AHC: Second Winter War

With a POD after 1960, what could cause a second Winter War between the Soviet Union and Finland. Secondly, how would the war be fought (i.e. how many men would the Soviets commit) and, would the West intervene?
 
With a POD after 1960, what could cause a second Winter War between the Soviet Union and Finland. Secondly, how would the war be fought (i.e. how many men would the Soviets commit) and, would the West intervene?
I would think NATO in some kind of form would aid Finland in their struggle against the Soviet Union.
 
If you're after a localised war (i.e. not World War III) then this just isn't possible. The Soviets were more than comfortable with the Kekkonen regime, and with the Finnish political system, I simply can't visualise a far-right Finnish government with a hankering after Karelia after 1960.
 
Could there be any reason for the Soviets to want to conduct a regime change in Finland? Alternatively, what scenarios could lead to WW 3 that would involve war with Finland?
 
The only way you're getting regime change is if Kekkonen falls under a bus, and the National Coalition Party somehow wins a massive landslide with a plan to join NATO. Which isn't happening.
 
If you're after a localised war (i.e. not World War III) then this just isn't possible. The Soviets were more than comfortable with the Kekkonen regime, and with the Finnish political system, I simply can't visualise a far-right Finnish government with a hankering after Karelia after 1960.

I agree with the general argument here. There are no real reasons for the USSR to attack Finland at this time in a localised war, the only way Finland would realistically end in a war against the Soviets would be due a general NATO-WP confrontation. Even if Kekkonen for some reason steps down or is replaced as president, it is very hard to see anyone rising to the top who would not accept the general implications of the "Paasikivi-Kekkonen line" orthodoxy and act accordingly. Finland is still bound by the Finno-Soviet Treaty of 1948 anyway, and its economy is definitely benefiting from Soviet bilateral trade. In the 60s and the 70s, it is highly unlikely for anyone with openly anti-Soviet, pro-NATO views to prevail in the Finnish political reality. The Red Earth Coalition of the SDP and the Centre Party would make sure that the boat will not be rocked lest it should capsize entirely.

I am uncomfortable with you using the word "regime" here, though. Kekkonen was a perfectly legitimate president, constitutionally elected and with wide popular support. The 1973 special law to extend his presidential term without elections was iffy, but it still was supported by 170 votes to 28 against in a democratically elected parliament. There was opposition to Kekkonen during his tenure, and in general the Kekkonen presidency did undermine the functioning of Finnish democracy to an extent, due to an unhealthy amount of power concentrated at the top, but there never were any real issues about the legitimacy of the president's leadership.
 
I am uncomfortable with you using the word "regime" here, though. Kekkonen was a perfectly legitimate president, constitutionally elected and with wide popular support. The 1973 special law to extend his presidential term without elections was iffy, but it still was supported by 170 votes to 28 against in a democratically elected parliament.

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that Kekkonen was anything other than a legitimate President. I was thinking in terms of the wider political Establishment of the time, with its clear view of foreign policy.
 
Is a war therefore more likely earlier in the 1950s, or at a later date?

I'd say it is more likely in the late 40s or prior to the mid-50s, especially while Stalin was still alive (or if he lives longer). At this time, the Finnish far left was stronger, for a time controlling the Finnish State Police itself and planning for a coup, and the Finnish military was in disarray after the war and due to poor resources and funding, etc. If the domestic left in Finland could organize a serious coup attempt, the Soviet leadership might order an invasion to support the new "people's government" in Helsinki. Such a domestic Finnish uprising seems to have been a precondition for the Red Army moving against Finland at the time, in fact. The Soviets had learned from the Winter War and the end of the Continuation War that a united Finland is a tough nut to crack and thus preferred Finland weakened from the inside first.
 
Okay, in the event that the Finnish domestic left organise a serious coup attempt in the mid 50s, the Soviets seize their chance to create another friendly regime on their borders, how does this play out? Would NATO or Sweden intervene, or what would be needed for NATO to intervene?
 
If the leftist coup attempt manages to decapitate the government or at least seriously disrupt its working at a crucial time, I think the following Soviet invasion might lead into Helsinki falling in a week or so. The biggest factor, I think, is the existence of the Porkkala lease area under 50 km from the Finnish capital. If the Soviet military sends troops from Porkkala to Helsinki while the Finnish leadership is paralyzed, it can commit a coup de main to take Helsinki essentially without a battle.

After that, any Finnish action against the Red Army would likely be sporadic, amounting at best to a fighting retreat towards the west and the north. Under those circumstances, I find it hard to see the Swedish or NATO intervening. Once Helsinki is lost and a front in Eastern Finland would necessarily collapse (if it ever was created at all), there is no realistic chance Finland would prevail against the Soviets. Committing to an intervention in Finland would thus have little positive sides for either the Swedish or NATO - it would be joining a losing struggle. One of the first things the new Communist government in Helsinki would do would be to proclaim its legitimacy and its claim to the entire Finnish land and sea areas, and I don't think that for example the Swedish would move to take the Åland islands in that case. Anyway, one of the Soviet Navy's first actions would likely be to make a landing to take Mariehamn, so they would probably beat the Swedish to it even if they might attempt that.
 
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