AHC: Smallest, most desolate rump state possible

[Ryker of Terra]

Ernst Thälmann Island

I was about to suggest Ernst Thälmann Island too.

That's damn near perfect! Small in territory and population; only the US can conceivably intervene, but they would have to deal with Cuba too, which they probably won't be up for; and while it's not exactly desolate, it would still be isolated from everyone except their Cuban benefactor. And the rump state, already small as it is, will shrink even more as the hardliners die out.

IIRC, most of the people in West Sahara are Moroccan settlers who live in the Moroccan-occupied areas of the region, so there's that.

When I read about the SADR I assumed it was showing the population of the controlled territory only, not claimed. Though yeah, that does make more sense.

Edward VIII does not make it out of Paris and the Nazis send him to Jersey or Guernsey and call him reinstated King or something.

This would not be a rump state, the Nazis would just be taking a bit of territory they occupied and propping it up into something different for marginal legitimacy.

 

[Ryker of Terra]

Faustin Wirkus declares La Gonâve to be restored Haitian Empire (or even better-he proclaims it to be Poland in exile )

Missed this, my bad. Again, this would just be some random schmuck proclaiming a state that hasn't existed for a while with no legal ties or continuation.

Side note, but what a weird story.

 

[CarlosTheAltHistoryGuy]

Chavist Venezuela in Los Roques Island after the 2002 coup, maybe if the post coup government had other problems at home it survive for a few years

 

[oberdada]

Atatürk forms modern Turkey, but the Sultan somehow keeps (the European side of) Istanbul?
This would likely need a more successful Greece, that keeps the rest of modern Turkey in Europe and the enclave in Anatolia.
Istanbul is pretty much an international city and any annexation attempt would risk starting a mayor war

 

[Ryker of Terra]

Chavist Venezuela in Los Roques Island after the 2002 coup, maybe if the post coup government had other problems at home it survive for a few years

Small territory/population; somewhat isolated and a distracted mainland could drag it out. No one's likely to intervene given how unimportant the islands are. Similar to that Brazilian archipelago earlier in the thread.

 

[Ryker of Terra]

Atatürk forms modern Turkey, but the Sultan somehow keeps (the European side of) Istanbul?
This would likely need a more successful Greece, that keeps the rest of modern Turkey in Europe and the enclave in Anatolia.
Istanbul is pretty much an international city and any annexation attempt would risk starting a mayor war

Problem here is population and desolation - over 800,000 people and, separate political unit or not, it's still the gateway that separates the Med and Black Seas. Very busy place.

 

[oberdada]

Problem here is population and desolation - over 800,000 people and, separate political unit or not, it's still the gateway that separates the Med and Black Seas. Very busy place.

Maybe he just keeps Topkapi as some kind of sunni Vatican city

 

[Ryker of Terra]

Maybe he just keeps Topkapi as some kind of sunni Vatican city

Yep, that's more in line with our scenario.

 

[Raferty]

I was thinking of something like Oran becoming independent after the coup failed and becoming a garrison state of sorts for elements of the OAS, supported by Spain

 

[Ryker of Terra]

I was thinking of something like Oran becoming independent after the coup failed and becoming a garrison state of sorts for elements of the OAS, supported by Spain

Not familiar with the Algerian War. How many people were in the city, roughly?

 

[Rufus]

Would the cliche of Alaska being a White Taiwan where the Whites flee there after losing the Russian Civil War work for this or is it too big (even if 95% of it is practically uninhabited)?

Alaska might be too big, but what about the Aleutian Islands? Let’s say Russia still sells Alaska to the US, but keeps the islands (or at least some of them). After the Russian civil war, White generals and officials set up shop in one of the Aleutians, and are recognized as Russia’s legitimate government by the west. Eventually the USSR will get international recognition, leaving the government on the Aleutians in a kind of legal grey area (similar to Taiwan after 1973).

 

[Ryker of Terra]

Alaska might be too big, but what about the Aleutian Islands? Let’s say Russia still sells Alaska to the US, but keeps the islands (or at least some of them). After the Russian civil war, White generals and officials set up shop in one of the Aleutians, and are recognized as Russia’s legitimate government by the west. Eventually the USSR will get international recognition, leaving the government on the Aleutians in a kind of legal grey area (similar to Taiwan after 1973).

It would fit, but the Aleutians alone aren't likely to survive long. The US was isolationist before Pearl Harbor and they wouldn't protect them like they did Taiwan, meaning even the USSR's shit tier Navy could get the job done eventually. And hell, it's more likely that the Japanese grab them during the RCW instead, along with North Sakhalin and the Primorye region. They might give up the Aleutians like they did the rest, or they might keep it, but the Whites are probably fucked.

 

[CarlosTheAltHistoryGuy]

Not familiar with the Algerian War. How many people were in the city, roughly?

Around 305,000, if this website is to be believed https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/20035/oran/population

 

[oberdada]

OK, one more for the road:

November 1918, revolution in Germany, all the nobles resign, all the nobles? No; Frederick II, Grand Duke of Baden, refuses and retreats to Büsingen am Hochrhein, a small enclave of his realm within Switzerland.
And that is all that has been left of the once mighty Grand Duchy.
While Switzerland is not really happy with the situation, allowing German troops to pass to clean up the mess simply goes against the famous Swiss neutrality.

 

[Ryker of Terra]

Around 305,000, if this website is to be believed https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/20035/oran/population

Good find. That's too many though

 

[Rufus]

And hell, it's more likely that the Japanese grab them during the RCW instead, along with North Sakhalin and the Primorye region. They might give up the Aleutians like they did the rest, or they might keep it, but the Whites are probably fucked.

Hm, the US might not be happy if either Japan or the Soviets take over the Aleutians, since that would put them right at Alaska’s doorstep. So leaving the Whites in charge would be in the US interest.

 

[CarlosTheAltHistoryGuy]

OK, one more for the road:

November 1918, revolution in Germany, all the nobles resign, all the nobles? No; Frederick II, Grand Duke of Baden, refuses and retreats to Büsingen am Hochrhein, a small enclave of his realm within Switzerland.
And that is all that has been left of the once mighty Grand Duchy.
While Switzerland is not really happy with the situation, allowing German troops to pass to clean up the mess simply goes against the famous Swiss neutrality.

I personally like this idea

 

[CarlosTheAltHistoryGuy]

Hm, the US might not be happy if either Japan or the Soviets take over the Aleutians, since that would put them right at Alaska’s doorstep. So leaving the Whites in charge would be in the US interest.

What would stop the U.S from taking over islands themselves?

 

[Ryker of Terra]

OK, one more for the road:

November 1918, revolution in Germany, all the nobles resign, all the nobles? No; Frederick II, Grand Duke of Baden, refuses and retreats to Büsingen am Hochrhein, a small enclave of his realm within Switzerland.
And that is all that has been left of the once mighty Grand Duchy.
While Switzerland is not really happy with the situation, allowing German troops to pass to clean up the mess simply goes against the famous Swiss neutrality.

I was wondering if someone would mention Büsingen. That neutrality is the sticking point, isn't it? If they let them through, it might be a violation of neutrality, but if they don't, they will find their large neighbor less than pleased. Personally, I'm leaning towards they would let them through, as they allowed Allied troops to cross over to get the place under control at the end of WW2.

 

[Ryker of Terra]

Hm, the US might not be happy if either Japan or the Soviets take over the Aleutians, since that would put them right at Alaska’s doorstep. So leaving the Whites in charge would be in the US interest.

They definitely wouldn't like it, but Uncle Sam will likely want to wash his hands of it all, after the disastrous interventions in Siberia and Northern Russia. Besides, in this scenario, the Aleutians have been Russian for a long time. Soviets or Japanese taking those islands won't be seen as some great strategic blunder, but a return to the status quo (at least in the Soviet's case).