AHC: Sinkiang/Xinjiang/East Turkestan part of russia

China considered going to war with Russia in Central Asia during the 1870s. The causus belli was a revolt in Xinjiang that was backed by Russia.

China, however knew it would lose and decided against it. A stupid leader could have made the opposite decision. Russia would have taken the region as a prize.
 
Perhaps have Russia use its position in the Eight-Nation Alliance to demand it as a concession from China following the Boxer Rebellion.
 
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