AHC: Small but powerful Russia.

I'm looking into having Russia be a leading great power or a superpower while at the same time keeping it as geographically reduced as possible. Any ideas?
 
Timeframe would be post 1850ish. As in, small Russia must be a leading great power by then. Any power in the top 10 of its world, for example, I would consider Germany, France, China, US, Japan, UK, Russia leading great powers of OTL 2016.
 
Timeframe would be post 1850ish. As in, small Russia must be a leading great power by then. Any power in the top 10 of its world, for example, I would consider Germany, France, China, US, Japan, UK, Russia leading great powers of OTL 2016.

1850 and beyond? If for some reason the Russian's don't get the Amur and that means no Vladivostok, that's the smallest I could see it remaining.
 
By that point? You'd have to have someone control Siberian plateau and knock it down to the core European territories.

Or just take it piecemeal.

Loss of the Amur territory/never gaining it, as BBadolato said.
Loss of Sakhalin in total, whether to Chinese or Japanese. (That can occur later on, and is more likely with the above).
Loss of Chukotka/Kamchatka/surrounding region. (Say a conquering Japan/US/UK, a sale to the US/Canada/UK, etc).
-If not the entire region, there were some islands that were nearly included in the Alaska purchase OTL but never were. Have those thrown in for some reason.
Loss of some additional Central Asian territory. (Don't see how much larger Kazakhstan could be; perhaps the region around Astrakhan is independent as well?)
Loss of the Norther Caucasus.
Loss of the Don Region to a greater Ukraine or the Kuban Region to a greater Ukraine. (Russia has to have some access to the Black Sea; losing one of these is hard. Losing both is harder.)
Greater Ukraine (Border adjustments in favor of independent Ukraine)
Not so sure about any Belarus changes.
No border adjustment with the Baltic nations; have them push slightly east.
No border adjustment with Finland.
Loss of parts of Karelia (Considering the whole of the Kola Peninsula and part of the Karelia will probably remain Russian)
Loss of Kaliningrad (easy one)

However, they keep access to the Pacific, lose more off the edges of their empire, and have nothing to show of their conquests. Of course, a Russia that has this bad of luck could hardly be called a great power, I don't think, unless they undergo a Germany-style transformation.
 
No, I mean the PoD can be whenever, around the 1600s maybe? But small Russia has to be a great power by 1850.
 
My best thought is you would have to have a very early POD, probably a Novgorod Russia. Because once Russia is formed by Moscovy, Russia will never stop trying to expand to the east, where their strong only opponent is Kazan (Sibir was never much of a threat and the Kazakhs were always divided). And once Russia starts eastward, they are going all the way to the Pacific. So the best thing to do is to change the center of Russia and where its ambitions and focuses are. If you have a Novgorod Russia, you can get Russia focused on the Baltic. This means Russia is going against several strong, independent foes which leads to a slower Russian expansion and smaller Russia in general. Also if Russia is focused on the Baltic and you strengthen the Cossack state you can keep Russia from expanding into the Black Sea. By 1850 Russia consists of the Estonia, Latvia, Finland, Lapland, Finnmark, Troms, Nordland, and Russian cores and some other bits and pieces. Russia's population is 30 million to 50 million I would say. It is heavily industrialized (coal and iron from Lapland and Russian core). And its great power status is built around its strong economy, dominance of the Baltic, and I dunno professional military.

Any other scenario ends with either too weak of a Russia or a still very larger Russia, but slightly smaller than OTL.
 

SRBO

Banned
Hard to do

Russia historically expanded to the east in order to acquire a natural border, and kept it's Asian lands as a continent-sized backup in case something bad happens in Europe they can just haul ass across the Urals (not much of an obstacle in most places)
 
My best thought is you would have to have a very early POD, probably a Novgorod Russia. Because once Russia is formed by Moscovy, Russia will never stop trying to expand to the east, where their strong only opponent is Kazan (Sibir was never much of a threat and the Kazakhs were always divided). And once Russia starts eastward, they are going all the way to the Pacific. So the best thing to do is to change the center of Russia and where its ambitions and focuses are. If you have a Novgorod Russia, you can get Russia focused on the Baltic. This means Russia is going against several strong, independent foes which leads to a slower Russian expansion and smaller Russia in general. Also if Russia is focused on the Baltic and you strengthen the Cossack state you can keep Russia from expanding into the Black Sea. By 1850 Russia consists of the Estonia, Latvia, Finland, Lapland, Finnmark, Troms, Nordland, and Russian cores and some other bits and pieces. Russia's population is 30 million to 50 million I would say. It is heavily industrialized (coal and iron from Lapland and Russian core). And its great power status is built around its strong economy, dominance of the Baltic, and I dunno professional military.

Any other scenario ends with either too weak of a Russia or a still very larger Russia, but slightly smaller than OTL.

Would that necessarily be a great power? Sounds more like a Baltic Italy--a nation that considers itself to be a great power but can't actually compete in the top tier of great powers, only to alter the balance of power between them as Italy did OTL in WWI and such.

My own scenario--get a strong Tatar state around Kazan to keep Russia from expanding to the east, as well as in the west a strong Poland-Lithuania and perhaps a Sweden that's almost but not quite as strong as OTL (so they don't mess up the Poland-Lithuania). Keep Russia divided until the 19th century. But maybe with more competition between the Russian states, these Russian states have higher literacy, more development, etc. than OTL early 19th century Russia did. At some point, nationalistic fervor succeeds in putting these Russian states together into a united Russia. Perhaps at the same time, Poland-Lithuania is declining for various reasons, and a southern Russian state (perhaps with the help of the cossacks, or it might be a cossack state that maintains a Russian identity and thus joins in this union) manages to grab Donbass and Kuban as well.

This Russia would be genuinely a great power, at least as much so as Russia was OTL, and possibly also lack many of the structural issues that plagued the late Tsarist period. It's population would be about 65-80 million in the modern day, and with strong agriculture, industrialisation and resources from Kola and elsewhere, very much a great power. If development evolves along the correct path, it could assume a role comparable to modern Germany OTL.
 
Would it be possible for a series of pro-Russian countries to control OTL Russian Asia? If Russia can still tap Siberia, but not control it, then it should technically fit. The trouble would be to get a Russia that views keeping Asia independent as preferable to annexed. Maybe a better Sibir defense coupled with a larger Mongol/Turkic/Kazakh population settling the area? (Maybe they're refugees who seek Russian protection against their kinsmen?)
 
Have the Russian dream of a warm water port focus not on the pacific, but on Persia. Use the Urals as the natural boundary and build friendly but independent ties nations to the East. In this way, Russia becomes the early gateway to Asia without the complications of going around Cape Horn.
 
The problem is that Russia itself is quite large-- even it's core region is quite massive as it is arguebly the result of the Muscovite Annexation of Novgorod as Muscovy solidified itself as the sole "Russian" state. So the smallest I can see Russia being and still mantaining it's great power status is north of the estuary of the Volga and West of the Urals-- essentially, Russia proper. All in all Russia would still have most it's population and heavy industry but ofcourse loose out big on natural resources-- regardless, smaller countries have achieved such status. This could be achieved if the Tatars somehow managed to hold back the Muscovites/Russians from spreeding east entirely, which is improbable for long as Russia increases in power. Maybe the Golden Horde holds on to it's possessions much longer than in our time line? Perhaps being unable to spread East would make the Russians more invested in Western affairs meaning that Russia would look westward to expand-- which is considerably more difficult than just claiming sparesly inhabited land thus limiting their geographic area. This would also allow Russia to become more Western, perhaps allowing Russia to stay ontop of military technology and better asert itself as a great power whilst still being smaller. A scenario like this also brings up a lot of interesting questions as to what would happen to the Khanates and Siberia if they were not conquered by the Russians.
 
The problem is that Russia itself is quite large-- even it's core region is quite massive as it is arguebly the result of the Muscovite Annexation of Novgorod as Muscovy solidified itself as the sole "Russian" state. So the smallest I can see Russia being and still mantaining it's great power status is north of the estuary of the Volga and West of the Urals-- essentially, Russia proper. All in all Russia would still have most it's population and heavy industry but ofcourse loose out big on natural resources-- regardless, smaller countries have achieved such status. This could be achieved if the Tatars somehow managed to hold back the Muscovites/Russians from spreeding east entirely, which is improbable for long as Russia increases in power. Maybe the Golden Horde holds on to it's possessions much longer than in our time line? Perhaps being unable to spread East would make the Russians more invested in Western affairs meaning that Russia would look westward to expand-- which is considerably more difficult than just claiming sparesly inhabited land thus limiting their geographic area. This would also allow Russia to become more Western, perhaps allowing Russia to stay ontop of military technology and better asert itself as a great power whilst still being smaller. A scenario like this also brings up a lot of interesting questions as to what would happen to the Khanates and Siberia if they were not conquered by the Russians.

Oh, and in addition perhaps reward Russia with Gotland, or an Exclave in Southern Sweden so that Russia can have a warmwater port-- essentially have Russia take one of those instead of Finland in the Great Northern War. Both would take up very little geographic space but also be important. In addition, the West Estonian Archipelago or the Åland Islands could be more or less suitable-- maybe an exclave in Riga or Kalingrad.
 
If you wanna go back to the Tatar Yoke period, have someone other than Muscovy unify the former Rus' principalities.

You could probably sell a more western-oriented Russia with its interests in the Baltic and Scandinavia. Problem is, eventually even a Baltic Russia will inevitably follow its fur-trading interests into the taiga and start to push eastward. Maybe prevent this by having Baltic Russia deterred from Siberian expansionism by losing a couple expeditions disastrously, or just setting up some post-Golden Horde survivor khaganates as client states rather than spending manpower trying to hold the taiga.
 
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