AHC: S-African 'Border War', how bad for SA? How good for Cuba?

Have Blue-117

Getting the Soviets to intervene directly a la the US in Vietnam would be good for Cuba and bad for SA. Someone did a thread on this a while ago and I don't remember who, it started out with the Cubans getting beaten pretty badly in the start of the war. The Soviets who don't want SA to gain the oil and minerals in Angola so they deployed the VDV and a couple Guards tank regiments from East Germany. I don't remember the rest but I assume the South Africans got smacked around pretty bad. Fighting the Soviets would be too much for SA to handle, modern tanks, good training, and an air force that completely outclassed them. So worst case scenario you have the SAAF gone, Soviet tanks outside of Johannesburg, a forced regime change, and an economy wrecked from the war.
 

teg

Have Blue-117 said:
Getting the Soviets to intervene directly a la the US in Vietnam would be good for Cuba and bad for SA. Someone did a thread on this a while ago and I don't remember who, it started out with the Cubans getting beaten pretty badly in the start of the war. The Soviets who don't want SA to gain the oil and minerals in Angola so they deployed the VDV and a couple Guards tank regiments from East Germany. I don't remember the rest but I assume the South Africans got smacked around pretty bad. Fighting the Soviets would be too much for SA to handle, modern tanks, good training, and an air force that completely outclassed them. So worst case scenario you have the SAAF gone, Soviet tanks outside of Johannesburg, a forced regime change, and an economy wrecked from the war.
Click to expand...

The US would likely intervene and if I recall correctly, South Africa had nuclear weapons at this point in time. I doubt the Soviets would try and go as far as South Africa, they might liberate Namibia but that would be it.

teg
 

Have Blue-117

teg said:
The US would likely intervene and if I recall correctly, South Africa had nuclear weapons at this point in time. I doubt the Soviets would try and go as far as South Africa, they might liberate Namibia but that would be it.

teg
Click to expand...

The west and the US in particular backed SA to an extent because of their strategic value, but in an open conflict with the Soviets I doubt they would risk WW3 over a country they merely tolerate. And as for nuclear weapons, if SA feels particularly suicidal and decides to use them against Soviet troops, the consequences, well let's just say that the West will look the other way while SA gets what they earned.
 

Fenrisúlfr

teg said:
The US would likely intervene and if I recall correctly, South Africa had nuclear weapons at this point in time. I doubt the Soviets would try and go as far as South Africa, they might liberate Namibia but that would be it.
Click to expand...

Reading South African accounts of the border war I really doubt the army would stand for the Soviets getting even as far as Namibia which the higher ups regarded as their buffer state against the rest of Africa in a similar manner to the way the Soviet Union considered the Eastern Europe.

Seriously the South African army was crazy prepared (that might not be the right word). Reading accounts of the time it seemed like they seriously considered race war/a war of annihilation to be a real possibility. Some of the accounts talk about South African special forces operating without impunity as far north as the Congo.

How about Mandela is killed in jail and we get a violent civil war in South Africa? Although this might just make things worse... The Cubans had access to nasty chemical weapons so we could see the war just escalating as the South Africans get desperate and use some nukes to try to solve their problems.

EDIT:
Have Blue-117 said:
well let's just say that the West will look the other way while SA gets what they earned.
Click to expand...

Depending on the era we're talking about Reagan, Thatcher or Nixon. They will not sit back and watch that is highly unrealistic. You're thinking with a cold war/arm chair generals mindset.

EDIT 2: My source (well the one I can remember) so people don't think I'm talking out my arse:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1770073019/ref=oh_details_o08_s00_i00?ie=UTF8&psc=1
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
Yep, the link doesn't work and refuses to be fixed :mad:
I was pointing out that is dramatization of a worse-case scenario for South Africa. Race wars and invasions.
For Cuba, the novel paints them as doing very well indeed up until the end.
 

Have Blue-117

Fenrisúlfr said:
Depending on the era we're talking about Reagan, Thatcher or Nixon. They will not sit back and watch that is highly unrealistic. You're thinking with a cold war/arm chair generals mindset.
Click to expand...

There would be general condemnation against both sides but neither Reagan or Thatcher will risk nuclear war with the Soviet Union when SA decided to escalate the conflict . They might increase the aid given to SA or lift sanctions but a NATO intervention is out of the question IMO.
 

Thoresby

While NATO isn't going to trigger MAD to save Apartheid just like in Israel the Soviets aren't going to risk it either in order to destroy Apartheid. While the Soviets might send VDV troops as "advisors" they certainly aren't going to send tank regiments and they definitely aren't going to advance on Joburg.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top