AHC: South African civil war

I challenge you all to create a scenario in which South Africa is plunged into a civil war with the POD being Nelson Mandela dying in prison during the 80s'. What factions would fight in the war, which nations would intervene and what would be the outcome and what would be the social and political effects of the civil war both in South Africa and in the outside world? The war can progress and end in anyway you want, but make sure it is plausible.
 
OTL South Africa's population is 80% black, 8.4 % white, 8.8 % coloured plus a few Indians etc. The white population is declining due to low birth rates and emigration.
Oddly they are geographically divided with the eastern half of SA dominated by blacks, while western 40% is dominated by various colours.

Therefore, a SA civil war would pit the dominant blacks in the east trying to over-run minorities (of a variety of colours) in the west.
The next question is: where is most of SA's industry?
Which provinces are wealthiest?
Which provinces are poorest?
Which provinces have the most productive farms?
Which provinces have the most productive mines?
Etc.
 
It would be very much like the syrian civil war and yugoslavian breakup but on steroids. The first phase would be various militia/protest groups fighting it out in the bantustans and townships... more incidents like the bophuthatswana coup attempt. Initially, there wouldnt be a clear geographic boundary for the fighting(no east vs west).

I think many of the main right wing groups would be depleted early in the fighting...so no AWB after the first year.

Opposition groups would be diverse... some catering to all races, only blacks and coloured, or specific ethnic groups (ie zulu). These opposition groups might also spend as much time fighting themselves and carving out fiefdoms as they do fighting the government.

Initially the government would be in control of the country but that would shrink to just control of the cities... transportation between cities will be shaky and they would be under constant siege. The government might make an effort to evacuate to the cape and secure the area...by wooing the loyalties of coloured groups who may face threats from militants from the east.
 
Would it be the early 80s or the late 80s? Even five years would change things quite a bit in that timeframe.
If it happens late, no USSR to intervene/resupply one of the factions.
 

Czar Kaizer

Banned
There wasn't a civil war in SA? That's news to me, the political violence in KZN between the ANC, the IFP and the government was already pretty close to it and thousands of people were killed in the violence.
You would have to have the already racist Nats be replaced by a party even more extreme. High civil unrest and political violence was enough to bring the Nat's to the negotiating table, you would need a very insane neo Nazi style government in power to let things go down to a civil war. So let's say the AWB overthrows the government, they are the only people who would be racist and insane enough to attempt to start a civil war and even then moderate Afrikaners and the entirety of the white English speaking community would never support them. They are a small minority even among Afrikaans conservatives.
 
There wasn't a civil war in SA? That's news to me, the political violence in KZN between the ANC, the IFP and the government was already pretty close to it and thousands of people were killed in the violence.
You would have to have the already racist Nats be replaced by a party even more extreme. High civil unrest and political violence was enough to bring the Nat's to the negotiating table, you would need a very insane neo Nazi style government in power to let things go down to a civil war. So let's say the AWB overthrows the government, they are the only people who would be racist and insane enough to attempt to start a civil war and even then moderate Afrikaners and the entirety of the white English speaking community would never support them. They are a small minority even among Afrikaans conservatives.
What of the prospect of the CP getting a majority in the House of Assembly? I don't see Treurnicht being willing to negotiate with the ANC.
 
What of the prospect of the CP getting a majority in the House of Assembly? I don't see Treurnicht being willing to negotiate with the ANC.

They did fairly well in the last whites-only election in 1989, winning nearly a third of the white vote. Perhaps in a TL where the Soviet Union doesn't fall, and unrest spreads, we could see whites drawing more and more into a laager and giving the CP, a win, or forcing the Nats into a coalition with them. That in itself is an interesting TL - would the Nats go with the CP or the more reformist DP?
 
There wasn't a civil war in SA? That's news to me, the political violence in KZN between the ANC, the IFP and the government was already pretty close to it and thousands of people were killed in the violence.
You would have to have the already racist Nats be replaced by a party even more extreme. High civil unrest and political violence was enough to bring the Nat's to the negotiating table, you would need a very insane neo Nazi style government in power to let things go down to a civil war. So let's say the AWB overthrows the government, they are the only people who would be racist and insane enough to attempt to start a civil war and even then moderate Afrikaners and the entirety of the white English speaking community would never support them. They are a small minority even among Afrikaans conservatives.

The security state was fairly confident they could keep the unrest manageable for the next ten to fifteen years, at least. The real catalyst for the Nats accepting the need for reform was the end of the Cold War. Sanctions probably played a smallish role too.
 
Larry Bond's Vortex has quite a good scenario about a South African civil war in the early 1990s. It's years since I read it, but still one of the best fictional works by a foreigner set in South Africa.
 
honestly not all that hard. If South Africa doesn't start some types of reform in the 80's i think you could easily get a civil war. Maybe a hardliner comes instead of Botha. With the mass protests, you have this new head of state come down hard on any dissident/protesting. A Soweto or Sharpville or two later and you're probably already there.

Bonus if Mandela dies in prison (either due to medical negligence or a guard kills him). That alone puts it on the brink even with reform, if you have a hardliner + Mandela's death, well i don't think i need to state how bad things would be. One can only hope that the national government would be disposed quickly after that (i doubt it though, they were pretty damn good militarily).


Who would most Indians side with?

The side that can get them out of the country the fastest. I don't think the indian's want any of that, they'd probably just want to sell and go. Ultimately though i'd have to say they'd side with the black's because it was the white's who were the oppressing race (even to this day, their isn't any loved lost between a lot of the older generations and any other race).
 
OTL South Africa's population is 80% black, 8.4 % white, 8.8 % coloured plus a few Indians etc. The white population is declining due to low birth rates and emigration.
Oddly they are geographically divided with the eastern half of SA dominated by blacks, while western 40% is dominated by various colours.

Therefore, a SA civil war would pit the dominant blacks in the east trying to over-run minorities (of a variety of colours) in the west.
The next question is: where is most of SA's industry?
Which provinces are wealthiest?
Which provinces are poorest?
Which provinces have the most productive farms?
Which provinces have the most productive mines?
Etc.

According to the Study Commission on U.S. Policy toward Southern Africa, the White population in 1980 was 16.7% of the population; they were largely concentrated in the cities of the East (Largely Afrikaner/Boer there), and in the Cape Province (Largely the English speaking Whites). This means that in the opening phases of a conflict, the SADF will be able to quickly gain control over the vast majority the largest province in the Republic, as well as its economically vital cities. Long term I can definitely said cities being evacuated by SADF, with the Whites, Coloureds, and Asians fleeing to the Cape. Don't know how true it is, but I have been told second hand that the Black neighborhoods in cities by the 1980s were largely designed so that, in case of an uprising, their Air Force could easily bomb them.

Lastly, to speak of a unified Black identity/faction in a Civil War is a nonstarter. As others have alluded to, there was particularly savage direct fighting between the various nationalities, in particular between the Zulu-aligned Inkatha Party and the ANC. In fact, one of the things Mandela demanded in the lead-up to the end of Apartheid was the end of support the the Nationalist Party was still giving to the Zulus to undermine the ANC. I fully expect that, should a Civil War break out in South Africa, you're just as likely to see the Blacks fighting each other as they are the Whites. Indeed, such divides are ongoing to this day as the Marikana Killings show.

The side that can get them out of the country the fastest. I don't think the indian's want any of that, they'd probably just want to sell and go. Ultimately though i'd have to say they'd side with the black's because it was the white's who were the oppressing race (even to this day, their isn't any loved lost between a lot of the older generations and any other race).

After the 1983 Reforms, Indians pretty firmly slid into the Nationalist Party/Pro-Apartheid camp. In the lead up to the 1994 elections, Black on Asian provocations in particular were worrying for them, as contemporary reporting by the New York Times shows:

PHOENIX, South Africa, April 18— There was nothing obviously threatening about the three black women who knocked on Neele Rajoo's door last month and said they were looking for work. Although she had no use for another housekeeper, Mrs. Rajoo, a 46-year-old shop clerk of Indian descent, offered them a seat and some water.

"They were very well dressed and very educated and spoke perfect English," Mrs. Rajoo said.

Then, matter-of-factly, as though she were buying a packet of gum, one of the women placed a two-rand coin -- about 60 cents -- into her empty cup. This, she said, was a deposit on Mrs. Rajoo's house. They would return after election day, she added, to take possession of what was rightfully theirs.

Odd encounters like this one have been reported with increasing frequency in the last few months here, part of a campaign that appears to be organized but remains mysterious in its origins. The Message Seems Clear

For Mrs. Rajoo, however, there was no mystery in the message: blacks are poised to seize not only power but just about anything else they want, confident that the future black Government will do little to stop them. And that explains why she and her sister Kogie, 47, who live together in a comfortable two-story house in one of South Africa's few racially mixed residential areas, say they expect to cast their vote later this month for the National Party, the inventors and enforcers of apartheid.

"I've lived and worked with blacks all my life, and I've always supported their struggle and supported the African National Congress," Mrs. Rajoo said. "But now we're scared. When we look at the blacks, whether it is the A.N.C. or Inkatha, all we see is violence and fighting."

The Rajoos' shift in allegiances illustrates the extraordinary changes under way here on the outskirts of Durban, a port city and commercial center of Natal Province and home to the largest concentration of Indians outside of India. Indians account for not quite 3 percent of South Africa's population of 35 million.

In yet another reverberation from the collapse of South Africa's apartheid system, the bulk of the Indian community, once considered a natural ally of the black opposition, is now inclined to support the National Party, according to recent polls and regional analyses.

For years, South Africa's one million Indians have faced a quandary. They are resented by many blacks, who see them as exploitative outsiders who treat Africans with condescension, if not outright disdain, yet they have never been accepted by whites.

At the same time, people of Indian descent have been at the forefront of those opposed to the apartheid system. India, for instance, was the first country to impose sanctions against South Africa 47 years ago and for decades the Indian Government recognized the African National Congress as the sole representative of the South African people. The congress has long had numerous Indians at every level.

Perhaps most telling, Mohandas K. Gandhi, who spent two decades here around the start of the century, established the Natal Indian Congress, now the oldest political organization in the country and among the first to mount organized resistance to the policies of successive white governments that disenfranchised blacks.

By most accounts, Gandhi took little interest in blacks, but his theories powerfully influenced the African National Congress, which was founded in 1912 and retained a creed of nonviolence for nearly half a century. Nelson Mandela has regularly invoked Gandhi as his spiritual mentor.

Given the Indian community's long history in the black resistance struggle, analysts initially assumed that Indians would line up squarely behind the black-dominated political parties, mostly the African National Congress but also the Zulu-based Inkatha Freedom Party in Natal. But lately there appears to be a clear shift of support among them toward the National Party. A Fear of Black Domination

African National Congress officials deny any signs of disaffection by potential Indian voters. "We have people out in the community, and we know that the Indians are strongly behind us," said Jacob Zuma, the congress's senior official in Natal.

But others reject this argument. Among those who believe that the National Party is likely to win big among Indians is Mahmoud Rajab, a former member of the disbanded three-chamber Parliament, which included Indians and people of mixed race, but excluded the country's black majority of 26 million people. He is now a parliamentary candidate of the Democratic Party, traditionally the liberal opposition to the National Party. "People are supporting the National Party because they fear black domination," Mr. Rajab said,

He estimates that in Natal the National Party will win 55 to 60 percent of the Indian vote, while the Democratic Party and the African National Congress will obtain about 15 percent each. By comparison, he estimates that perhaps five years ago, the National Party would have been fortunate to get more than 15 percent of the Indian vote. Other independent polls have shown similar support for the National Party.

Sathie Naidoo, 37, a former public relations man who is now a National Party candidate, said all issues boiled down to one central question: which party can best protect the interests of the majority of Indians who, despite apartheid, have prospered, especially in comparison with blacks.

"The Indian community in South Africa lives better than Indians anywhere else in the world," Mr. Naidoo said. "There is nobody here who goes to bed without a meal in their stomach, and there is nobody here who sleeps on the street.

"The way the Indian looks at it," Mr. Naidoo added, "who does the A.N.C. represent? Do they represent the masses of blacks walking the street, unemployed and uneducated, or are they representing me, who owns a house, whose children are going to school? That's where the fear is coming from." Indians Wary of 'the List'

Similar fears have been addressed in similar fashion in the western Cape Province, where surveys show that millions of mixed-race people, whose status has traditionally been only marginally better than that of blacks, are clearly disposed toward voting for the National Party.

Mr. Naidoo said that many Indians were especially concerned that a leftist A.N.C. government would stifle their entrepreneurial skills and money-making potential. Many Indians are also said to look nervously toward the new and often vaguely outlined affirmative action policies that many companies have begun to adopt, and a concept that the African National Congress strongly supports.

Nirode Brawdaw, manager of The Leader, a weekly newspaper in Durban aimed at the Indian community, said:

"The list works like this. If you're a black woman, you're great and you can walk into any door right now. If you're a black man, you're second. Then come colored and Indian women, Indian and colored men, and then whites." He added, "People are saying, there's my son, he has a B.A. degree, but can't find a job right now because no corporation is hiring an Indian or colored." Blacks Invade Housing Tract

For Mrs. Rajoo and many other Indians, the fear of black domination is not an abstract notion. In interviews, several dozen Indians almost invariably cited the example of a housing tract of 800 cottages near here called Cato Manor, which was built for Indian families.

In November, just as the finishing touches were being put on the subdivision, several hundred blacks from an overcrowded township nearby scratched their names on the doors and moved in. Perhaps just as astonishing, Mrs. Rajoo said, neither the lame-duck white authorities nor the future black Government leaders made any effort to evict the invaders.

The blacks felt they should be entitled to the houses, and they were adamant about it, Mrs. Rajoo said. "They wrote down on the doors, remember the 1949 riots," she said, a pointed allusion to the massacre in which 142 Indians died when black resentment over their treatment by Indian landlords exploded in an orgy of killing centered on Cato Manor.

"Cato Manor taught Indians a lesson that we'll never forget," Mrs. Rajoo said. "We have to look after our own interests first."

Maps show the location of Pheonix, South Africa.
 
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According to the Study Commission on U.S. Policy toward Southern Africa, the White population in 1980 was 16.7% of the population; they were largely concentrated in the cities of the East (Largely Afrikaner/Boer there), and in the Cape Province (Largely the English speaking Whites). This means that in the opening phases of a conflict, the SADF will be able to quickly gain control over the vast majority the last province in the Republic, as well as its economically vital cities. Long term I can definitely said cities being evacuated by SADF, with the Whites, Coloureds, and Asians fleeing to the Cape. Don't know how true it is, but I have been told second hand that the Black neighborhoods in cities by the 1980s were largely designed so that, in case of an uprising, their Air Force could easily bomb them.

Lastly, to speak of a unified Black identity/faction in a Civil War is a nonstarter. As others have alluded to, there was particularly savage direct fighting between the various nationalities, in particular between the Zulu-aligned Inkatha Party and the ANC. In fact, one of the things Mandela demanded in the lead-up to the end of Apartheid was the end of support the the Nationalist Party was still giving to the Zulus to undermine the ANC. I fully expect that, should a Civil War break out in South Africa, you're just as likely to see the Blacks fighting each other as they are the Whites. Indeed, such divides are ongoing to this day as the Marikana Killings show.



After the 1983 Reforms, Indians pretty firmly slid into the Nationalist Party/Pro-Apartheid camp. In the lead up to the 1994 elections, Black on Asian provocations in particular were worrying for them, as contemporary reporting by the New York Times shows:

Two things because I'm posting from my phone - whites in the eastern parts of SA aren't predominantly Afrikaans, Durban and Joburg are both pretty English while PE and Cape Town in the West have high Afrikaans populations.

And using Marikana as some evidence of an ethnic divide is absurd, it's far more complicated than that.
 
The side that can get them out of the country the fastest. I don't think the indian's want any of that, they'd probably just want to sell and go. Ultimately though i'd have to say they'd side with the black's because it was the white's who were the oppressing race (even to this day, their isn't any loved lost between a lot of the older generations and any other race).

What? Indians would consider themselves South African, they wouldn't all be scrambling to leave.

They would probably be on the ANC's side as they were in TTL. Lots of Indians played an important role in fighting apartheid - Ahmed Kathrada, the Pahad brothers, Ahmed Timol, Frene Ginwala, Strini Moodley etc.
 
Two things because I'm posting from my phone - whites in the eastern parts of SA aren't predominantly Afrikaans, Durban and Joburg are both pretty English while PE and Cape Town in the West have high Afrikaans populations.

And using Marikana as some evidence of an ethnic divide is absurd, it's far more complicated than that.

I specifically said the Cape Area was largely English Whites (Although the Cape is largely Afrikaans speaking, interestingly enough), while the Boers were more dominant in the cities. As far as Marikana goes, I'll grant you that but ethnic divide among Black South Africans is a very real thing:

Washington Post: ANC vs. Inkatha Slaughter (May 2, 1991)
South Africa History Online: 150 Dead in clashes between ANC, IFP (August 15, 1990)

They would probably be on the ANC's side as they were in TTL. Lots of Indians played an important role in fighting apartheid - Ahmed Kathrada, the Pahad brothers, Ahmed Timol, Frene Ginwala, Strini Moodley etc.

Except they weren't doing so IOTL by the late 1980s and into at least 1994 they were extremely wary of majority rule, as the New York Times reported.
 
I specifically said the Cape Area was largely English Whites (Although the Cape is largely Afrikaans speaking, interestingly enough), while the Boers were more dominant in the cities. As far as Marikana goes, I'll grant you that but ethnic divide among Black South Africans is a very real thing:

Washington Post: ANC vs. Inkatha Slaughter (May 2, 1991)
South Africa History Online: 150 Dead in clashes between ANC, IFP (August 15, 1990)



Except they weren't doing so IOTL by the late 1980s and into at least 1994 they were extremely wary of majority rule, as the New York Times reported.

Afrikaners really aren't dominant in the cities - it's a mix. Johannesburg, Durban, PE and East London will be more English while Bloem, Pretoria etc more Afrikaans. Cape Town is probably 50-50.

Even in the '94 election the ANC was the party of choice for most Indians. As I say I'm posting from my phone but there's an interesting paper that showed in '99 middle class Indians were more likely to go ANC compared to their poorer counterparts. Until today the ANC still gets fair levels of support from Indians so still not sure I agree with the NYT.
 
Afrikaners really aren't dominant in the cities - it's a mix. Johannesburg, Durban, PE and East London will be more English while Bloem, Pretoria etc more Afrikaans. Cape Town is probably 50-50.

I specifically said the Eastern Cities in my first post, my apologies for not re-stating it again during the response.

Even in the '94 election the ANC was the party of choice for most Indians. As I say I'm posting from my phone but there's an interesting paper that showed in '99 middle class Indians were more likely to go ANC compared to their poorer counterparts. Until today the ANC still gets fair levels of support from Indians so still not sure I agree with the NYT.

NYT is right if you look at the election data from 1994. KwaZulu-Natal is where the vast majority of Indians in South Africa live and, according to the 1996 Census, they as well as the Whites and Coloureds made up ~17% of the total population combined. Interestingly enough, the National Party, the Democratic Party, Minority Front, African Christian Democratic Party, and the Freedom Front got ~16% of the vote combined. Unless you're claiming large numbers of Black voters crossed over to support the National Party for example, there is no other explanation for this then the fact that the Indians largely joined the Whites and Coloureds in voting against the ANC (and IFP).
 
I specifically said the Eastern Cities in my first post, my apologies for not re-stating it again during the response.



NYT is right if you look at the election data from 1994. KwaZulu-Natal is where the vast majority of Indians in South Africa live and, according to the 1996 Census, they as well as the Whites and Coloureds made up ~17% of the total population combined. Interestingly enough, the National Party, the Democratic Party, Minority Front, African Christian Democratic Party, and the Freedom Front got ~16% of the vote combined. Unless you're claiming large numbers of Black voters crossed over to support the National Party for example, there is no other explanation for this then the fact that the Indians largely joined the Whites and Coloureds in voting against the ANC (and IFP).

Johannesburg and Durban are both eastern cities.

:-|

Re: Indian voting patterns, I think it's a bit more complex than that but it does seem likely more would have plumped for the opposition than the ANC.
 
Johannesburg and Durban are both eastern cities.

:-|

Re: Indian voting patterns, I think it's a bit more complex than that but it does seem likely more would have plumped for the opposition than the ANC.

On the cities:
According to the Study Commission on U.S. Policy toward Southern Africa, the White population in 1980 was 16.7% of the population; they were largely concentrated in the cities of the East (Largely Afrikaner/Boer there), and in the Cape Province (Largely the English speaking Whites).

As for the voting, according to the 1996 Census, Whites only made up 6.6% of the population in KwaZulu-Natal while the National Party alone got 11.21% of the total vote. Given that fact and what NYT was reporting at the time, there is no other logical explanation to explain the discrepancy other than the Indians overwhelmingly voting against the ANC and IFP.
 
On the cities:


As for the voting, according to the 1996 Census, Whites only made up 6.6% of the population in KwaZulu-Natal while the National Party alone got 11.21% of the total vote. Given that fact and what NYT was reporting at the time, there is no other logical explanation to explain the discrepancy other than the Indians overwhelmingly voting against the ANC and IFP.

On the cities, again Durban and Jhb are mostly English and in the east while CT may have more Afrikaners than English speakers.

Boer is also a mild pejorative.

Turnout amongst minorities is higher usually in SA elections which could explain some of the election results. When I'm not posting from my phone I'll give you some links.
 
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