AHC: Saddam attacks during Desert Shield:

According to some accounts of the Gulf War Saddam Hussein would have had a better chance had he struck at the Coalition forces during their build-up before they had a great deal of airpower or heavy armor. If he somehow did this with purely conventional means would it have really changed anything? I personally see no means for Iraq to actually win the war in 1991, but had he struck say, before the Abrams and Bradleys arrived what would the Iraqis have actually gained, if anything?
 
I think everybody expected it.

But there would be a lot of different aspects:

Religion: It is not really on for one Muslim country to attack another. That was the sole reason why the Arab League could support Bush. Kuwait was after all small fry, but attacking Saudi wouyld have been a totally different affair.

Arabic countries: More of the same, but this time also posing a direct threat to the rest of the Gulf.

Military: Sure Saddam could have knocked out the Saudi forces, but then what? Saudi is mighty big for a small occupatioin force.

Would Iran have looked on or got itself involved (again)?

Strangely, Kuwait had paid over billions for Saddam to make war on Iran (non-arabic and Shia). Saddam thought it was a donation, but when Kuwait really wanted their money back, it caused trouble. Saudi paid him some $50 bn, but even so, Iraq was in the red.

Only way out was to settle the debt in a different manner. Which he did.
 
Wouldn't airpower pulverize most of the advancing Iraqi units?

It would probably give an initial boost to the anti-war crowd since the war is obviously going to be a bloodbath/quagmore. Assuming allied forces quickly defeat the invasion, I don't think it'd lead to much. Probably caused panic among newscasters.
 
Paul-Absolutely, but depending on when and where he hits the damage might be quite severe. Certainly in terms of the USA's ability to fight a simple, relatively cheap war holding all the cards.

Ivanotter-The idea is that when the USA's taking months to build up its armies to where they can defend, much less attack, Saddam sends his best troops to strike them. Like during the earliest part of Desert Shield before any of the Abrams or Bradleys arrived.

Blackfox5-That was the idea, but how well it would have worked in practice is a good question.
 
Over time, yes. But if we're talking hitting troops who at least at first have to depend on air power to take out T-72s, with the air power IIRC not immediately available and probably as taken by surprise as the ground troops it could be really unpleasant, at least at first.
 
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