AHC: Russo-German WWII Axis

[MerryPrankster]

With the latest POD possible, make it so WWII is a war between a Russo-German Axis against the British, French, and whomever else would logically join up.

The Russians and Germans would want to revise the Eastern European situation to their liking, which means dividing Poland and Russian retrieval of WWI territorial losses. Anschluss would probably be a German priority as well.

To expand the war beyond Eastern Europe, the Germans might also want to reclaim Alsace-Lorraine and perhaps territorially aggrandize at the expense of its western neighbors, while the Russians might resume the "Great Game" against Britain, with Constantinople and Indian Ocean ports the prize.

This obviously requires no OTL Nazi takeover. No USSR is probably also a requirement, although OTL's territorial losses require the Germans to defeat Russia but then get defeated themselves. OTL's Russo-German cooperation resulted because the Russians were pariahs due to Communism, but playing the Great Game was something the Czarist regime did far more than the Bolsheviks (the post-WWII grab for Constantinople being the last one).

Hmm...White victory in the RCW, but the Whites later fall out with the British and French for some reason? With Communism being less scary, we might get a different government in Germany that isn't psychotically anti-Slavic.

A restored Kaiser and a restored Czar vs. everyone else? Maybe they can call it the War of the Two Emperors.

 

[The Red]

You only really need to have the Allies make the absolute worst decision about Finland in OTL. Something that wasn't completely out the question.

 

[MerryPrankster]

You only really need to have the Allies make the absolute worst decision about Finland in OTL. Something that wasn't completely out the question.

Well, I did say "latest."

 

[The Red]

Well, I did say "latest."

November 1940 possibly?

 

[MerryPrankster]

November 1940 possibly?

Yes, but I was thinking of something a bit more radical than that, based on my comments about different governments in one or both countries. This whole thing is a spinoff of the Lenin thread in Chat in which we discussed whether no October Revolution or a different Bolshevik regime would butterfly the Nazis and whether a non-Nazi German revanchist regime would be an enemy or ally of Russia/USSR.

Of course, as I said, I did say "latest."

 

[The Red]

Of course, as I said, I did say "latest."

I mixed up what you meant by latest, apologies.

 

[MerryPrankster]

I mixed up what you meant by latest, apologies.

There's no need to apologize--I said latest POD possible and Operation Pike certainly counts as the latest POD possible. Your reasoning for posting that suggestion is sound.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

The easiest alliance with the least possibility of either side getting horribly backstabbed by the other involves a Weimar Germany or something close allied with the Bolsheviks, this would obviously entail the untimely demise of the Nazis. I disagree with the PoD requiring no USSR... having the USSR around only makes it easier, when both nations are hated for starting a world war and being evil communists then there isn't really much alternative but to align.

 

[Xachiavelli]

Operation Pike plus Allied intervention in the Winter War could easily piss the Soviets off enough to make them throw their weight in with the Axis.

We'd likely see the Soviets take all of Finland if they have the other Axis behind them, and they could attack China to take East Turkestan, thereby helping out the Japanese. I dunno, just musing.

 

[Julian]

Getting the Soviets to go all in behind Nazi Germany is very diffucult. Economic and intelligence cooperation is one thing, but an actual attack on a Allied member (Britain most likely) would have some serious consequences that Stalin wouldn't immediately want; for instance, it would remove all flexibility in Soviet foreign policy. It would also force the Soviet Union into a war with the "Capitaist West" while a third party (Nazi Germany) looks on, again not what Stalin wanted. The most one would see is a full Sovie occupation of Iran and some minor battles in Iraq and Pakistan. Anything further would require, oddly enough, some serious concessions from Nazi Germany. Most likely Bulgaria, Turkey, and larger portions of Romania are placed in the Soviet sphere of influence. But Nazi Germany is unlikely to agree, so peace between Britain and the Soviet Union in early 1941 or late 1940 is likely, with relatively few British concessions beyond Iran.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Getting the Soviets to go all in behind Nazi Germany is very diffucult. Economic and intelligence cooperation is one thing, but an actual attack on a Allied member (Britain most likely) would have some serious consequences that Stalin wouldn't immediately want; for instance, it would remove all flexibility in Soviet foreign policy. It would also force the Soviet Union into a war with the "Capitaist West" while a third party (Nazi Germany) looks on, again not what Stalin wanted. The most one would see is a full Sovie occupation of Iran and some minor battles in Iraq and Pakistan. Anything further would require, oddly enough, some serious concessions from Nazi Germany. Most likely Bulgaria, Turkey, and larger portions of Romania are placed in the Soviet sphere of influence. But Nazi Germany is unlikely to agree, so peace between Britain and the Soviet Union in early 1941 or late 1940 is likely, with relatively few British concessions beyond Iran.

By virtue of doing that the Soviets will invite the British to escalate the war, it is never going to be British policy to let Persia, which provides a majority of Britain's oil and a good deal of Europe's, fall under Soviet influence.

It also is a direct threat to Britain's route to India, you don't need a commie-hating warmonger like Churchill in office, any British prime minister would react to a Soviet move against all of Persia with maximum force, it will be an all-out war and after that the Soviets only have the Germans left to turn to.

So to use your own logic, Stalin isn't going to play that game in Persia because he knows that even if he succeeds the outcome is bad for him in the long-term.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Have the rearming German revanchist regime be led by traditional monarchists who see the USSR as something they can tame and control, ignoring and glossing over its more unsavory aspects by hoping that they can control the bull by the nose-ring.

 

[Max Sinister]

It all depends on Stalin. If he had decided that acquiring Persia and India would be a good idea, this would work - but why should he do so? That's the problem: We don't know enough about what exactly he thought, and this might include the professional historians.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Have the rearming German revanchist regime be led by traditional monarchists who see the USSR as something they can tame and control, ignoring and glossing over its more unsavory aspects by hoping that they can control the bull by the nose-ring.

Or a Weimar Republican regime that doesn't see anyone else who will open up to them but the Soviets, really quite a lot of different things work. Or some pragmatic, conservative junkers that aren't any big fans of the Bolshevik menace but aren't about to turn down a very convenient partnership either.

 

[Julian]

By virtue of doing that the Soviets will invite the British to escalate the war, it is never going to be British policy to let Persia, which provides a majority of Britain's oil and a good deal of Europe's, fall under Soviet influence.

It also is a direct threat to Britain's route to India, you don't need a commie-hating warmonger like Churchill in office, any British prime minister would react to a Soviet move against all of Persia with maximum force, it will be an all-out war and after that the Soviets only have the Germans left to turn to.

So to use your own logic, Stalin isn't going to play that game in Persia because he knows that even if he succeeds the outcome is bad for him in the long-term.

I suppose you're right about that.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

I suppose you're right about that.

The Soviets still made a run for parts of Persia historically, they just wound up losing and getting kicked out of all the parts they took. And they only entered alongside Britain in the first place because Lend-Lease supplies to the USSR needed to go in through Persia (other places were far too spotty).

Basically as the Bolshies get closer to Khuzestan their perceived threat increases ever more.

 

[Julian]

The Soviets still made a run for parts of Persia historically, they just wound up losing and getting kicked out of all the parts they took. And they only entered alongside Britain in the first place because Lend-Lease supplies to the USSR needed to go in through Persia (other places were far too spotty).

Basically as the Bolshies get closer to Khuzestan their perceived threat increases ever more.

Indeed. I suppose it's more likely that they demand the Azeri regions along with a sphere of influence in northern Iran, along with some political concessions from Britain to be carried out post war.

 

[Anaxagoras]

IIRC, Germany actually extended an invitation to the USSR to join the Tripartite Pact at some point in 1940, after the fall of France. Negotiations broke down over the extent of Soviet demands, which included control of Bulgaria and the Dardanelles.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Indeed. I suppose it's more likely that they demand the Azeri regions along with a sphere of influence in northern Iran, along with some political concessions from Britain to be carried out post war.

The British won't consciously give it to them is the only problem, again Soviet influence in Northern Iran means a spear pointed directly at the heart of Khuzestan, from which 80% of Iran's oil comes.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

IIRC, Germany actually extended an invitation to the USSR to join the Tripartite Pact at some point in 1940, after the fall of France. Negotiations broke down over the extent of Soviet demands, which included control of Bulgaria and the Dardanelles.

Molotov wanted to join the Axis if I remember, though the problem with this sort of agreement was that it was inevitably skewed in favor of the Soviets, especially once Germany was, for obvious reasons, pretty unpopular with the rest of the world, the Soviets were their only source for things like grains and petrol (especially after the acquisition of Bessarabia by the Soviet Union, which essentially gave them Germany by the nose when it came to fuel resources). It was Stalin's view that by enabling the Germans it gave him time to consolidate, retake old Russian Empire lands, and get ready for what would probably have ended in a betrayal of Nazi Germany by the Soviet Union.