AHC: Save Manila

With a POD after December 1, 1941, keep Manila from falling into Japanese hands for at least 6 months. In OTL, it was declared a Free City on December 24th, 1941.
 
With a POD after December 1, 1941, keep Manila from falling into Japanese hands for at least 6 months. In OTL, it was declared a Free City on December 24th, 1941.

Between December 1st and December the 8, a US Navy technician of the Subic Bay naval base realized that the US submarine torpedo had some major flaws and he found a way to quickly correct the malfunctions.

After corrections on all the torpedoes of the US Asiatic fleet, the commander of the submarine flottila decided to live test the new torpedoes.

A dozen of US submarines on patrol and live test of their modified torpedoes spotted the Japanese invasion fleet and sunk severals ships including most of the troops transports...
 
Between December 1st and December the 8, a US Navy technician of the Subic Bay naval base realized that the US submarine torpedo had some major flaws and he found a way to quickly correct the malfunctions.

After corrections on all the torpedoes of the US Asiatic fleet, the commander of the submarine flottila decided to live test the new torpedoes.

A dozen of US submarines on patrol and live test of their modified torpedoes spotted the Japanese invasion fleet and sunk severals ships including most of the troops transports...

Could the flaws in the Torpedoes be fixed out in the field?
 

Kissinger

Banned
How about Macarthur's bombers taking off early enough? The airfield is hit and Japanese bombers are delayed along with the invasion fleet.
 
How about Macarthur's bombers taking off early enough? The airfield is hit and Japanese bombers are delayed along with the invasion fleet.

You're probably going to need more than that. In OTL the Japanese planes were sniffing around the Philippines prior to the initial attacks. Though apparently some proposed planning a strike on Taiwan just in case, MacArthur, not wanting to start a war, decided not to. A lack of information about the whereabouts and strength of the Japanese forces was a major factor in the decision not to launch the bombing raid after hearing about Pearl Harbour.

Let's say in TTL he's convinced to authorize reconnaissance missions around southern Taiwan prior to Pearl Harbour. The information manages to convince MacArthur that a war's coming and he begins to prepare the Philippines for war as if the War has already started. The Philippine government is brought onboard with these breakneck preparations and everything else proceeds according to OTL until the attack on Pearl Harbour. Advance knowledge of Japanese invasion plans means that Mac's not caught flat-footed in TTL and authorizes the pre-planned attack on the Japanese invasion fleet. Due to a heavy fog that shrouded the airfields in OTL the B-17's should only take minor losses, and as they're bombing stationary vessels in the harbour they stand a chance of inflicting some serious damage.

As for the previous posts about submarines and torpedoes. This is simply not an option and is far too gargantuan a task to be completed in the Philippines. At most the Americans could have seen to it that the more reliable older torpedoes were used first. This however, would only result in a few more Japanese ships being sunk.

These two possibilities combined is not going to be enough however. Even with a successful raid on Formosa, the Japanese invasion of Luzon is going to happen sooner rather than later. In fact even if the Japanese lose a few ships to the B-17 raid and submarines, they'll probably still proceed on schedule.

Furthermore holding Manila was never part of the American warplan for defending the Philippines as everything was to be concentrated around the far more defensible Bataan peninsula. By opposing the Japanese landings on the beaches, MacArthur directly violated the warplan he was supposed to be following and in so doing lost valuable time and resources that could have led to more troops and supplies making it to the Bataan peninsula causing it to hold out for much longer.

I'm afraid with a POD of December 1st 1941 you're going to need ASB's pure and simple...

BUT I suppose one could cheat by following the letter of the OP rather than the spirit of the OP. Have someone a bit more opportunistic and pro-Axis become the Mayor of Manila following it's declaration as an "open city". This person, hoping to alleviate what is sure to be a painful occupation announces the formation of the Second Philippine Republic and opens negotiations with Japan. Eager to pacify the islands, Homma's forces are ordered not to occupy the city until a treaty can be signed between the new "Philippine Government" and the Japanese Empire. The treaty is signed in early January and it basically makes the Philippines a Japanese puppet state while retaining only minimal sovereignty. Manila remains the stronghold of the new government and is not occupied until near the end of the war when the unpopular collaborationist government collapses.
 
the only thing I can think of is if the United States is actually alert at Pearl Harbor. Quicker reaction by the Navy after the submarine alert in the early morning, along with staff actually being present besides poor Lt Tyler, and perhaps the Navy has water tight doors closed, AAA guns manned, and perhaps the Army might actually get a few planes in the air to meet the first wave. The second wave would have faced even fiercer resistance.

http://www.amazon.com/Attack-Pearl-...=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1307774938&sr=1-1

this book makes a very good case that if the defenders had been ready, they could have given the Japanese a very bloody nose, while US ship losses would have been substantially reduced (perhaps more than half).

Some attention to the radar information would also have shown the US the attack origin, and perhaps the Lexington and Enterprise and surviving land based aircraft (which would likely have been far more numerous with a less effective Japanese attack) might have gotten one or more of the Japanese carriers.

A less mauled USN, and a more mauled IJN opens the possibilities of perhaps some effective action to bring in additional supplies and reinforcements to the Philippines. Although really, the war plan pretty much wrote them off anyway, and the logistics for major USN movement west simply do not exist. But it would have made the Japanese more cautious.

The other option is that the Republic of the Philippines declares independence, and the US announces it will pull out forthwith, which might actually cause the Japanese to postpone action against the US. As Quezon suggested this very thing, it isn't ASB, although I suppose it is cheating (as far as the scenario goes).
 
Could the flaws in the Torpedoes be fixed out in the field?

Actually, IOTL the firing pins were field-modified by subtenders and forward base teams quite successfully. Disable the magnetic exploder (again, any tender or base could and sometime did do this), set to run at minimum depth (depth was selected just prior to firing), and with a field-mod pin you'll get a decent hit & detonation rate.

The problem is how someone finds out that the torpedoes (actually, mostly the detonators) had problems. IOTL there was NEVER a live-fire test. Yes, you read that right. The Navy contracted a single manufacturer to build just about the most expensive piece of ammunition they bought but never did a live-fire test.

The detonators were considered so awesomely powerful and secret that they were kept at shore stations, not issued to ships.

The flaws were so many (ran too deep, magnetic exploder didn't work, contact exploder unreliable...) that it took months even after the stateside ordnance REMFs admitted there was a problem (roughly a year after the sub skippers had concluded there were fundamental design flaws) to find and fix them all.

Back to the OP, have Mac break his neck on December 1st. Command will pass to MG Wainwright, who was at least competent and fairly aggressive. He's only got a week to put his house in order, but that's better than nothing. He'll certainly grant Brereton's first request to bomb Formosa (IOTL Mac ignored even his third request). The FEAF won't be caught on the ground, and they'll do at least a little damage. Perhaps even a lot - the B-17 was a plane the Japanese didn't have a good counter for in the first days of the war. Wainwright can't possibly work with Adm Hart any more poorly than Mac did, so some coordinated Army-Navy action is possible.

Is it enough to hold Manila for six months? I don't know, but it would certainly prolong the PI campaign.
 
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