AHC: Soviet Union Survives

Your challenge, if you choose to accept it, is to, with a PoD no earlier then January 1st, 1964, allow the Soviet Union to survive fully intactly into 2010. The puppet states don't count, but all of the land actually held by the USSR in 1964 need to stay that way. Bonus points if it is a long-term solution with an efficient beurocracy and minimal power b\vested in the army.
 
Stalin lives longer for one thing. When he ruled, people adored him (Or Pretended to as to not be shot). He died at the age of 74, so maybe if he had a healthier life style, which would be our POD, he could live up to the 1970's as the dictator of the Soviet Union.

Perhaps with more time of him in power, he could eliminate a lot of the trouble that happened in the 60's and 70's. Maybe he could have crushed a lot of separatist groups in their infancy, and perhaps crack down on the Baltic States and Ukraine, which IMO were the main states which caused the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The 80's would be much like the 50's in the Soviet Union, strong growth, etc. A leader like Stalin would be more likely take power if Stalin died in lets say 1975. Stalin could groom his successor, and would rule with an Iron Fist.

I could see the Eastern Bloc surviving the 90's, but by 2000-2010, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Albania, and Bulgaria would likely have fallen to Democracy, and by 2005-2006, maybe Poland.

I could see however, the Soviets in 2005 trying to hang on to Poland desperately, and occupy the country.


As for its reputation and Democracy, by 2000, I see some democratic and economic reforms taking place, and by 2010, the government would be somewhat more democratic and peaceful with the West. Perhaps this could keep Romania and Poland in the Eastern Bloc.
 
January 1969, Victor Ilyin goes to shoot Brezhnev... and he got pretty close. POD is that he succeeds. Mikhail Suslov is the only viable successor (Kirilenko was a joke with Brezhnev, nobody else had the credentials). Suslov, famous as an arch-conservative, probably won't avert a stagnation as such. What he might succeed in doing to shorten the stagnation.

- Suslov never wanted to be in charge, so it's possible he would retire with grace rather than hang around till he stunk up the place.
- Probably a more hands-off approach to decision making. Think Brezhnev but with less interest in protecting the ministries.
- Suslov is more likely to promote Soviet nationalism over the regionalism that Brezhnev favoured. Might remove some of the seperatist tensions that were threatening by the late 1980s.
- Having someone in charge who, even if you don't like his ideology (and people preferred to hear it from Suslov than Brezhnev), can be taken seriously will help maintain public confidence.
- Suslov promoted competant mangers and dedicated people. Yuri Andropov is a prime example. Putting Suslov in charge might give Andropov a go at the top job sooner.
- My impression is that the policy of 'stability of cadres' won't be maintained as tightly. Suslov is depicted in Red Eminence (biography) as being fairly keen on the concept of class war theory. He acted as a chairman of sorts for the Central Committee meeting that cast out the Anti-Party Group. He was pretty hardline with 'deviation' with foreign Communist parties, and might be expected to take a hardline internally if he had to. Finally, with the POD, there is a general sense of emergency and an ongoing sense of disquiet resulting from the Czech 'intervention' which make a perfect excuse for Suslov or his allies to clean house a bit.
- What that all means is that there will be less room for corruption, people won't be staying in jobs they can't do, there will be more opportunities for young apparatchiks etc. Ironically, stability of cadres probably did more to alienate middle and lower ranking party members than it did to make them feel secure.

The USSR cannot survive forever, but with a bit of a nudge it might go later, and with a bit more grace.

This was all going to be a piece I started writing for this forum... but then nobody bothered to read part one.:(
 

MacCaulay

Banned
This was all going to be a piece I started writing for this forum... but then nobody bothered to read part one.:(

You're saying that sometimes people don't pay attention to written pieces of work on the forum? I refuse to believe it. :eek::D
You should've made it about Israel and then posted it in the Chat section. Folks'd been all over it like flies on poop.





Myself, I've got to go with "Soviet Army goes Tienanen....Tienenan...Tianamnenmenen...Teenamenanenan Square on demonstrators in Red Square. Big crackdown and they go old school. Cold War goes back in the freezer for awhile."
 
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