AHC: Second Sino-Japanese War flip-flop

Someone posted in a thread a while back (I forgot who and what thread, otherwise I'd link it) of little-used PODs that an interesting one would be one where Imperial Japan and Nationalist China switched roles in the Sino-Japanese War/WWII Pacific Theater. I've been mulling such a scenario over ever since.

Basically, a US/UK-aligned Japan on the defensive vs a dictatorial, expansionist/nationalist China on the offensive.

So, my question is two-fold: 1 - What is/are the PODs needed to have this happen and 2 - What does a Second Sino-Japanese War look like? Does it stay a purely "China vs Japan" conflict or do the UK/France/USA all get involved too?

Bonus points if you can set it up so that Japan is a stronger democracy as well in the process, but that's not strictly needed for the AHC.

Thanks in advance for all the feedback!
 
If China is strong enough to the point were they can challenge Japan's positions in the continent, then the war will get a little boring, because China will just sweep the Japanese from the mainland and the rest of the conflict will just be two powers facing each other off in the East China Sea unable to touch the other. Unless third parties are involved.
 

nbcman

Donor
There wouldn't be a second Sino-Japanese War that would coincide with the European WW2. A strong Nationalist China could defend Manchuria from the Japanese invasion that occurred in the early 1930s IOTL. If Japan pushed their luck, they would be kicked out of Korea.
 
If China is strong enough to the point were they can challenge Japan's positions in the continent, then the war will get a little boring, because China will just sweep the Japanese from the mainland and the rest of the conflict will just be two powers facing each other off in the East China Sea unable to touch the other. Unless third parties are involved.

There will be the air war, though. Also, China might drive the Japanese out of its own territory (Manchuria, concessions...) but invading Korea would be much harder for the Chinese.
 
Someone posted in a thread a while back (I forgot who and what thread, otherwise I'd link it) of little-used PODs that an interesting one would be one where Imperial Japan and Nationalist China switched roles in the Sino-Japanese War/WWII Pacific Theater. I've been mulling such a scenario over ever since.

Basically, a US/UK-aligned Japan on the defensive vs a dictatorial, expansionist/nationalist China on the offensive.

So, my question is two-fold: 1 - What is/are the PODs needed to have this happen and 2 - What does a Second Sino-Japanese War look like? Does it stay a purely "China vs Japan" conflict or do the UK/France/USA all get involved too?

Bonus points if you can set it up so that Japan is a stronger democracy as well in the process, but that's not strictly needed for the AHC.

Thanks in advance for all the feedback!

To shamelessly plug my TL, "The Sun, The Stars and The Sickle", it involves a still right-wing but more moderate Japan allied with France and the UK, with a larger Navy and smaller Army than OTL. China allied with Germany, and renewed their alliance when Japan and Britain strengthened their ties.

As of 1941, the Chinese are attempting to push the Japanese out of Manchuria and Shandong.

POD is 1922 with a different Washington Naval Treaty. Japan got outbuilt faster and needed oil more, so sought out Britain as an ally, cognizant of the fact that Britain and the USA were unlikely to go to war with each other as well.
 
Someone posted in a thread a while back (I forgot who and what thread, otherwise I'd link it) of little-used PODs that an interesting one would be one where Imperial Japan and Nationalist China switched roles in the Sino-Japanese War/WWII Pacific Theater. I've been mulling such a scenario over ever since.

Basically, a US/UK-aligned Japan on the defensive vs a dictatorial, expansionist/nationalist China on the offensive.

So, my question is two-fold: 1 - What is/are the PODs needed to have this happen and 2 - What does a Second Sino-Japanese War look like? Does it stay a purely "China vs Japan" conflict or do the UK/France/USA all get involved too?

Bonus points if you can set it up so that Japan is a stronger democracy as well in the process, but that's not strictly needed for the AHC.

Thanks in advance for all the feedback!

It is almost impossible. The Nationalists would need to get their house in order, and that is a very daunting prospect, you have warlords, separatists, and no clear way forward for the country. Assuming they do keep Manchuria, the bigger question would be why invade Japanese occupied Korea?
 

nbcman

Donor
It is almost impossible. The Nationalists would need to get their house in order, and that is a very daunting prospect, you have warlords, separatists, and no clear way forward for the country. Assuming they do keep Manchuria, the bigger question would be why invade Japanese occupied Korea?
Revenge for their loss in the First Sino-Japanese war?
 
I have something like this in my TL where the KMT come to power early thanks to the Beiyang government being more stubborn and incompetent during the May 4th protests and that Japan retains its Taisho democracy and buddies up with the UK, France, and eventually the US (sort of) by the end of the 1930's.
 
To shamelessly plug my TL, "The Sun, The Stars and The Sickle", it involves a still right-wing but more moderate Japan allied with France and the UK, with a larger Navy and smaller Army than OTL. China allied with Germany, and renewed their alliance when Japan and Britain strengthened their ties.

As of 1941, the Chinese are attempting to push the Japanese out of Manchuria and Shandong.

POD is 1922 with a different Washington Naval Treaty. Japan got outbuilt faster and needed oil more, so sought out Britain as an ally, cognizant of the fact that Britain and the USA were unlikely to go to war with each other as well.

I'll add it to my (rapidly growing) list of TLs to read. Thanks!
 
Someone posted in a thread a while back (I forgot who and what thread, otherwise I'd link it) of little-used PODs that an interesting one would be one where Imperial Japan and Nationalist China switched roles in the Sino-Japanese War/WWII Pacific Theater. I've been mulling such a scenario over ever since.

Basically, a US/UK-aligned Japan on the defensive vs a dictatorial, expansionist/nationalist China on the offensive.

So, my question is two-fold: 1 - What is/are the PODs needed to have this happen and 2 - What does a Second Sino-Japanese War look like? Does it stay a purely "China vs Japan" conflict or do the UK/France/USA all get involved too?

Bonus points if you can set it up so that Japan is a stronger democracy as well in the process, but that's not strictly needed for the AHC.

Thanks in advance for all the feedback!
Requires a pre-1900 Chinese POD
 
It's certainly possible to imagine a TL where China, whether under the Qing or a post-Qing regime (Yuan Shikai pulls off his imperial restoration? the KMT keeps the Republic of China from falling apart?), is able to successfully modernize. I can, with more difficulty, imagine a scenario where Japan does not modernize, or at least does not modernize as successfully as OTL; Japan at the end of the Tokugawa was in many ways already a modern nation-state, simply a relatively poor one.

What would be the motive for a Chinese attack on Japan, even in a TL where China modernizes but Japan does not? I can imagine a conflict over the Ryukyu kingdom, but if China has a noteworthy lead over Japan ...
 
It is almost impossible. The Nationalists would need to get their house in order, and that is a very daunting prospect, you have warlords, separatists, and no clear way forward for the country. Assuming they do keep Manchuria, the bigger question would be why invade Japanese occupied Korea?
To liberate Koreans, weaken Japan, and also gain a new ally in the newly freed Korea.
 
I just had this thought... Germany is traditionally a land power, but under Willy 2, they tried challenging Britain on the high sea, which wasn't a good idea. For Japan OTOH it makes more sense to be a sea power, controlling some strategic harbors and peninsulas, but no, they wanted to carve a huge land empire out of China. - Would FDR have accepted if Japan had taken the Dutch East Indies, but not expanded beyond Manchuria?
 
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