AHC: Save Protestant Bohemia

For France to get involved directly, you need to change a lot of events there. Remember that there is a major Huguenot rebellion in the 1620s OTL which occupied the government’s attention.

OTL Henri IV was assassinated when his son was only nine years old. Louis XIII came under the influence of the regent, his very Catholic mother, Marie de Médici. Louis grew up in a court that was very hostile to Protestants and, due to being born in 1601, he had no memory of the Wars of Religion. He tried to implement the Edict of Nantes in a rigid fashion that alienated his Huguenot subjects and ended up spending a decade fighting them.

If Henri IV lives longer, perhaps he can influence Louis more in the direction of moderation and tolerance at home, allowing him to keep the peace and thus be free to act abroad.
 
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So reading about the Election or Archduke Ferdinand as King of Bohemia in 1617, it seems that it was pretty clear from the beginning that he was going to be a problem for the Protestants and Constitutionalists, and that he only really won the election due to there not being any real alternatives put forward.

Yes, and it looks like he was itching for making a trouble.

So what if there had been? On the one hand, maybe the Protestants can get their act together, or maybe even just get someone (like the Elector of Saxony) to show some interest. Alternatively, maybe the Hapsburgs as a whole (who, particularly the Spanish, knew that Ferdinand was going to be an issue) find someone else to put forward; one possible candidate that sticks out for me is Ferdinand’s nephew by his older sister (and OTL later son-in-law, because Hapsburg) Wladslaw of Poland.

IIRC, the Estates of Bohemia had been acting as a literary personage who "jumped on his horse and rode in all directions" :winkytongue:
They made overtures both to Elector of Saxony and to Elector Palatinate and when Elector of Saxony learned about this he was opposite to happy (and understandably not eager to come to their help when the war started). IIRC, Frederic was elected in expectation of the massive English/Scottish help which materialized in a form of few volunteer regiments which arrived too late, only on a stage of the Palatinate Campaign after Bohemia was lost.

As for the other side, I suspect that either nobody considered the seemingly obvious consequences or that Ferdinand was not too eager to give away the juicy piece like Bohemia.

Anyway, it does not look like anybody on both sides could foresee a scope of the coming mess. OTOH, why would any of them be excessively bothered? Even if a country (no matter which one) was going to be looted and devastated by a war, it does not mean that its ruler is going to starve.
 
@alexmilman Even if the Bohemian Revolt and its suppression is averted, a larger war was coming to Europe, with the Spanish-Dutch Truce set to expire in 1621 (or at least so says CV Wedgewood).

What I’m wondering is, first what are the longer term prospects for Bohemia as a result of this (specifically its Protestant majority)? And second, if the OP is met, how does it affect the coming war in Europe?
 
@alexmilman Even if the Bohemian Revolt and its suppression is averted, a larger war was coming to Europe, with the Spanish-Dutch Truce set to expire in 1621 (or at least so says CV Wedgewood).

What I’m wondering is, first what are the longer term prospects for Bohemia as a result of this (specifically its Protestant majority)? And second, if the OP is met, how does it affect the coming war in Europe?

I wish I knew the answers but if we assume that Bohemia accepts Ferdinand without protest than at least initially the coming Spanish-Dutch conflict may be localized. The Spanish Road is not passing through the Protestant territories of the HRE and I’m not sure that there would a realistic force capable to attack it from the Palatinate.

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OTOH, with Ferdinand on the HRE throne, the issue of the Protestant/Catholic relations are not going away and it is probably safe to assume that he is going to push his OTL policies (which, as I understand, were in a violation of the status quo) both in his lands, including Bohemia, and in HRE in general. Anyway, the existing agreements applied only to the Lutherans but not to the Calvinists.

I’d assume that Bohemia would rebel if the local Protestants are pushed too hard and the same goes for the Protestant princes of the HRE. However, if the events are postponed beyond the expired Spanish-Dutch armistice, Spanish ruler of the Netherlands would be hard pressed to send massive reinforcements from Belgium (which pretty much saved the day in OTL) and the Protestant side is better off, initially. A lot would depend on the quality of their leadership at that time. As I understand, on the Bohemian & Palatinate stages of the war it was lousy in all aspects (and IIRC the Bohemian Estates refused to finance the army).

Now, if Bohemia ends up as an independent Protestant power then access of the imperial troops to the Northern Germany is getting more difficult and Hapsburg control of Moravia and Silesia is endangered so either the imperial forces are keep attacking Bohemia or they are concentrated on defense of Moravia and Silesia instead of trying to establish control over the North. Or, if the Protestant side manages to get its act together on the early stages of the conflict (and there is no Wallenstein-like figure in the terms of administrative and strategic abilities on the imperial side) then the Catholics could be on a defensive for quite a while. As you understand, specifics of the military operations in AH can be speculated upon with a complete impunity. :)


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but if we assume that Bohemia accepts Ferdinand without protest...
Hold up, do you mean as King of Bohemia or Holy Roman Emperor? Because they did the former at first OTL, only for the Archduke to behave as expected, and then things spiral out of control due to the Electors not feeling able to trust him. Now, if some other Hapsburg became King of Bohemia, with the understanding that they would support Ferdinand as Emperor when Mathias dies, that would be another thing; then again, how much of his OTL policies can he push only as Emperor, with say his nephew taking a more conciliatory approach domestically?
Now, if Bohemia ends up as an independent Protestant power then access of the imperial troops to the Northern Germany is getting more difficult and Hapsburg control of Moravia and Silesia is endangered so either the imperial forces are keep attacking Bohemia or they are concentrated on defense of Moravia and Silesia instead of trying to establish control over the North. Or, if the Protestant side manages to get its act together on the early stages of the conflict (and there is no Wallenstein-like figure in the terms of administrative and strategic abilities on the imperial side) then the Catholics could be on a defensive for quite a while. As you understand, specifics of the military operations in AH can be speculated upon with a complete impunity. :)
Now this could also get quite interesting...
 
Hold up, do you mean as King of Bohemia or Holy Roman Emperor? Because they did the former at first OTL, only for the Archduke to behave as expected, and then things spiral out of control due to the Electors not feeling able to trust him. Now, if some other Hapsburg became King of Bohemia, with the understanding that they would support Ferdinand as Emperor when Mathias dies, that would be another thing; then again, how much of his OTL policies can he push only as Emperor, with say his nephew taking a more conciliatory approach domestically?

Now this could also get quite interesting...
Well, in OTL none of the Hapsburgs pushed Ferdinand aside as an alternative King of Bohemia. However, as far as I can tell, initially the Protestants of Bohemia kind of took him for granted and in 1617 voted with the Catholics to make him a heir to the throne. Only when he sent two Catholics to govern the country in his absence the Protestants threw them out of the window and started revolt. Even this, seemingly easy to arrange action, was demonstration of a gross incompetence which would be plaguing the whole revolt: instead of arranging for a presence of a mob with the pikes under the window (as was done during the 1st defenestration) they threw them into a pile of a manure which was, admittedly, humiliating, but did not carry the right message.

As for the “domestic approach”, it seems that the most flexible participant on the Catholic side was Spain: its ambassador negotiated Saxon participation on the Catholic side by giving them Lusatia (and as a reward for its help Spain got Palatinate and Alsace to secure the Spanish Road).

As far as the military speculations are involved you would need your independent Bohemia to survive between 1620 and at least 1625 (on OTL schedule this would be Danish entry into the war). For this the rebels would need to be much more successful than in OTL. Let’s say that the promised Ottoman help of 60,000 cavalry did materialize in time (and the Ottomans are completely successful against the Poles in 1620 - 21) and the Protestant rebellions in the Hapsburg hereditary lands are much more successful and are not subdued on OTL schedule and Thurn, Mansfield and Duke of Brunswick are much greater generals then their OTL prototypes (and have more money to pay their troops) and when the Low Saxon War (Danish intervention) happens Ferdinand can not find a figure capable to organize and maintain an army (Ferdinand was out of funds), then the whole entertainment can continue without Bohemia being conquered. It still would be invaded more than once but at these times it would not be too critical. Danish initial success means that the Northern HRE is lost to the emperor. When Christian IV is eventually defeated by Tilly (even with Wallenstein it took 5 years and it does not look like Tilly had any idea what to do with the big armies) it is time for Sweden to invade and Bohemia is saved because everybody is too busy.
 
Another late potential PoD - in 1619, just after his election as Holy Roman Emperor, word had arrived that the Bohemian Estates had deposed Ferdinand, and were now offering the crown to Frederick IV of the Palantine. The young Elector had actually strongly considered declining the offer, with most of his advice being opposed; he ultimately accepted, pretty much on purely moral grounds of not wanting to abandon the Bohemians to their fate. Meanwhile, Maximillian of Bavaria, Ferdinand’s cousin and son in law (because Hapsburgs) had actually been trying to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the crisis, in large measure seeking to protect the German Constitution; when Frederick accepted the crown, these plans fell apart, and Maximillian threw his support behind Ferdinand (in no small measure in an attempt to keep Spain out of the conflict).

So what if Frederick had declined the Bohemian Crown? Or perhaps more specifically, what if - perhaps due to both of them deciding to attend the gathering in Frankfurt - these two Electors happened to get themselves into a room together, find out where the other stands, and maybe even come to an understanding? Say, for example, having the Bohemians offer the throne to Maximillian as a compromise candidate?
 
The point is who for many, including Ferdinand himself, the Bohemian Estates had the power to elect the King or future King but not the one of deposing him. Frederick not accepting the Bohemian Crown would be a start for preventing the worst, but in truth keeping Ferdinand away from inheriting Bohemia (and so everything else) would be much better... Maybe Matthias or Albert had a son?
 
perhaps more specifically, what if - perhaps due to both of them deciding to attend the gathering in Frankfurt - these two Electors happened to get themselves into a room together, find out where the other stands, and maybe even come to an understanding?

In 1619 Maximilian isn't an elector. He only GOT the electorate because of Friedrich's treason. (In 1625 I think it was).

I'm not sure whether Max would've HAD the ability to make inroads with Friedrich anyway. The Pfalz and Bavarian Wittelsbachs were generally at sixes and sevens IIRC. So despite Max being 20 years older, Friedrich might dismiss his cousin's advice as too pro-Catholic (Max wasn't a blind follower of the Habsburgs) or simply suspect that Max is aiming higher for himself (and his branch of the family).
 
Another late potential PoD - in 1619, just after his election as Holy Roman Emperor, word had arrived that the Bohemian Estates had deposed Ferdinand, and were now offering the crown to Frederick IV of the Palantine. The young Elector had actually strongly considered declining the offer, with most of his advice being opposed; he ultimately accepted, pretty much on purely moral grounds of not wanting to abandon the Bohemians to their fate. Meanwhile, Maximillian of Bavaria, Ferdinand’s cousin and son in law (because Hapsburgs) had actually been trying to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the crisis, in large measure seeking to protect the German Constitution; when Frederick accepted the crown, these plans fell apart, and Maximillian threw his support behind Ferdinand (in no small measure in an attempt to keep Spain out of the conflict).

So what if Frederick had declined the Bohemian Crown? Or perhaps more specifically, what if - perhaps due to both of them deciding to attend the gathering in Frankfurt - these two Electors happened to get themselves into a room together, find out where the other stands, and maybe even come to an understanding? Say, for example, having the Bohemians offer the throne to Maximillian as a compromise candidate?
Frederick was not the only possible candidate so the Bohemians would get another Protestant as a king and the main difference would be in his ability to handle issues (primary the military ones) better than Frederick. IIRC, Elector of Saxony and Prince of Transylvania had been on the list. Any of them had a greater military power than Frederick so you can think about the relevant scenarios.
 
In 1619 Maximilian isn't an elector. He only GOT the electorate because of Friedrich's treason. (In 1625 I think it was).
Oh yeah; I didn't realize that the Duke of Bavaria wasn't an Elector until 1623. (That just seemed so counterintuitive, seeing how populous Bavaria generally is.)
Frederick was not the only possible candidate so the Bohemians would get another Protestant as a king and the main difference would be in his ability to handle issues (primary the military ones) better than Frederick. IIRC, Elector of Saxony and Prince of Transylvania had been on the list. Any of them had a greater military power than Frederick so you can think about the relevant scenarios.
They also had the very important distinction of not being the Dukes of the Palantine, meaning they weren't super crucial geographically to the the defense of the Netherlands and France. The Elector of Saxony (at least to hear CV Wedgwood tell it) would likely not have accepted the crown if it was offered to him, but it would have at least meant that he didn't feel insulted by the slight of having it offered to someone else first, and at the very least that he would offer his services as guaranteer of Bohemian liberties in the negotiations.
 
Oh yeah; I didn't realize that the Duke of Bavaria wasn't an Elector until 1623. (That just seemed so counterintuitive, seeing how populous Bavaria generally is.)

They also had the very important distinction of not being the Dukes of the Palantine, meaning they weren't super crucial geographically to the the defense of the Netherlands and France. The Elector of Saxony (at least to hear CV Wedgwood tell it) would likely not have accepted the crown if it was offered to him, but it would have at least meant that he didn't feel insulted by the slight of having it offered to someone else first, and at the very least that he would offer his services as guaranteer of Bohemian liberties in the negotiations.

Which still leaves us with the initial dilemma: how to avoid OTL if Ferdinand is seemingly the only Catholic (and legitimate) pretender and so far you are excluding all Protestant candidates? I’m running out of options. :)

We have either a delayed uprising or some powerful outsider, like Prince of Transylvania, invited to play alt-Frederick. Whatever Elector of Saxony could offer as a guarantee would not be worthy of a paper on which it is written because he was not powerful enough to interfere into what is going to be Ferdinand’s with his subjects.
 
Oh yeah; I didn't realize that the Duke of Bavaria wasn't an Elector until 1623. (That just seemed so counterintuitive, seeing how populous Bavaria generally is.)

It's actually for good reason. At the time the Golden Bull was published, the Luxemburg emperor wished to prevent anybody from a rival house (that meant the Habsburgs and the Bavarian Wittelsbachs) from getting a vote in who got to be emperor. Bavaria sort of circumvented this after the Reformation by making sure that someone from their family got the electorate-archbishopric of Cologne.

And they were counts palatine not dukes.
 
So @alexmilman gave some great stuff on this already, but if we could revisit it - Bohemia aside, what happens in the wider European conflict if, by spring of 1621, there are no Spanish troops on the Palantine? FWIG, no Spanish Road means the Dutch start off the conflict in a very strong position vis a vis Flanders, and none of the Protestant princes jumping the gun means that they’re more unified if Ferdinand tries anything in the larger empire.

Given this kind of context, what are the chances of the coming conflict Hapsburg v Bourbon & Protestant War being considerably shorter and less destructive? How successful could efforts be at keeping foreign armies out of any conflict in Germany during this time? And depending on these big questions, how is the history of Europe altered?
 
So @alexmilman gave some great stuff on this already, but if we could revisit it - Bohemia aside, what happens in the wider European conflict if, by spring of 1621, there are no Spanish troops on the Palantine? FWIG, no Spanish Road means the Dutch start off the conflict in a very strong position vis a vis Flanders, and none of the Protestant princes jumping the gun means that they’re more unified if Ferdinand tries anything in the larger empire.

Given this kind of context, what are the chances of the coming conflict Hapsburg v Bourbon & Protestant War being considerably shorter and less destructive? How successful could efforts be at keeping foreign armies out of any conflict in Germany during this time? And depending on these big questions, how is the history of Europe altered?

Strictly speaking, Spain did not need Palatinate for security of the Spanish Road: it needed secure Lorraine - Alsace. And, as far as I can tell, there were enough Spanish troops in Flanders before the 30YW started: these troops basically decided an outcome of the 1st stage of a war.
So if these troops are not in Palatinate in 1621, they are in Flanders. I don’t see who and how is going to close the Spanish Road even with Palatinate being Protestant.

As for the Protestant princes, they were not (AFAIK) really unified even when Ferdinand started getting nasty after reconquering Bohemia. It seems that the only issue which got most of them (both Protestants and Catholics) unified was demand to sack Wallenstein. The main Protestant princes failed to create anything equal to the army of Catholic League. Saxony was changing sides more than once and it’s top general, von Arnim changed sides even more often. The most prominent military figures were condotierry-type adventurers like Mansfield or Bernhardt of Weimar, not the princes raising troops off their lands.

As far as Hapsburg vs. Burbon, the French issues with the Austrian Hapsburgs were more or less limited to those related to the Mantuan War and as far as the Spanish branch was involved, the main problems for France were an absence of an adequate army and a lot of internal problems (need to deal with the Huguenots). Even after Richelieu came to power, he was trying for years to resolve the military issues by subsidizing foreign armies rather than by creating a national one. Only when it became absolutely clear that the foreigners will take the money and proceed with pursuing their own goals he started spending money on the French military and, as you understand, creation of a powerful army takes considerable time.

So, short of an early convincing imperial victory followed by a reasonable religious policy (fat chance), the war would be a long affair with a lot of a foreign interventions. Then again, what is foreign intervention? Denmark formally interfered as a HRE entity, Duchy of Holstein.
 
@alexmilman What then would you say is the most we can plausibly do to curb the destruction of the war to come, and what’s the best way of doing it?

I'm afraid that you are asking too much of me (of course, I'm flattered :happyblush). How can one predict with any reliability something in a situation so complex?

We can probably guess about some ...er... "critical points" which may (or may not) make the whole thing shorter if everything is going differently:

1. The "Bohemian period" goes well for the Protestant side, which would most probably require combination of (a) serious direct Ottoman help and (b) much more efficient Transilvanian involvement and (c) much more talented (and popular) Protestant leadership and (d) by whatever reasons an absence of the Spanish help. As an option, the Dutch are breaking the peace and (with a timely help of the English and Scottish volunteers) start an early offensive against the Flanders. One way or another, Spain does not have troops and money to spare to help Austrian Hapsburgs. Bohemia is lost and nothing is to be done about it except for a possible reshuffling of the electorate.

2. After Bohemian and Palatinate Wars Ferdinand is an embodiment of a religious tolerance and political flexibility (and I can sell you Brooklyn Bridge really cheap ....). The whole thing can be treated more or less as an unsuccessful revolt against a legitimate sovereign (nobody can approve such a thing) and the things are back to the Augsburg Peace. Calvinists are unhappy but that's their problem. Ideally, Ferdinand (after being hit on a head with a really big meteorite) expands existing treaties to the Calvinists in exchange to everybody's agreement regarding future succession.

3. After Denmark is beaten, Ferdinand (again, after suffering a severe mental shock, which in his case could produce only positive results) leaves Wallenstein in his position. With the 100K soldiers stationed over a big part of the HRE and a person who (one of all clowns involved) seemingly has some "imperial" thinking, the electors are getting some ...er... "spiritual experience" (or whatever) when it comes to the issue of succession. Posting more troops are posted on their territories (and levying more taxes to support them has to be paid) proves to be quite educational and even the dumbest among the princes are capable of figuring out for whom they should vote. Probably, with 100K still being efficiently handled Swedish invasion may not happened (IIRC, after W's dismissal Tilly was in charge and to a great degree existing army disappeared all the way to people going to the Swedish service when GA landed). Or, if it does, GA may be contained in the Northern Germany.

4. France has army earlier. Louis XIII inherits an army from his father (who in OTL disbanded most of what was there) and keeps building it up even prior to Richelieu's accession. In OTL, he inherited an army of 14,000 (in theory the number could increase up to 50K) with up to 50 cannons. Louis XIII increased it up to 28,000 but the 1st massive recruitment happened only in 1636 when there was a danger of the Spanish invasion. In 1638 French army had 36 national regiments and 25 foreign regiments (each up to 2,000 strong) and in 1640 Richelieu was bragging about having 150,000 infantry and 30,000 cavalry (presumably, the real numbers were 2 times smaller but even with such an allowance it was an impressive force). In 1667 (Louis XIV, War of the Devolution) France had 60 infantry regiments (including 14 foreign) and 34 cavalry regiments (including 8 foreign), in other words, real 150,000 (with artillery, etc.) of a standing army. It seems that by the beginning of the 30YW French army had on a permanent base 6 «Les Vieux Corps» (old regiments) and 6 «Les Petis Vieux» (junior old regiments) and the Guards. Now, if the buildup program starts at the beginning of his reign (during regency of his mother or immediately after it was over) he may have an army of 80 - 100K ready for a war. If it is led with a reasonable competence and there is a backing from the French supporters in the HRE, then the Hapsburgs can be defeated reasonably soon. OTOH, I have a sneaking suspicion that in this scenario France would concentrate its military effort against Spain in the Flanders with a possible extension to the Rhine, aka, its involvement against the Austrian Hapsburgs would not necessarily be extensive. Even then, if Spain is out of war earlier, then a general peace can be negotiated well ahead of the OTL schedule.
 
What would have happened if the Bohemian estates hadn't revolted against Ferdinand II in the first place. Let's say they cannot agree on how to prosecute the rebellion which thus never materialises and then contend themselves to merely use all legal means at their disposal to protest and litigate against his and his administrators' anti-protestant policies.

Could Ferdinand still have declared the letters of majesty, granting the protestants in the lands of the Bohemian crown religious freedoms, null and void even without a rebellion or would he have been forced to at least adhere to their wording if not their intent.
 
What would have happened if the Bohemian estates hadn't revolted against Ferdinand II in the first place. Let's say they cannot agree on how to prosecute the rebellion which thus never materialises and then contend themselves to merely use all legal means at their disposal to protest and litigate against his and his administrators' anti-protestant policies.

Could Ferdinand still have declared the letters of majesty, granting the protestants in the lands of the Bohemian crown religious freedoms, null and void even without a rebellion or would he have been forced to at least adhere to their wording if not their intent.

To be fair, Ferdinand was not an aggressive side in a conflict: he started with quite reasonable objection to the unilateral extension of the Letter of Majesty to the royal lands and convinced Matthias to stop construction of the Protestant churches on these lands. Assembly of the Bohemian Estates was dissolved when it refused to accept the situation and then the estates “self-assembled” and declared that the royal order forfeits their lives and honor, that they are ready to defend themselves against <not quite clear what exactly> regardless the losses of live, property and whatever else. They even refused to give the present regents (2 out of 3) time to discuss the demands and to come with an answer and immediately proceeded with defenestration.

While Ferdinand was not an angel, we have a typical case of a political demagoguery when a party is trying to expand its rights by whipping up a hysteria about being oppressed by an evil tyrant. :)
 
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