Really? People are this pessimistic about Somalia?
The country was doing relatively fine until their defeat in the Ogaden War. Yes, they had a military coup that brought Mohamed Siad Barre to power, but he didn't become particularly autocratic until after the defeat, and he was still far more liberal than the Derg.
It surely wouldn't be impossible to have the Soviets not cut off supply to Somalia and side with the Derg. IMHO, without the Cuban troops in Ethiopia, the Somalis probably would've won anyway. That goes double if the Americans start to provide the Somalis with AA weapons.
Anyways, assuming that they win this, I think that, if the broad strokes of history stay relatively familiar (collapse of the USSR in early 90s etc.), then Somalia can do quite well. It will probably liberalise after Barre's death in 1995, and given its ethnic homogeneity, will hold together much better than Yugoslavia did. Somalia may not have a great deal of arable land, but its strategic position is excellent. If it can secure the capital for major port facilities, and build things like refineries to save money by buying crude, you could see Somalia building up enough wealth to reinvest in energy and transportation structure, and become a relative success. In many ways, it should have more prospects than Ethiopia. It's a shame really about the anarchy there at the moment.