AHC: Save Austrian Lombardy and Venice

With a PoD after the Congress of Vienna, make it so that the Habsburg Empire retains all its Italian territories up until the 20th century at the very least. Bonus points for saving the cadet branches of the House of Habsburg in the various little Italian states.
 
With a PoD after the Congress of Vienna, make it so that the Habsburg Empire retains all its Italian territories up until the 20th century at the very least. Bonus points for saving the cadet branches of the House of Habsburg in the various little Italian states.
I'm not sure it's possible. Maybe if you can find away to butterfly away Napoleon III's support. Sardinia on it's own wouldn't be able to beat the Austrians short of resorting to guerilla warfare. I don't know enough about their unification, so I don't know if it was considered. Still, if Sardinia allies itself with Prussia, Austria will be forced to hand over Italian territory to the Sardinians so we'd probably need to stop German unification too.
 
Austria must reform in order to have a chance at keeping Lumbardy-Venetia, and do it fast, else the pull of Italian nationalism would become to strong.

They should have created a sort of Parliament in Milan in order to coopt dissent rather than extranging it with ever harsher repression. It would appear better to be a relatively autonomous constituent part of a multinational empire, powerful and well administered, than be a province of a relatively backwards and bigot kingdom like Sardinia-Piedmont.

It is not very probable under Metternich however, so you probably would have to remove him. Maybe it could be an outcome of the revolutions of 1848.
 
Austria's rule over Lombardy and Venetia had something going for it but, in the end, it was the rule of an absolute monarchy that was dominated by an authoritarian and foreign élite. If the Habsburg had granted Milan and Venice a sufficient level of autonomy and democracy, the people of Lombardy and Venetia could've preferred being part of two highly autonomous provinces of the Habsburg realm to being part of two regions of the Savoy-ruled Kingdom of Italy devoid of any sort of autonomy.
 
Austria's rule over Lombardy and Venetia had something going for it but, in the end, it was the rule of an absolute monarchy that was dominated by an authoritarian and foreign élite. If the Habsburg had granted Milan and Venice a sufficient level of autonomy and democracy, the people of Lombardy and Venetia could've preferred being part of two highly autonomous provinces of the Habsburg realm to being part of two regions of the Savoy-ruled Kingdom of Italy devoid of any sort of autonomy.

Decades of Darkness do that so OP should check that
 
Let's not forget these are the guys who, after passing a tobacco tax that resulted in a boycott from their local opponents, sent the troops out with cigars and orders to "smoke vigorously and with relish".

That kind of encapsulates a lot of the problems Habsburg Italy had right there...
 
Austria acts wiser during the Crimean war - that is siding with one or the other side instead of maintaining a huge army (300k) on Russians border that cost a fortune (and leads to Austrias army decline in the following years for lack of funds).

Regardless which side Austria sides with (or true neutral) ist a win win Situation for Austria.

Lets assume Austria sides with Russia - Russia wins the Crimean War - France is not able to support Sardinia

Lets assume Austria sides with UK/France/OE - Austria gets an experienced army including some Money from Russia (reparations) - i.e. better Overall Position for Austria...
 
Let's not forget these are the guys who, after passing a tobacco tax that resulted in a boycott from their local opponents, sent the troops out with cigars and orders to "smoke vigorously and with relish".

That kind of encapsulates a lot of the problems Habsburg Italy had right there...

LOL. I'm totally stealing that for my sig, if you don't mind?
 
Orsini's bomb succeeds.

Whoever replaces Nappy III as ruler of France, it isn't likely to be an ex-Carbonari, so will be less interested in Italian affairs. And in the wake of the assassination, Italians probably won't be too popular in France.

Hopefully, as Prussia looms larger, Austria and France will be drawn closer together, which presumably rules out any conflict over Italy.
 
Austria acts wiser during the Crimean war - that is siding with one or the other side instead of maintaining a huge army (300k) on Russians border that cost a fortune (and leads to Austrias army decline in the following years for lack of funds).

Regardless which side Austria sides with (or true neutral) ist a win win Situation for Austria.

Lets assume Austria sides with Russia - Russia wins the Crimean War - France is not able to support Sardinia

Lets assume Austria sides with UK/France/OE - Austria gets an experienced army including some Money from Russia (reparations) - i.e. better Overall Position for Austria...

That's possible, and might have them prevent or win the ii war of Italian indeoendence, but by then it's probably already too late to keep Lumbardy-Venetia: they are going to face periodic insurrections and wars that would just cripple them.
Instead a different handling of the restoration (very very improbable though) or of the 1848 could make the Italian parts of the empire stay loyal and productive (let's also remember that those are relatively rich and developed lands, in the long run could make the Habsburg much more powerful. This requires however an enlightened leadership that sees the long term benefits of a pseudo federal arrangement (eg at the very least remove Metternich).
 
That's possible, and might have them prevent or win the ii war of Italian indeoendence, but by then it's probably already too late to keep Lumbardy-Venetia: they are going to face periodic insurrections and wars that would just cripple them.

Why should it cripple them? It would be an irritation, but a few students or whatever on barricades can't take on a regular army for any length of time, and certainly can't bring down a great power.

After all, Poland, with a much larger population than Lombardy-Venetia, didn't escape Russian rule for another 60 years, and then only as a side-effect of a full-blown European war. There's no obvious reason why it had to be different for Lom-Ven.
 
The wars would be crippling because the Kingdom of Sardinia wants Lumbardy and will ally itself with France or Prussia. You are right that insurrections alone won't do much material damage. But politically they will be ruinous by fostering the fire of Italian nationalism, putting the Austrians in the unenviable position of "cruel oppressors" and giving a good casus belli to Sardinia.

Finally you have to avoid at all costs the unification of the other Italian states, or at least delay it as much as possible and hope that decades of relative autonomy, economic growth and efficient administration have been enough to create a different, "padanian" identity, so thatItaly can really stay just a "geographical expression".

Most of the members of Garibaldi's expedition came from Lumbardy, keep it loyal and you would greatly weaken Italian nationalism.
 
The wars would be crippling because the Kingdom of Sardinia wants Lumbardy and will ally itself with France or Prussia. You are right that insurrections alone won't do much material damage. But politically they will be ruinous by fostering the fire of Italian nationalism, putting the Austrians in the unenviable position of "cruel oppressors" and giving a good casus belli to Sardinia.


Does it matter whether Sardinia has a casus belli, so long as Austria can keep on good terms with France?

That's why I suggested getting rid of Napoleon III. He was obsessed with Italy, and any other French regime should find it easier to stay friends with Austria - and as long as they stay friends, Sardinia is a convict squashed between two warders.
 
any other French regime should find it easier to stay friends with Austria - and as long as they stay friends, Sardinia is a convict squashed between two warders.

You are right: obviously if France and Austria stay allied there is almost no way for Italy to unify! But wouldn't it be better to make the Habsburg regime more stable by slightly liberalizing it and introducing elements of federalism? That would probably also let Hungary becomes less restive, if done properly.

Besides one day the alliance with France might end and any enemy of Austria will try to use the Italian situation to its own advantage. Think of a situation of European or Global conflict: otl's problems wouod be only worse with a nationalist northern Italy kept in the Empire against its will. Or of a one on one conflict with Prussia or even Russia: Sardinia would surely stir problems and attract divisions away from the main front...

But I concur that Orsini could have been devastating for the Italian cause, had he succeeded.
 
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