AHC Somalia.

Make Somalia a middle income nation with a similar population to otl Tanzania, and with borders similar to this map.
Somali_map.jpg
 
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Population-wise, you have a long way to go. Tanzania has a lot of great farmland. The Horn, not so much.

Greater Somalia can't happen post-1960. Ethiopians and Kenyans are not going to be defeated by the "Shiftas".

And I don't see a European colonial power sinking much more into Somalia than Italy did - and of course colonialism may well have harmed future economic growth.

I think a centralized Somali kingdom pre-1800 is necessary.
 
Really? People are this pessimistic about Somalia?

The country was doing relatively fine until their defeat in the Ogaden War. Yes, they had a military coup that brought Mohamed Siad Barre to power, but he didn't become particularly autocratic until after the defeat, and he was still far more liberal than the Derg.

It surely wouldn't be impossible to have the Soviets not cut off supply to Somalia and side with the Derg. IMHO, without the Cuban troops in Ethiopia, the Somalis probably would've won anyway. That goes double if the Americans start to provide the Somalis with AA weapons.

Anyways, assuming that they win this, I think that, if the broad strokes of history stay relatively familiar (collapse of the USSR in early 90s etc.), then Somalia can do quite well. It will probably liberalise after Barre's death in 1995, and given its ethnic homogeneity, will hold together much better than Yugoslavia did. Somalia may not have a great deal of arable land, but its strategic position is excellent. If it can secure the capital for major port facilities, and build things like refineries to save money by buying crude, you could see Somalia building up enough wealth to reinvest in energy and transportation structure, and become a relative success. In many ways, it should have more prospects than Ethiopia. It's a shame really about the anarchy there at the moment.
 

ben0628

Banned
Really? People are this pessimistic about Somalia?

The country was doing relatively fine until their defeat in the Ogaden War. Yes, they had a military coup that brought Mohamed Siad Barre to power, but he didn't become particularly autocratic until after the defeat, and he was still far more liberal than the Derg.

It surely wouldn't be impossible to have the Soviets not cut off supply to Somalia and side with the Derg. IMHO, without the Cuban troops in Ethiopia, the Somalis probably would've won anyway. That goes double if the Americans start to provide the Somalis with AA weapons.

Anyways, assuming that they win this, I think that, if the broad strokes of history stay relatively familiar (collapse of the USSR in early 90s etc.), then Somalia can do quite well. It will probably liberalise after Barre's death in 1995, and given its ethnic homogeneity, will hold together much better than Yugoslavia did. Somalia may not have a great deal of arable land, but its strategic position is excellent. If it can secure the capital for major port facilities, and build things like refineries to save money by buying crude, you could see Somalia building up enough wealth to reinvest in energy and transportation structure, and become a relative success. In many ways, it should have more prospects than Ethiopia. It's a shame really about the anarchy there at the moment.

I personally feel that were not being pessimistic but rather realistic with a cynical attitude. Even if Somalia beats Ethiopia, I doubt that means everything gets better. There are many African countries that have so much more economic potential compared to Somalia, yet they are still a train wreck. And when Barre dies, I highly doubt that would mean"democracy for everyone!!!" More likely what would happen is someone claiming to believe in democracy would be elected to power, but over time the administration would become more and more oppressive until finally being considered a dictatorship, like many other countries in Africa.

Can Somalia be better off than it is now? Of course. Can it be as successful as you wanted? Doubtful.
 
I personally feel that were not being pessimistic but rather realistic with a cynical attitude. Even if Somalia beats Ethiopia, I doubt that means everything gets better. There are many African countries that have so much more economic potential compared to Somalia, yet they are still a train wreck. And when Barre dies, I highly doubt that would mean"democracy for everyone!!!" More likely what would happen is someone claiming to believe in democracy would be elected to power, but over time the administration would become more and more oppressive until finally being considered a dictatorship, like many other countries in Africa.

Can Somalia be better off than it is now? Of course. Can it be as successful as you wanted? Doubtful.

A lack of democracy doesn't preclude economic development. Whilst there has been a lot of mismanagement in Africa, that doesn't mean that every African country is preordained to be a basketcase. There's no reason that we can't have a non-democratic system (or, more likely, a so-called 'flawed democracy') that doesn't create some (unequal) economic development through a commercial oligarchy channeling investment through their channels.
 
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