AHC: Save the United Kingdom of Portugal Brazil and the Algarves

[unprincipled peter]

Won't pretend to know the reason why, but I have yet to read a history book that doesn't have Pedro refusing to go in '20. I've also read that, up to that point, he'd been had to be ordered to stop womanizing, and had a lousy reputation/ expectation for living up to what what assumed to be his role (king of Portugal/Algarves/Brazil). Not being prepped for the role is not unique in European royal history ( beats the heck out of me why- seems like sort of an important task).

I've read a lot, but not enough to get into an argument with a scholar on the topic. Personally, I get the feeling he would have had to be trussed up and thrown on to a ship against his will to go to Portugal in '20. I do believe the request had been made of him, and he refused. Events soon made the point moot, as Portugal demanded the king, not a regent, return. IMO, Joao and Pedro should have said go scratch and stayed (the future was in Brazil in any viewpoint), but I don't have a good feel on whether independence would have come as easily as it did a year or so later. OTL bloodshed was reletively minimal for independence, but there was plenty of blood spilled in the next 10-20 years. That doesn't speak to the original goal of continued P-A-B union, but it does speak to a question of how to best minimize loss of life/better future overall for both countries. Might have been much better to simply send Miguel back, let him be the Portuguese pawn, and put the strength into Brazil. IF (a big IF) Joao/Pedro could reletively bloodlessly declared Brazilian independence, they have the international right to leadership, they have the funds Joao took back with him. Heck, even have Joao, instead of usurping Miguel's revolution, give in to it in '23 and travel back to Brazil. They would probably keep Angola at least, which doesn't disrupt that trade. Britain doesn't get to interrupt the slave trade/cause bitterness there, so once again Brazil is not interrupted economically. You might even transfer Portuguese naval power to Brazil. Looks could be deceiving, and Argentina might not be so bold in starting the cisplatine war. Pedro gets to mature a little before taking power. The rightful crown/stability in Brazil may dampen some of the revolutions. It's a complete different question, but I always come up with the same pondering: might it have been better for the Portuguese crown to discard Portugal?

 

[miguelrj]

It's a complete different question, but I always come up with the same pondering: might it have been better for the Portuguese crown to discard Portugal?

The advantage in discarding Portugal is not to have a civil war. If the Braganzas retreat from Mainland Portugal but retain loyalty elsewhere, the Authority that kicked'em out (or otherwise led them to flee) of Portugal will not give up control of the colonies so easily...

 

[unprincipled peter]

If the Braganza's stay in Brazil, the usurpers are the Portuguese. The rightful crown belongs to Joao. Britain would recognize republican Portugal in a heartbeat, but the legitimacy remains with the crown.

Civil war? Pedro broke free quite easily. Why wouldn't the crown? The reality is that Portugal does not have the military means to retain a revolting Brazil. There's only one factor: Joao took the military and navy with him when he returned to Portugal OTL. If Joao (staying in Brazil) retains the allegiance of the military/navy, there isn't a darn thing Portugal can do. If he stays and the military follows the Cortes, he's sunk. republicans take over in Portugal. Or he can leave, and Pedro can take over. Or he can stay, get overthrown by republicans in Portugal(if he doesn't have the fortitude to declare/maintain independence), and then Brazil ultimately goes independent because they're no longer going to take orders from Portugal. Under no scenario does Brazil return to colonial status. That's a pipe dream of the Portuguese. Your tag says you're portuguese, and I don't mean disrespect, but in OTL, or ATL, Brazil holds the winning hand most of the time. It's why Pedro had such an easy time winning independence.

There are a couple of civil wars: one (or several) in Brazil. one in Portugal. Brazil can maybe be pacified a little easier. Portugal is a tougher call. Miguel and the conservatives battled Pedro and the liberals OTL. All scenarios OTL have the two of them as the leaders. What happens to that war if one or the other doesn't show up to the fight? If Pedro stays in Brazil, does Miguel and the conservatives stay on top without much of a fight? If Pedro ends up in Brazil earlier, does that mean the conservatives cower and give up without a fight? Or doesn't it matter at all if there's a Miguel or a Pedro, there's still going to be a clash?

I can see a lot of easier roads for Brazil. Brazil only needs a stronger leader, or a bit more legitimacy of the crown to stay the course. It really can't go much worse than OTL for the Braganza's up to Pedro II ascending the throne (ok, could go worse, but lots of avenues for it to go better). Portugal still has to settle whether it is liberal or conservative. The liberals need Pedro. Conservatives may not need Miguel, and since he lost, may have been better off without him.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

Very interesting stuff. And I'm glad to have gotten so many responses. I do have a couple of comments and questions. First, if Pedro is sent back to Portugal, would he really be the Cortes bitch or no? I mean OTL their was a major attempt to revoke the constitution by the Nobles and Church within a couple of years, which led to Dom Miguel's exile to Vienna. So couldn't Pedro organize a counter to the Liberal revolution? Or at least give the crown some of its powers back? Also, to keep Pedro from going to far, couldn't Dom Joao keep his wife and children in Brazil, officially for their protection but really as a guarantee? Second, why not send an army back with Pedro or Joao for that matter? I have a feeling that the bulk of the Portuguese Army would have been in Brazil by that point so why not send loyal troops ahead to restore control before the Royal family returns home? Personally I think it would have been better to send a royal representative back to Lisbon earlier, like in 1815 to 1817? Perhaps Pedro returns to marry Maria Leopoldina and and becomes Regent of Portugal, with many, accompanied by loyal and knowledgeable advisers, of course. That way the people don't summon the Cortes themselves. Or hell have Joao wait to leave until the Brazilian representatives are elected and ready to depart. That way the Portuguese aren't able to cut them out of the debates and decisions. Truthfully the whole situation was handled badly, from Joao to Pedro and everything and everyone in between.

Oh and I agree that it would be interesting to see a surviving Infante Dom Francisco, but I would have liked to have seen Dom Joao's older brother, Dom Jose, survive instead. Does anyone know what his, Dom Jose's, views were like? I can't seem to find any relavent info, on either the English or Portuguese wikipedias.

 

[unprincipled peter]

or, another way of saying it, is that Portugal never really had control of Brazil after '16.

The civil war averted is not between portugal and brazil, but rather the various factions of Brazil that sought control within Brazil. More legitimacy of the crown in Brazil may have averted some of that civil war.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

OK maybe I'm slow here but if Portugal was to declare itself a republic in around 1820-22 why would this stick? I mean first of all this is during the most reactionary time in Europe. There's no way the Great powers would tolerate a Republic, especially one created by revolution. When France intervenes in Spain they would just keep going to Portugal. Also, if the army and navy is on Brazil, then wouldn't it stand to reason that Dom Joao would just send it back to Portugal to put down the revolt? And if ether happens, then the Portuguese idea that they run the empire would be completly shattered and the balance of power over their empire would completely shift to Brazil, with the Portuguese worst fear of being subjugated to their former colony being completely realized.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Emperor:

Pedro was a liberal (not liberal enough for the americas, but much more a liberal than any other Braganza). He would have been perfect for returning to Portugal in '21 and championing the liberal cause. However, the conservative cause was beginning a backlash about that time. Queen Carlotta, about the worst queen a country can ever have, hating the king, plotting for Spain, and her toady, prince Miguel, were die hard conservatives. They were going to recapture Portugal from the virtual prisoner King Joao VI (also a die hard conservative) who was rubber stamping everything the liberal Cortes was putting out. Joao, in one of his moments of glory, takes over the movement from Miguel, and regains control of Portugal. Had Pedro gone back to Portugal, and Joao remained in Brazil, Pedro probably would have the backing of half the country, including the half that was in charge at the time.

The military situation: Again, apologies to Miguel, who is from Portugal, but the Portuguese army was rather disfunctional. One of the causes of the Porto uprising was that the British were in charge of the Portuguese army. Indeed, the British were pretty much in charge of everything in Portugal, which was one of the reasons the Crown remained in Brazil. the uprising in Portugal in '20 was just as much against the British as it was against the Crown. The view from here says maybe Joao would have been better served returning home to reclaim Portugal from Britain instead of thinking life was grand in Brazil. Anyhow, the glorious Portuguese army was having a tough time of it in modern day Uruguay, and really only winning because they could provide small arms while the Argentines/Uruguayians couldn't. I really wouldn't count much on the Portuguese army for much of anything at that point. But in Portugal, Britain had decided to just beat feet and let the Portuguese sort it out. They had nothing more to gain by having boots on the ground, and now the liberal Portuguese army was in control.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Emperor:
apologies for the cross postings.

Why would Portugal go republican? the center of Portugal had two places to go: Portugal, or Brazil. Britain, didn't really care which one took precedence, as long as neither was strong. Thus, the conventional wisdom was that Joao, in moving to Brazil, could either keep Brazil and lose Portugal to a British dependancy, or keep Portugal (or risk losing it to the French, while losing brazil to the Brits) and lose Brazil. Joao chose to keep Brazil, and then hope to reclaim Portugal. Good move, except that he decided to stay in Brazil instead of reclaiming Portugal until events forced his hand. Anyhow, the liberals uprise in '20. The Brits basically bug out, coz this isn't their civil war, they've got the economic upper hand in both countries, and they aren't bleeding for a mucked up situation. Liberals are now in control. They say, either come home, or lose your crown. Military in Portugal is liberal based. I guess it was a little much to say the republicans would take the country, but it was either an alternate king or a republic that would have ruled Portugal if Joao and Pedro and the rest of the family stayed in Brazil. Whether Joao/Pedro could have stayed in control in Brazil in that case is an open question.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

Emperor:

Pedro was a liberal (not liberal enough for the americas, but much more a liberal than any other Braganza). He would have been perfect for returning to Portugal in '21 and championing the liberal cause. However, the conservative cause was beginning a backlash about that time. Queen Carlotta, about the worst queen a country can ever have, hating the king, plotting for Spain, and her toady, prince Miguel, were die hard conservatives. They were going to recapture Portugal from the virtual prisoner King Joao VI (also a die hard conservative) who was rubber stamping everything the liberal Cortes was putting out. Joao, in one of his moments of glory, takes over the movement from Miguel, and regains control of Portugal. Had Pedro gone back to Portugal, and Joao remained in Brazil, Pedro probably would have the backing of half the country, including the half that was in charge at the time.

The military situation: Again, apologies to Miguel, who is from Portugal, but the Portuguese army was rather disfunctional. One of the causes of the Porto uprising was that the British were in charge of the Portuguese army. Indeed, the British were pretty much in charge of everything in Portugal, which was one of the reasons the Crown remained in Brazil. the uprising in Portugal in '20 was just as much against the British as it was against the Crown. The view from here says maybe Joao would have been better served returning home to reclaim Portugal from Britain instead of thinking life was grand in Brazil. Anyhow, the glorious Portuguese army was having a tough time of it in modern day Uruguay, and really only winning because they could provide small arms while the Argentines/Uruguayians couldn't. I really wouldn't count much on the Portuguese army for much of anything at that point. But in Portugal, Britain had decided to just beat feet and let the Portuguese sort it out. They had nothing more to gain by having boots on the ground, and now the liberal Portuguese army was in control.

First thank you for such a detailed response. Second, I didn't realize that the Portuguese army was in such a bad shape. For some reason I thought that the army that went to Brazil would have been the better units and would have been able to beat the Revolutionary army. You would think that Britain would have sent some troops sense they caused the problem in the first place. After researching a bit I found out that the government in Portugal before the Revolution was completely headed by British officers. Would appointing a native government/sending ministers from Brazil help or hinder the situation? Or would it cause tension between Britain and Portugal? Also, any thoughts to my comment about the Holy Alliance and a Republic of Portugal? I also had a thought. Would leaving Dom Miguel in charge of Brazil instead of Pedro be better or worse? I mean he was very Absolutist so would we see anything similar to OTL, would Brazil become a Republic or something completely different?

 

[unprincipled peter]

keep in mind that an alternate, legitimate king might have been tough going. All the legitimate heirs were in Brazil, and there really weren't any pretenders to the throne. That hasn't stopped European powers from creating a new divine right to the throne, but it would be an impediment. Just accepting a republic might be a good alternative.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

keep in mind that an alternate, legitimate king might have been tough going. All the legitimate heirs were in Brazil, and there really weren't any pretenders to the throne. That hasn't stopped European powers from creating a new divine right to the throne, but it would be an impediment. Just accepting a republic might be a good alternative.

My point was that the Holy Alliance didn't accept a Constitutional Monarchy in Spain so would they accept a Republic in Portugal?

 

[unprincipled peter]

more cross postings!

no Brazilian is going to be acceptable to the Portuguese back at the mother land.

Portugal was in an extreme state of denial that they could put the genie back in the bottle. Understandable, since the balance of power was on the line, but still rather unrealistic.

In Brazil, a point of contention was that Brazilian troops were commanded by Portuguese officers. Quite similar to the Portuguese problem of P troops commanded by British officers. So, sending Brazilian troops and/or officers is not going to be well received in Portugal.

Role of the Brits: Lots of us are descendants of the Brits and/or the British empire. The US (my home country) had kicked them out by 1820, and my ancestors were still toiling in germany, so I really don't have a dog in the chase, but....the Brits were (putting it delicately) not friends to a lot of people. They used and abused the Portuguese and the Brazilians for all they were worth for as long as they could. They had no interest in setting things right, and plenty in setting them wrong so that they could continue economic hegemony over them.

 

[unprincipled peter]

I'm a bit clueless as to the holy alliance and acceptance of a constitutional monarchy in Spain. However, a constitutional monarchy in Portugal was accepted. Can't say if it was the first constitution of '22/23 or the revised one a year later. England accepted it by brokering a treaty between Portugal/Brazil in '24/25 and once they recognize a country, it's a done deal.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

I'm a bit clueless as to the holy alliance and acceptance of a constitutional monarchy in Spain. However, a constitutional monarchy in Portugal was accepted. Can't say if it was the first constitution of '22/23 or the revised one a year later. England accepted it by brokering a treaty between Portugal/Brazil in '24/25 and once they recognize a country, it's a done deal.

I think England had more of a say in Portugal then in Spain. Plus Fernando VII requested aid from the Alliance but IDK if Joao did the same. If he did so I can definitely see an intervention by either France, Spain or even Austria. If the rest of the alliance is for intervention then England would probably back down. No need to piss of all of Europe over a constitution in a country that's not even theirs.

 

[miguelrj]

Civil war? Pedro broke free quite easily. Why wouldn't the crown?

The mentioned hypothetical Civil War was if the Braganzas still ruled the whole empire from Brazil treating Portugal as a colony. That would definitely spark revolution/war that the Braganzas need to deal with.

You posed afterwards a different scenario: the Braganzas deliberately discarding Portugal. I can see the Braganzas keeping an empire from Brazil without Portugal if they're kicked out of Portugal (albeit that Portugal would at least claim authority over the whole empire). I cannot see the Braganzas deliberately dropping the most populous slice of its empire.

Your tag says you're portuguese, and I don't mean disrespect, but in OTL, or ATL, Brazil holds the winning hand most of the time.

That is the truth. Even if it wasn't it wouldn't hurt my sensibilities, worry not.

if Pedro is sent back to Portugal, would he really be the Cortes bitch or no?

In 1822, yes. In 1820, he'd arrange it so that it'd be the other way around.

I mean OTL their was a major attempt to revoke the constitution by the Nobles and Church within a couple of years, which led to Dom Miguel's exile to Vienna.

Miguel took advantage of the Cortes fragility over their inability to counter Brazilian independence plus the effect of the ongoing invasion of neighboring Spain by conservative forces. In a scenario where Pedro comes back in 1822 the Cortes are victorious and Pedro comes back under heavy vigilance.

Also, to keep Pedro from going to far, couldn't Dom Joao keep his wife and children in Brazil, officially for their protection but really as a guarantee?

João is not the character to make his own grandchildren hostages.

Second, why not send an army back with Pedro or Joao for that matter? I have a feeling that the bulk of the Portuguese Army would have been in Brazil by that point so why not send loyal troops ahead to restore control before the Royal family returns home?

In 1820? The liberal revolution was felt among the army in Brazil too. At this point the best way to diffuse this is behind the scenes rather than on the battlefield.

Personally I think it would have been better to send a royal representative back to Lisbon earlier, like in 1815 to 1817?

As do I.

Truthfully the whole situation was handled badly, from Joao to Pedro and everything and everyone in between.

João's laissez-faire contributed to a relatively bloodless reign given the circumstances (mind his sons' bloody quarrels later on). But it's still incomprehensible to me why he didn't ship teen Pedro to at least nominally preside over the regency in Portugal early on. This should have happened from the moment Napoleon was neutralized (when there were no more excuses for the exile) in 1814/15 or at the very least after the liberal coup attempt of 1817 which raised a red flag!!
Once they let themselves be overtaken by events, and once Pedro remains in Brazil and develops a sour relationship with the Lisbon Cortes, I maintain that Pedro did the best he could and should under these circumstances, resulting in a almost bloodless break of the union that it'd be hard to keep anyway and he did it on his own terms. He could have avoided finding himself in that position though.

My point was that the Holy Alliance didn't accept a Constitutional Monarchy in Spain so would they accept a Republic in Portugal?

Everyone in Europe - even the Brits - will indeed be appalled by a revolutionary republic in Europe. The safest move for an anti-Braganza Portugal is to elect some other prince as their king. The Brits would prefer to puppetize Portugal as a monarchy.

Plus Fernando VII requested aid from the Alliance but IDK if Joao did the same..

He didn't. Miguel did (or hoped to formally do).

 

[unprincipled peter]

Joao should have returned to Portugal in '16/17/18/19. That he didn't is one of the prime reasons the fiasco unfolded as it did. It may have still gone wrong, but just not the way it did.

The problem with sending the crown prince back is two-fold: one he's inexperienced and not really held in much respect. Expecting him to return and take charge at that point is a bit unrealistic. Two, you make the situation ripe for some faction manipulating him into overthrowing Joao, the same way they attempted to do with Miguel in '23. I fully expect he'd be king within a year or two of returning. Plus, if the crown prince can return, there's really no reason, from the Portuguese point of view, that the King couldn't, and the king not returning only accelerates the idea of Brazilian dominance, which in turn accelerates the Portuguese saying the heck with that, which really is only fleshing out point two.

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

Isn't there a relative that could serve as governor? At least until there is a plausible way which the King would devote his time to each part of the new United Kingdom?

 

[Emperor Constantine]

Isn't there a relative that could serve as governor? At least until there is a plausible way which the King would devote his time to each part of the new United Kingdom?

Perhaps Infanta Dona Maria Theresa, Joao VI's eldest daughter would fit the bill. she was very conservative and later sided with Miguel during the Liberal wars but she was one of Joao's closest advisers and the only one of Joao's children to be admitted to the Portuguese Privy Council so she was politically experienced and the fact that she was a woman might discourage those who opposed her father from making her Monarch, though she already has a son, Infante Sebastian of Portugal and Spain, so maybe not.

 

[miguelrj]

Joao should have returned to Portugal in '16/17/18/19. That he didn't is one of the prime reasons the fiasco unfolded as it did. It may have still gone wrong, but just not the way it did.

The problem with sending the crown prince back is two-fold: one he's inexperienced and not really held in much respect. Expecting him to return and take charge at that point is a bit unrealistic. Two, you make the situation ripe for some faction manipulating him into overthrowing Joao, the same way they attempted to do with Miguel in '23. I fully expect he'd be king within a year or two of returning. Plus, if the crown prince can return, there's really no reason, from the Portuguese point of view, that the King couldn't, and the king not returning only accelerates the idea of Brazilian dominance, which in turn accelerates the Portuguese saying the heck with that, which really is only fleshing out point two.

If Pedro goes in 1814-15 he's only a nominal regent. If he goes in 1817, aged 18-19, he'll be young but definitely not a kid. Given his personality he'll try to take the helm and would hardly be puppetized.
Certainly, the king going to Portugal is the best option to stabilize Portugal, not sure how to hold "recently-dechained-and-awakened-but-now-downgraded-again Brazil" though. Sending the Prince seemed more in character out of the sheer comodism of João.

 

[unprincipled peter]

My thinking is that if Joao returns in 1818 or 1817, leaving behind Pedro as regent in Brazil, Portugal doesn't degenerate into the crisis of 20/21. Without that crisis, life doesn't look bleak for Pedro/Brazil getting rechained. Pedro doesn't agitate for independence. The union remains. What happens down the road is a good question. It's possible that a Joao in control in Portugal sets up the situation so that a crown presence is always in both countries.

The immediate crisis of '20-'23 - Joao losing control for a couple years, and Pedro agitating for independence- has it's firm roots in a lack of crown presence in Portugal in the post penninsular war years (that's over simplifying the political situation, but Joao remaining in Brazil was bad for the situation). Any attempt to maintain union must revolve around eliminating the crisis, and, IMO, the easiest thing to do is to figure out how to prevent it from happening in the first place.

Anyhow, nice chat. These Iberian threads rarely go anywhere. Most Alt Historians are more focused on discussing for the millionth time how to have Germany win WW1 or having the confederacy winning Gettysburg!