AHC: South African civil war

On the cities:


As for the voting, according to the 1996 Census, Whites only made up 6.6% of the population in KwaZulu-Natal while the National Party alone got 11.21% of the total vote. Given that fact and what NYT was reporting at the time, there is no other logical explanation to explain the discrepancy other than the Indians overwhelmingly voting against the ANC and IFP.

Here's an article about the 2011 elections. It looks at Indian voting patterns and finds the vote is fairly split. Indian majority areas voted for either the DA, ANC or the Minority Front (the only explicitly Indian party in SA).

http://thoughtleader.co.za/mandelar...d-the-indians-vote-for/?wpmp_switcher=desktop
 
According to the Study Commission on U.S. Policy toward Southern Africa, the White population in 1980 was 16.7% of the population; they were largely concentrated in the cities of the East (Largely Afrikaner/Boer there), and in the Cape Province (Largely the English speaking Whites). This means that in the opening phases of a conflict, the SADF will be able to quickly gain control over the vast majority the largest province in the Republic, as well as its economically vital cities. Long term I can definitely said cities being evacuated by SADF, with the Whites, Coloureds, and Asians fleeing to the Cape. Don't know how true it is, but I have been told second hand that the Black neighborhoods in cities by the 1980s were largely designed so that, in case of an uprising, their Air Force could easily bomb them.

Lastly, to speak of a unified Black identity/faction in a Civil War is a nonstarter. As others have alluded to, there was particularly savage direct fighting between the various nationalities, in particular between the Zulu-aligned Inkatha Party and the ANC. In fact, one of the things Mandela demanded in the lead-up to the end of Apartheid was the end of support the the Nationalist Party was still giving to the Zulus to undermine the ANC. I fully expect that, should a Civil War break out in South Africa, you're just as likely to see the Blacks fighting each other as they are the Whites. Indeed, such divides are ongoing to this day as the Marikana Killings show.



After the 1983 Reforms, Indians pretty firmly slid into the Nationalist Party/Pro-Apartheid camp. In the lead up to the 1994 elections, Black on Asian provocations in particular were worrying for them, as contemporary reporting by the New York Times shows:

Wait what.

The chinese yes because they wanted white status (and now want black status ironically enough). I find it really hard to believe that the indian's of all people, at least a majority of indian's would be pro-apartheid even then (i mean a sizeable minority, even women in that article who are saying, we are well off, why rock the boat sort). Think about it, how many of the ANC leaders were Indian and indian's as a rule were damn active politically.

I mean in hindsight i definitely get that feeling that some of them are like maybe we were better off under the nationalist government than they are now (at least from what i have heard first hand) but at the time i'm amazed that a majority were in favour given what was being waved in front of them (basically proper democracy).

Ultimately i'd still go with a bigger south-african indian diaspora though in the case of a civil war. I could see them going to Australia, America, Canada and Britain due to being generally well educated and a lot of them were skilled (it already kind of happened in otl, i think a civil war would mean more of it). I'd imagine the only one's who stay are actively politically, very stubborn, those unable to move entirely or have business interests would stay. Indian's don't really have a horse in this war otherwise. Either way I'd imagine a civil war, despite south africa being home, being the ultimate thing that will push them to move and try seek a better life elsewhere.
 
Larry Bond's Vortex has quite a good scenario about a South African civil war in the early 1990s. It's years since I read it, but still one of the best fictional works by a foreigner set in South Africa.
Love that book. Karl voster insults the chief whose suppposed to be Buthelezi as a seskapal, creature, I used that once to criticize a doctor who wanted to cut out my brain.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I actually envisioned a SA civil War in the 1960s. The POD is the stay in commonwealth side narrowly wins the referendum and united party government under Graaf passes legislation to grant franchise to Indians and mixed races. Boer nationalist in military and with support nationalist party revolt and we get civil war that evenrually turns into 3 way war with blacks supported by soviets fighting 2 white groups.
 
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Czar Kaizer

Banned
I specifically said the Eastern Cities in my first post, my apologies for not re-stating it again during the response.



NYT is right if you look at the election data from 1994. KwaZulu-Natal is where the vast majority of Indians in South Africa live and, according to the 1996 Census, they as well as the Whites and Coloureds made up ~17% of the total population combined. Interestingly enough, the National Party, the Democratic Party, Minority Front, African Christian Democratic Party, and the Freedom Front got ~16% of the vote combined. Unless you're claiming large numbers of Black voters crossed over to support the National Party for example, there is no other explanation for this then the fact that the Indians largely joined the Whites and Coloureds in voting against the ANC (and IFP).
A large percentage of black voters did vote for the National party, as much as I despise the, the Nat's ran on a very different platform in 1994 from what they represented during apartheid, they tried to portray themselves as the only viable opposition that would prevent an a total ANC land slide. The Majority of Coloured and Indian voters who were opposed to and protested against apartheid but had misgivings about the ANC getting too powerful.
 
Where does Islam fit in???
Some of them are Muslims, Many non-Indians are Muslim there.

mostly with the indians i would imagine. Most of the muslims at the time had been settled for a long time and had integrated with the indian community (and themselves considered themselves indian for the most part).

Religiously their is a difference but it isn't a huge thing since there were indians who came over and were practising muslims anyway.

As for the non indian muslims, not sure if religion would be the main barrier, i think it would be more based upon ethnicity moreso than anything else.
 

samcster94

Banned
mostly with the indians i would imagine. Most of the muslims at the time had been settled for a long time and had integrated with the indian community (and themselves considered themselves indian for the most part).

Religiously their is a difference but it isn't a huge thing since there were indians who came over and were practising muslims anyway.

As for the non indian muslims, not sure if religion would be the main barrier, i think it would be more based upon ethnicity moreso than anything else.
interesting, I just know Islam is the largest non Christian religion there in OTL democratic South Africa
 
interesting, I just know Islam is the largest non Christian religion there in OTL democratic South Africa

not all that surprising either (i would have thought that 2nd largest would be hinduism to be honest though, then again their are a lot of christian indians). To begin with their was a large muslim population, now their are a fair few people immigrating from Pakistan to South Africa so therefore you would also have a large population there.
 
I actually envisioned a SA civil War in the 1960s. The POD is the stay in commonwealth side narrowly wins the referendum and united party government under Graaf passes legislation to grant franchise to Indians and mixed races. Boer nationalist in military and with support nationalist party revolt and we get civil war that evenrually turns into 3 way war with blacks supported by soviets fighting 2 white groups.
Good idea, Graff doesn't get the respect he deserved. He also wanted to allow Bantu to have white representatives in parliament
 
Political Islam does not really exist in SA so I doubt Muslims will be a significant issue. Religion is not a particular societal faultline in SA, at least compared to race, ethnicity etc. Also a large number of coloureds are also Muslims, which was originally brought to SA by Malay slaves.
 
Larry bond wrote a book it which the hnp takes power, they intitally tried to use the Zulu.
The chief a Buthelezi clone fought against, it. The facist leader used the Afrikaans word seskapal, means creature. I used it as a wheelchair user, against people who think I am stupid.
 
Larry bond wrote a book it which the hnp takes power, they intitally tried to use the Zulu.
The chief a Buthelezi clone fought against, it. The facist leader used the Afrikaans word seskapal, means creature. I used it as a wheelchair user, against people who think I am stupid.

I think the word is actually 'skepsel'.
 
Here's an article about the 2011 elections. It looks at Indian voting patterns and finds the vote is fairly split. Indian majority areas voted for either the DA, ANC or the Minority Front (the only explicitly Indian party in SA).

http://thoughtleader.co.za/mandelar...d-the-indians-vote-for/?wpmp_switcher=desktop

I'm not surprised at this occurring in 2011, after all the time and political events since 1994 had come to pass. As well, given the face the DA and ANC are the two main parties, Indians largely voting between them and their own ethnic party is not surprising.
 
I'm not surprised at this occurring in 2011, after all the time and political events since 1994 had come to pass. As well, given the face the DA and ANC are the two main parties, Indians largely voting between them and their own ethnic party is not surprising.

If Indians are so scared of the ANC why would they vote ANC though?

My cousin's boyfriend,of Indian descent and a fairly well known political b analyst in South Africa had this to say about the meme that Indians somehow liked apartheid.
Screenshot_20170804-085609.png
 
I'm not surprised at this occurring in 2011, after all the time and political events since 1994 had come to pass. As well, given the face the DA and ANC are the two main parties, Indians largely voting between them and their own ethnic party is not surprising.

Turnout for the elections in 1984 to the coloured and Indian parliamentary houses was only 30 and 16% respectively. a fairly clear rejection of the system.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_general_election,_1984
 
If Indians are so scared of the ANC why would they vote ANC though?

Because the political situation from 2011 was dramatically different from that in 1994, where the switch to majority rule had yet to happen and there were numerous incidents occurring to frighten the Indian community.

My cousin's boyfriend,of Indian descent and a fairly well known political b analyst in South Africa had this to say about the meme that Indians somehow liked apartheid.View attachment 337049

Apartheid, no. The National Party as the 1980s progressed and through the 1990s up to 1994 at least, yes.
 
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