AHC: Second American Civil War: Post 1860's but before WWI?

As it says on the tin, with a POD no later than 1861 and no later than 1914, is it possible for the US to undergo a Second Civil War? Bonus points if it's pre-1900.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
No; honestly, other than slavery and/or its expansion,

As it says on the tin, with a POD no later than 1861 and no later than 1914, is it possible for the US to undergo a Second Civil War? Bonus points if it's pre-1900.

No; honestly, other than slavery and/or its expansion, the ability of the US to find space within its politics for just about every region/group that cared to get involved is pretty much a given historical reality.

How does a federal democracy that enshrines pluralism and equality before the law going to get to the point where there is enough division that politically-inspired violence will rise to the level of civil war?

Very few societies/nations ever embark on what would be considered an internal conventional war absent deeply dysfunctional politics; that is not something one would expect to find in an industrializing and economically expanding democracy in the West in the past couple of centuries, absent a situation as (for example) polarized as Spain in the 1930s, and even there it was initially a military coup/revolution.

Best,
 
No; honestly, other than slavery and/or its expansion, the ability of the US to find space within its politics for just about every region/group that cared to get involved is pretty much a given historical reality.

How does a federal democracy that enshrines pluralism and equality before the law going to get to the point where there is enough division that politically-inspired violence will rise to the level of civil war?

Very few societies/nations ever embark on what would be considered an internal conventional war absent deeply dysfunctional politics; that is not something one would expect to find in an industrializing and economically expanding democracy in the West in the past couple of centuries, absent a situation as (for example) polarized as Spain in the 1930s, and even there it was initially a military coup/revolution.

Best,

Was my fear actually, anything that could be changed about the civil war that could affect things, or are we looking earlier?
 
Wasn't there a close call around 1877? If I remember correctly it was about angry workers or something.

It was a strike in several cities because of the poor economic conditions due to a depression in Europe coming over to the United States. A major bank failed and due to lack of capital many railroads failed and workers were out of work or very underpaid. They went of strike and after several weeks the militia and the army went from city to city and suppressed the strike. This only occured in several cities not nearly enough to be considered a civil war or anything close to it.
 
Wasn't there a close call around 1877? If I remember correctly it was about angry workers or something.

The Great Railroad Strike of 1877
. Little to no chance of that developing into anything, it wasn't organized, and it was still considered acceptable to use the army to put down strikes at the time. They had zero chance of even achieving the better wages they wanted, let alone ripping the country apart.
 

Gaius Julius Magnus

Gone Fishin'
Hard sell. Maybe an agreement isn't reached over the 1876 election but that's probably to soon after the Civil War for the political leadership to let happen again. Maybe the 1890s Depression is worse than otl and Western States begin implementing policies they want or ignore laws passed by the Federal government to deal withe crisis on their own.
 
Hard sell. Maybe an agreement isn't reached over the 1876 election but that's probably to soon after the Civil War for the political leadership to let happen again. Maybe the 1890s Depression is worse than otl and Western States begin implementing policies they want or ignore laws passed by the Federal government to deal withe crisis on their own.

They couldn't ignore laws passed by the federal government because that is pretty much what South Carolina tried to do during the nullification crisis and the government put a stop to that and the national government was willing to enforce unity through force. Also the western states at this time didn't have the population to resist for long. Also their entire economy depended on getting resources to the rest of the country so that would quickly force them back into compliance.
 
with a POD no later than 1861 and no later than 1914
Maybe this should be amended?

Anyway, you'd need to have the issue of slavery not settled by the first civil war and come up again, otherwise there's no issue that's regional enough and divisive enough to lead to civil war (I mean, maybe Bryan, gold standard, and the Populists in the west, but that's really stretching the bounds of plausibility).
 
I think continuously throwing wrenches into the Compromise of 1877 would be the best chance here. I guess in OTL there was some talk of Democrats forming armed units to march on Washington but that never happened because Grant beefed up security around the Capital (not to mention the recent memory of the Civil War and how that would probably be tantamount to political suicide).

I don't see how any armed confrontation would last longer than a few months (or weeks) in this scenario though. Maybe the Great Railroad Strike could be worked in somehow.
 
A Confederate victory in the OTL war would probably do the trick, in terms of forcing a rematch further down the line.
 
Maybe this should be amended?

Anyway, you'd need to have the issue of slavery not settled by the first civil war and come up again, otherwise there's no issue that's regional enough and divisive enough to lead to civil war (I mean, maybe Bryan, gold standard, and the Populists in the west, but that's really stretching the bounds of plausibility).

I kept it as 1861 because maybe the civil war itself could go differently or be less conclusive (although the CSA already had a lot of factors working against them). My knowledge on this period is limited to reading from around the board.
 
I kept it as 1861 because maybe the civil war itself could go differently or be less conclusive (although the CSA already had a lot of factors working against them). My knowledge on this period is limited to reading from around the board.

I believe the reference is to the fact it should be no earlier than 1861 or later than 1914.

At any rate, Hayes was willing to agree to a lot of Tilden's sagenda and to remove Federal troops, so what I think you need is a bit earlier.

Let's say that President Grant's insistence on ending the Klan leads to his assassination after newspaper reports show he's sure to wint he election (and Greley dies anyway). The Radicals are enraged at the South for this, but now, like the Democrats, their electors are free to vote for anyone. Southern governors are enraged as Federal troops become violent agaisnt the Klan over the murder of Grant, and as V.P. Colfax, a real lame duck as President for a few months, tries to calm things supporters of him suggest he should get Grant's electoral votes isntead.

So, a divide int he GOP at a crucial time causes violence to break otu more tand more in the South, and while states might not secede, the idea of guerilla warfare - proposed by some near the end but quashed by men like Lee - gains traction. With Longstreet one of few opposing it being practicallypersona non grata in Southern circles for being a Republican (and for disagreeing with lee, who was lionized), a major problem erupts.

if the Panic of 1873 can come a bit earlier and throw things into more of a mess, you might be able to make it a 2nd Civil War and not just a small insurrection.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
If you're talking about a civil "war" as opposed to

Was my fear actually, anything that could be changed about the civil war that could affect things, or are we looking earlier?

If you're talking about a civil "war" as opposed to insurrection, political violence, etc, not really - after 1775-83, although the US had plenty of potential "enemies" elsewhere on the continent, internally the only real faultline was going to be the sectional crisis over slavery, because of the wealth concerned...

Best,
 
Top