as much development and entrenchment of social identity by that point. Remember, many Russian Jews spoke Yiddish right after WW2 (but not for long), and Yiddish in Israel has waned in popularity over time, being basically targeted by many state establishments for removal. Russian Jews in the 50s would be able to have Yiddish as a crutch for integration into the Ashkenazim in a way that they would not later on.
 
The point about Ashkenazi revisionists like Bibi is an interesting one, but I've always got the impression that a lot of the dislike of Bibi from the Ashkenazi Left comes from the perception of him as someone who is a rabble rouser, an Ashkenazi who whips up a rabid mob of the uncivilized to further his own ambition. The film Gatekeepers indicates this pretty well, as the only clip of him in the entire film was when he was on the balcony leading the Oslo II protests, talking to a crowd who are yelling "Rabin's a traitor!". The rhetoric is very similar to some of the stuff said in Britain about Labour relying on the Muslim vote.

It never extends to Bibi himself, of course. But it extends to people of that socio-political group who aren't politicians. (With politicians, the Likudniks who Haaretz columnists like tend to be the ones with strong liberal and anti-racist credentials, like Rivlin and Benny Begin.)

As for Russian integration, I think it would be easier earlier on as well, but not just because of state programs, but also because there hadn't been as much development and entrenchment of social identity by that point. Remember, many Russian Jews spoke Yiddish right after WW2 (but not for long), and Yiddish in Israel has waned in popularity over time, being basically targeted by many state establishments for removal. Russian Jews in the 50s would be able to have Yiddish as a crutch for integration into the Ashkenazim in a way that they would not later on.

Yeah, in the 1950s they would have almost certainly been assimilated into the Ashkenazi mainstream, with various degrees of success. I say "various degrees" because there do exist marginal groups within Ashkenazi Israeliness, namely the Romanians, and the more downscale Holocaust survivors. By the 1960s I doubt they'd have assimilated; in the 1970s, they evidently didn't.
 
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