AHC: Scramble for Antarctica

Hmmmm... how about no Antarctic Treaty in 1961? Then when the oil crises hit, there's a scramble for the oil in the Arctic by various nations in Europe and the Americas (and probably South Africa too).
 
Hmmmm... how about no Antarctic Treaty in 1961? Then when the oil crises hit, there's a scramble for the oil in the Arctic by various nations in Europe and the Americas (and probably South Africa too).

Even without the Antarctic Treaty, I still think the challenges of inhabiting the continent are too great for the motivation to search for unproven reserves. At the least, you'd need hard evidence of large quantities of oil (as in, Saudi oil fields levels). Even then, I don't think it would be feasible to develop the area until the 21st century.
 

Kongzilla

Banned
Hell even with an antarctic treaty if Fossil fuels get short and there is a deposit of it under Antarctica people will be rushing to get a piece.
 
Hell even with an antarctic treaty if Fossil fuels get short and there is a deposit of it under Antarctica people will be rushing to get a piece.

I'm not sure this is really true, but I've read that there is believed to be oil off the Antarctic coast, but the ice-choked conditions make it too expensive to extract even at $150/barrel prices.
 
What about gold? I've read there's some belief that parts of Antarctica have gold deposits, due to geological similarity with South Africa. No one's sure because there's never been a good survey since it's off-limits to mining. I don't know if that would be economical to extract even if it's there, but it's a thought.

Alternatively, how about prestige? Suppose one of the countries holding currently dormant Antarctic claims decides to activate them for internal political reasons - you know, need to show the voters that unspecifiedivillia holds its own in the wider world. That leads to the other claimants activating their claims in self-defense.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Hard to do, since it really be mostly for ego. Little that can be economically extracted. I guess in some ATL where the great European empires survive until today, you could have a ego race for Antarctica.
 
This might be more Future History than AH. I think that even with an Antarctic Treaty, the Middle East eventually runs out of oil, forcing buyers like America, Europe and China to looks elsewhere. Possible places are Australia, Canada and Russia, but again, oil runs out, so they head for Antarctica. Granted, this will take decades, probably even into the 22nd Century, but that's all I can think of. There's not much you can actually do with/on Antarctica
 

Ancientone

Banned
Current territorial claims are those that existed in 1908--not 1961. Some of the British claims were devolved to Australia and New Zealand,
Claims made by the USA and Nazi Germany involving the dropping of flags from aircraft are not considered valid by anyone but the USA.
9_treaty_map_510.jpg
 
I can't imagine it'd be very profitable.

"Mr. Explorer, Mr. Explorer, what did you claim for our nation?"
"I claimed a whole bunch of hostile ice. You're welcome!"
 
I can't imagine it'd be very profitable.

"Mr. Explorer, Mr. Explorer, what did you claim for our nation?"
"I claimed a whole bunch of hostile ice. You're welcome!"

To be fair, much of Africa was unprofitable, too, and that didnt stop the scramble for africa.

Besides, as Ancientone pointed out, there WAS a scramble for antarctica, just not as ... violent.
 

whitecrow

Banned
Nazi Germany survives and has world-wide influence. This New Swabia survives. Thus other nations set up other Antarctic colonies in order to not be outdone by Nazi Germany.
 
A scramble for Antarctica will eventually lead to a permanent population with built-up infrastructure, including cities. Eventually, after a few generations, Antarcticans will develop a new nationality, and it ends with independence.
 

whitecrow

Banned
A scramble for Antarctica will eventually lead to a permanent population with built-up infrastructure, including cities. Eventually, after a few generations, Antarcticans will develop a new nationality, and it ends with independence.
Not all colonies get (or even want) independence. See Gibraltar, Falklands, French Guiana, various Pacific Island territories, etc.
 
A scramble for Antarctica will eventually lead to a permanent population with built-up infrastructure, including cities. Eventually, after a few generations, Antarcticans will develop a new nationality, and it ends with independence.

There are four major obstacles to that happening:

1) No arable land. That means any food used by any colonization attempt has to be shipped in.

2) Extremely expensive logistics. The local environment, especially at sea, makes any trips down there much more expensive than they would be anywhere else.

3) Inhospitable climate. The only animal that actually lives there year-round is a gnat-sized insect, even the famous penguins of Antarctica don't stay year-round.

4) No economic incentive. Even with the speculated oil and gold reserves the cost of extraction greatly exceeds any benefit that would be gained.

These factors mean you won't see any large-scale settlement of the continent barring very serious climate change or sufficiently advanced technology to overcome all four obstacles.
 
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