AHC: Sharia in the former Soviet SSRs

With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan all declared their independence. While these countries have Muslim majority populations, the post-USSR governments have been secular and its leaders have ruled as authoritarian dictators while maintaining ties to Russia. Most of them have held prominent positions of power in the Communist party and military during Soviet rule (Heydar Aliyev was the highest-ranking Azeri official in the KGB and leader of the Azerbaijan SSR Communist party prior to getting elected President of Azerbaijan).

Is there any way that any of these stans could have adopted Islamic law (Sharia) and categorized its non-Muslim populations (Jews and Orthodox Christians) as dhimmis? If so, what would be a POD?
 
Sharia =/= Islamist law.

Many secular states use sharia as a judicial basis, because it's exactly what it is, at the exemple of western secular states using (among other things of course) the judeo-christian Ten Commandments as a basis.

There's an HUGE difference between using it this way, and claiming a return to Sharia/Decalogos without add or jurisprudence.
 
Tajikistan is your best bet, if Rahmom loses the civil war, than the Islamic Renessaince Party might introduce an islamic government.

It won't be a Taliban style government but a sort of Islamic single-party state like Sudan.
 
A Taliban like movement might be in Uzbekistan in the Ferhgana Valley if Karimov dies and the Uzbek state is fractious or in civil war, betweem differnt factions of ex-communists, the Islamic Movement in Uzbekistan might take over the valley and declare an Islamic Emirate there.
 
Faster population growth in the rural areas of Southern Kyrgyzstan, together with some Saudi meddling could, in theory, produce a movement that topples the government there.
 
A Taliban like movement might be in Uzbekistan in the Ferhgana Valley if Karimov dies and the Uzbek state is fractious or in civil war, betweem differnt factions of ex-communists, the Islamic Movement in Uzbekistan might take over the valley and declare an Islamic Emirate there.

This is basically the only way you're going to see any sort of truly Islamist government in Soviet Central Asia.

Faster population growth in the rural areas of Southern Kyrgyzstan, together with some Saudi meddling could, in theory, produce a movement that topples the government there.
Tajikistan is your best bet, if Rahmom loses the civil war, than the Islamic Renessaince Party might introduce an islamic government.

It won't be a Taliban style government but a sort of Islamic single-party state like Sudan.

Hrvatskiwi: Why? You're either looking at a more populated Ferghana Valley, which would go along with an IMU-led Islamic state in Central Asia, or you'd see a more Kyrgyz Osh/Batken/Jalalabad. And traditionally speaking, the Kyrgyz are less Islamist-inclined than the Uzbeks, hence the current rise of ultranationalist politicians in the region.

Zajir: That grossly oversimplifies the Tajik Civil War and the UTO in particular. The IRP didn't push for an Islamic state, but an "Islamic society", which is mostly semantics, but was done because the IRP depended on its allies, from actual democratic forces to the Lali Badakhsan Pamiri separatists. A UTO victory in the Tajik Civil War would both completely isolate Tajikistan, but would likely lead to a situation similar to Kyrgyzstan following the 2010 "Roza Revolution", as opposed to the Fall of Kabul 1992.
 
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