AHC Soviet Union succesfully reforms during Gorbachev era


Detailed response, fun to read! You asked a question about why I said Germany would be in charge (well, what I actually said was more like "nobody would want Germany to be in charge," but your meaning is clear).

My assumptions with a POD around a successful Union Treaty are that it's too late to force the Baltics and possibly some of the Caucasus back into the Soviet bottle, just as it's probably too late to save communism in the Eastern Bloc beyond individual exceptions. The treaty wasn't even proposed until after the Baltics had declared their independence, and also after the democratic reformations of every Eastern Bloc nation.

My assumption is that it's too late for the USSR, reformed or not, to take a leading role in an East European alliance system. Germany was going to re-unify, and East Germany welcomed into the EU. I dwelled for a moment on the possibility that EU expansion might be too contentious with a surviving USSR, but I don't think in Germany's case it would be a problem. After all, if Germany's going to be one again, and it's either going to be in the EU or out of it, better for everyone if it's in. If it were out, it would very likely join any Eastern European alliance that formed, and as the most powerful state in such an alliance, it would dominate- nobody wants that. I hope that clears up why I mentioned Germany.

I guess it's possible a unified Germany might agree to leave ALL alliances and be a big giant neutral, but staying in the EU seems more likely.

But all that hinges upon a POD relating to the New Union Treaty. Were you considering an earlier POD? I still doubt you can keep Eastern Europe on-side without a much earlier kind of POD than one that results in a New Union Treaty. And possibly you can find one that allows for reform with the Baltics retaining communism and some level of peonage to the Soviet Union, but the only way they stay in a reformed USSR is through a lot of bloodshed and likely shipping them all off to Siberia again.
 
Detailed response, fun to read!

Thankyou. Some day, when I know this stuff well enough, I hope to write a TL about this. In the meantime, I write answers like those to share the fruits of trawling through all the archival papers...

My assumption is that it's too late for the USSR, reformed or not, to take a leading role in an East European alliance system.

I have read hints that even in 1991, Eastern Europe might have been surprisingly friendly to a reformed USS. Remember, the people in power there were generally former Communists who while embracing Gorbachev's ideas weren't necessarily of the opinion that the West was a better beacon of freedom than the reformed USSR under Gorbachev would be. Of course, in OTL, Gorbachev went from being the most powerful General Secretary since Stalin and a knight in shining armour showing what Communism could be if only men of good conscience ripped it away from the hands of the old corrupt men who had blighted Eastern Europe. He was the promise of the Prague Spring made good. Then, he was dirt. A failure. A bungler. A hero not of the Communists, but of the anti-Communists. The West rolled into the power vacuum.

In a TL where Gorbachev succeeds in his new Union Treaty, things will be hard for his USS, but they'll still get no-where near as bad as they did for our FSU since trade won't be as badly disrupted. And certainly, his USS won't be interested in intervening much in Eastern Europe (though Bush might successfully persuade him to intervene in Yugoslavia at least a little). Even so, the moral force of Gorbachev winning will change things. So some new alliance system may grow up in E. Europe.

I dwelled for a moment on the possibility that EU expansion might be too contentious with a surviving USSR, but I don't think in Germany's case it would be a problem. After all, if Germany's going to be one again, and it's either going to be in the EU or out of it, better for everyone if it's in. If it were out, it would very likely join any Eastern European alliance that formed, and as the most powerful state in such an alliance, it would dominate- nobody wants that. I hope that clears up why I mentioned Germany.

So West Germany and E. Germany unite, but East Germany isn't formally in the EU, but ends up leading the economic alliance that replaces COMECON? That sounds like a fascinating alternative to write about. (East Germany would be kinda like Hong Kong was for Britain before 1999 - outside the EU, but also a big part of the economy of the British Empire.)

I guess it's possible a unified Germany might agree to leave ALL alliances and be a big giant neutral, but staying in the EU seems more likely.

Yeah, I think either united Germany is a giant switzerland, or it stays in the EU. Interestingly, with a powerful USS, Germany may end up leaving NATO (though it's unlikely).

I think the most likely course that would lead to an EU-member non-NATO Germany is if that's the way for the EU to convince the USS to sanction their eastward expansion into neutrals like Sweden and semi-neutrals like Finland, not to mention further expansion into the former Warsaw pact.

fasquardon
 
So West Germany and E. Germany unite, but East Germany isn't formally in the EU, but ends up leading the economic alliance that replaces COMECON? That sounds like a fascinating alternative to write about. (East Germany would be kinda like Hong Kong was for Britain before 1999 - outside the EU, but also a big part of the economy of the British Empire.)

No, not what I meant, though that is fascinating! Here's sort of the order of instructions I was operating under:
1) German reuinification is inevitable.
2) EU expansion might be unpalatable or politically difficult in a world with a surviving Soviet Union.
3a) They'll probably still make an exception for a united Germany.
3b) If they DIDN'T make an exception, I thought of two possibilities:
4bi) All of Germany leaves and becomes a big neutral
4bii) All of Germany leaves and joins an East European alliance of fragile democracies and just totally ends up dominating them. Which, as I noted, doesn't seem like it would please ANYONE.

But then I guess I inadvertently inspired you to come up with another idea of a cool in-out West-East Germany thing that would force the EU to confront the idea of partial membership and weird border arrangements! (Which in itself might have interesting consequences for the UK. Not that the UK joining and leaving the EU framework is inevitable, but if they did there'd apparently be some sort of solution to the Northern Ireland border problem.)
 
But then I guess I inadvertently inspired you to come up with another idea of a cool in-out West-East Germany thing that would force the EU to confront the idea of partial membership and weird border arrangements! (Which in itself might have interesting consequences for the UK. Not that the UK joining and leaving the EU framework is inevitable, but if they did there'd apparently be some sort of solution to the Northern Ireland border problem.)

Heh. Well, the model already exists for overseas territories like the Falklands and St. Helena. And I don't think the UK would like to live like their overseas territories do. They'd need to follow the rules of the EU, but don't have the benefits of being a member. But that's pretty much inevitably what will happen anyway.

1) German reuinification is inevitable.
2) EU expansion might be unpalatable or politically difficult in a world with a surviving Soviet Union.
3a) They'll probably still make an exception for a united Germany.
3b) If they DIDN'T make an exception, I thought of two possibilities:
4bi) All of Germany leaves and becomes a big neutral
4bii) All of Germany leaves and joins an East European alliance of fragile democracies and just totally ends up dominating them. Which, as I noted, doesn't seem like it would please ANYONE.

Right, I get you.

Yeah, I don't think 4bii would be welcomed by anyone. Not in the 90s. Though maybe 4bi could develop into 4bii in the 2010s once there's been more time to forget WW2.

fasquardon
 
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