alternatehistory.com

"People often ask how the South could have won the Civil War. Answer: Secede one year sooner."--Sean Trende

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/941425241724682241

Challenge: Make it happen. Of course Trende admits later in the thread "Absolutely -- that [Lincoln's election] was the trigger. But they should have seen the writing on the wall given population/tech disparities and left while they still had a sympathetic ear in Washington. I'M EXTREMELY GLAD THEY DIDN'T IN ...CASE ANYONE IS MISUNDERSTANDING ME."

Is there anything that could make the South secede late in Buchanan's administration before Lincoln was elected? John Sherman being elected Speaker of the House? Doubtful that would be enough even for South Carolinians. John Brown escapes and a Radical Republican governor refuses to extradite him (and helps him slip over to Canada)? Anything?

(I think it's unfair to say that Buchanan was sympathetic to secessionists, btw--he was sympathetic to southern grievances, but did not consider secession a proper remedy for them. But it is true that he would not have dealt with secession effectively in early 1860 any more than he did in early 1861.)
Top