Your challenge should you accept it, is, using any POD after the start of the Great War, to allow the Russian Imperial Army to capture Berlin at any time in 1915.
AHC: Russians capture Berlin in 1915
- Thread starter Enigmajones
- Start date
Battle of Tannenberg (1914)
for that to be realistically possible a key factor would be the Russians winning the Battle of Tannenberg (1914)
for that to be realistically possible a key factor would be the Russians winning the Battle of Tannenberg (1914)
Thats what I was thinking, but given how badly the Russians were defeated at Tannenberg, I think avoiding Tannenberg would potentially be a better idea.
one of the key factors that made it a German victory, was that the Russians weren't encrypting their radio transmissions.
Er, given the, er, wonderful performance of the Russian Army in that war, wouldn't be far, far into vodka-soaked ASBland? 
The, er, wonderful performance of the Russian bullet factories didn't help, either. Though, my grandad was given enough bullets - they were just the wrong kind fcr his gun, of course....
The, er, wonderful performance of the Russian bullet factories didn't help, either. Though, my grandad was given enough bullets - they were just the wrong kind fcr his gun, of course....
Er, given the, er, wonderful performance of the Russian Army in that war, wouldn't be far, far into vodka-soaked ASBland?
I agree, the Germans had it all over the Russians in WW1, they won both Tanbnenburg and Mansurian Lakes with vastly less forces and then proceeded to drill the Russians constantly for 4 years.
Actually, this could be doable. If you could get Brusilov's tactics accepted by the vast majority of the Russian high command, I could definitely see a Russian offensive reaching Berlin...but probably not by 1915. The problem with the Russian forces wasn't lack of bravery or outdated equipment, just supply and tactics. Fixing the latter might make up for the former enough to count.
oberdada
Gone Fishin'
I don't think Tannenberg is enough.
At the end of 1914 it sholdn't be a problem for Germany to move troups from the western front out and to the East.
This might result in a loss of initative, but that wasn't worth much on the western front in ww1 anyhow.
Loosing Berlin would be a desaster, even more for the Kaiser, than for the rest of the country.
Loosing Tannenberg, or avoiding it, might lead to a concentration of German troups onto the Eastern front, and in the long run help Germany to win the war.
Just a thought, maybe there are loopholes in that strain of though that the entire Belgian army could have moved through.
At the end of 1914 it sholdn't be a problem for Germany to move troups from the western front out and to the East.
This might result in a loss of initative, but that wasn't worth much on the western front in ww1 anyhow.
Loosing Berlin would be a desaster, even more for the Kaiser, than for the rest of the country.
Loosing Tannenberg, or avoiding it, might lead to a concentration of German troups onto the Eastern front, and in the long run help Germany to win the war.
Just a thought, maybe there are loopholes in that strain of though that the entire Belgian army could have moved through.
BlairWitch749
Banned
If the POD is after august 1914 not a chance on earth
Russian field equipment if anything was fairly advanced for it's day (certainly competitive... they where the world leader in military aircraft production and the foremost thinkers on tanks at the start of the war)
BUT the soft aspects of war in supplying their divisions as the front, and keeping the men comfortable enough to fight were lacking, to say nothing of the tremendous black hole that was their leadership at regiment and above
The Russians didn't provision to give their WALKING infantry divisions boots... they also omitted mobile field kitchens... they actually lost battles in 1914 due to sore feet and exhaustion/starvation before the sociopaths in higher command like jalinsky marched them into known encirclement paths
Russian field equipment if anything was fairly advanced for it's day (certainly competitive... they where the world leader in military aircraft production and the foremost thinkers on tanks at the start of the war)
BUT the soft aspects of war in supplying their divisions as the front, and keeping the men comfortable enough to fight were lacking, to say nothing of the tremendous black hole that was their leadership at regiment and above
The Russians didn't provision to give their WALKING infantry divisions boots... they also omitted mobile field kitchens... they actually lost battles in 1914 due to sore feet and exhaustion/starvation before the sociopaths in higher command like jalinsky marched them into known encirclement paths
The only feasible way I can begin to contemplate it is if the Russians concentrate on A-H more, A-H either collapses or loses significant ground allowing the Russians to flank large chunks of Germany. Even then I'm struggling. The problem the Russians had was logistics - theirs was years behind Germany's. If Germany was in danger of losing Berlin or significant ground in the east then they'd have diverted troops from the western front and gone on the defensive against France and Britain.
retake
They did it in 1760. A lot of things went wrong to get Russia into the state it was in 1914. Change just one or two, and the impact will be huge.
Russia 1850 onwards was one of those cases were everything that could go wrong went. Germany 1850/1918 one of those were things that should have gone wrong didn't.
They did it in 1760. A lot of things went wrong to get Russia into the state it was in 1914. Change just one or two, and the impact will be huge.
Russia 1850 onwards was one of those cases were everything that could go wrong went. Germany 1850/1918 one of those were things that should have gone wrong didn't.
OK how about this as a sketch.
Rennenkampf is killed during the Chitra rebellion. The new 1st Army commander – Alexandr Nathanovich Otherski. As a subaltern he had to flee Madame Gigi’s school for young ballerinas in St Pete following a police raid and hid out on a roof with the equally embarrassed Samsonov, as a result they get on well.
Serves with distinction in the Russo Turkish war after which, because of his Irish ancestors he is thought suitable for appointment as attaché to the Washington Embassy and spends several years in the US in the 1880s. He visits relatives in Kentucky and has dalliances with a Miss Feebs of Nashville, Mrs Blaine of Corinth, a lady of uncertain reputation in Atlanta and the wife of a prominent politician in Mississippi. Has various garrison and staff appointments in the late 1880’2 and 1890’s. He misses the Japanese war as he is observer during the Boer war.
All of which is pure Chrome 1st army commander and Samsonov do not actively hate each other. 1st army commander has a reasonable appreciation of the potential of cavalry (mounted infantry) in modern combat taken from speaking to US Civil war veterans, or their daughters, and observation of the Boer War (either commando or the British response). He is also exposed to latest Russian thinking on operations. He commands the Vilnius MD on the basis that this is the post of the 1st army commander designate and expounds on his theories to his subordinates, who listen as this is often done in congenial surroundings.
Actual POD. AN Otherski expects recon from his cavalry and chivvies them. He does not stop but does maintain army cohesion. Von Francois attack at Stalluponen achieves moderate success only because of better russian recon and he is unable to break contact and demands his army commander support him. Prittwitz delays despite Hoffmans pleading and a running fight develops between Von Francois, Prittwitz and Hoffman on the one hand and von Francois Corps and his Russian pursuers on the other. The actual battle of Gumbinnen involves German XVII and I reserve corps only. It is defeated per OTL and retreats in considerable disorder.
At this point AN Otherski is able to attack and comprehensively defeat Von Francois weary and isolated corps. Based on his appreciation of the situation (6,000 POW from XVII and I Reserve) and his life experience he then releases 1st and 2nd Guard Cavalry Corps on a deep penetration attack aimed at destruction of German logistics, it is later regarded as the birth of the Operational Manoeuvre Group. It also has the happy effect of reducing supply requirements for the infantry – the OMG is ordered to forage off Prussia.
Prittwitz is thoroughly unnerved and orders a retreat to the Vistula (per OTL) which is rapidly becoming a rout with some formations and many civilians making for the fortress of Konigsberg.
In any event the Germans do not capture the Russian operational plan and the retreat continues with the OMG keepin up the skeer on I Reserve, XVII and I Corps(though only AN Otherski understands the reference). This particularly affects I and I Reserve Corps the majority of whose units are retreating to Konigsberg.
And at that point I Stop.
The Russians have won a significant tactical victory at Gumbinnen and exploited it taking at least 1 German corps out of the OOB and are close to effecting a junction between 1st and 2nd armies with commanders who will cooperate.
Rennenkampf is killed during the Chitra rebellion. The new 1st Army commander – Alexandr Nathanovich Otherski. As a subaltern he had to flee Madame Gigi’s school for young ballerinas in St Pete following a police raid and hid out on a roof with the equally embarrassed Samsonov, as a result they get on well.
Serves with distinction in the Russo Turkish war after which, because of his Irish ancestors he is thought suitable for appointment as attaché to the Washington Embassy and spends several years in the US in the 1880s. He visits relatives in Kentucky and has dalliances with a Miss Feebs of Nashville, Mrs Blaine of Corinth, a lady of uncertain reputation in Atlanta and the wife of a prominent politician in Mississippi. Has various garrison and staff appointments in the late 1880’2 and 1890’s. He misses the Japanese war as he is observer during the Boer war.
All of which is pure Chrome 1st army commander and Samsonov do not actively hate each other. 1st army commander has a reasonable appreciation of the potential of cavalry (mounted infantry) in modern combat taken from speaking to US Civil war veterans, or their daughters, and observation of the Boer War (either commando or the British response). He is also exposed to latest Russian thinking on operations. He commands the Vilnius MD on the basis that this is the post of the 1st army commander designate and expounds on his theories to his subordinates, who listen as this is often done in congenial surroundings.
Actual POD. AN Otherski expects recon from his cavalry and chivvies them. He does not stop but does maintain army cohesion. Von Francois attack at Stalluponen achieves moderate success only because of better russian recon and he is unable to break contact and demands his army commander support him. Prittwitz delays despite Hoffmans pleading and a running fight develops between Von Francois, Prittwitz and Hoffman on the one hand and von Francois Corps and his Russian pursuers on the other. The actual battle of Gumbinnen involves German XVII and I reserve corps only. It is defeated per OTL and retreats in considerable disorder.
At this point AN Otherski is able to attack and comprehensively defeat Von Francois weary and isolated corps. Based on his appreciation of the situation (6,000 POW from XVII and I Reserve) and his life experience he then releases 1st and 2nd Guard Cavalry Corps on a deep penetration attack aimed at destruction of German logistics, it is later regarded as the birth of the Operational Manoeuvre Group. It also has the happy effect of reducing supply requirements for the infantry – the OMG is ordered to forage off Prussia.
Prittwitz is thoroughly unnerved and orders a retreat to the Vistula (per OTL) which is rapidly becoming a rout with some formations and many civilians making for the fortress of Konigsberg.
In any event the Germans do not capture the Russian operational plan and the retreat continues with the OMG keepin up the skeer on I Reserve, XVII and I Corps(though only AN Otherski understands the reference). This particularly affects I and I Reserve Corps the majority of whose units are retreating to Konigsberg.
And at that point I Stop.
The Russians have won a significant tactical victory at Gumbinnen and exploited it taking at least 1 German corps out of the OOB and are close to effecting a junction between 1st and 2nd armies with commanders who will cooperate.
And 1812 the French got to Moscow within a year, why didn't they even reach the Rhine in WWI?
In late Oct 1914 Ludendorff continues with his advance on Warsaw. Ninth Army gets enveloped and crushed by Russian First, Second and Third Armies. Even with this POD the Russians taking Berlin is a sort of worst case. More likely is Germany desperately trying to negotiate around Christmas.
BlondieBC
Banned
Agreed. It is just too many steps, and butterflies.
1) Russia first would have to have a plan to attack Germany first not A-H.
2) The plan would take years to develop, and the Germans would learn of it, and change their War Plan, maybe increase army size.
3) Even if you skip #2, the Russians don't have the logistics. The Germans will just bring troops from the West and stall the advance east of Berlin.
4) Even if you skip #2 and #3, the Austrians are in a lot better shape, and the Russians will have to deal with a major counter attack into their flanks.
You can write a TL that does this, but not a simple POD.
BlairWitch749
Banned
it could MAYBE be done with pods as late as 1905-06... but that's it otherwise not going to happen
And 1812 the French got to Moscow within a year, why didn't they even reach the Rhine in WWI?
The Germans surrendered too fast... They would have made Berlin in 1919 and still had plenty of gas...
Snake Featherston
Banned
I disagree. In a sense if Russia does well in 1914, Tannenberg is a circumstance that should not happen, rather you see Jilinsky's Army Group bring two armies against one relatively understrength German army. Tannenberg happened IOTL because the Russians did not properly co-ordinate their armies, if they do properly co-ordinate them and/or concentrate them, Germany's army in Prussia is screwed, blued, and tatooed.
Er, given the, er, wonderful performance of the Russian Army in that war, wouldn't be far, far into vodka-soaked ASBland?
The, er, wonderful performance of the Russian bullet factories didn't help, either. Though, my grandad was given enough bullets - they were just the wrong kind fcr his gun, of course....
Actually Russia's bullet factories were doing rather well by 1916-7, enough to supply the Red Army for the entirety of the RCW. Russia made the huge mistake of embarking on a war where it was logistically outmatched only nine years after a very destabilizing revolution, which meant that perfectly ordinary military factors would become far more crippling when the Russian government's own legitimacy was rather narrower.
This is a wee bit of an overstatement. Russia defeated Russia in WWI, Germany didn't do anything to it strategically. Russia embarked on a major war nine years after a destabilizing revolution. Germany's barren strategic results from a string of tactical victories would not necessarily have destabilized a strong, powerful Russia. After all the Napoleonic Russia didn't have a tactical victory over Napoleon outside of Suvorov in Italy and it was the one that got to Paris, while the USSR took much more devastating losses of manpower and territory and got global superpower status from that.
This is a bit of an overstatement. Russia's problems were the twin debacles of the Russo-Japanese War and the First Russian Revolution, both of which left the regime discredited and which were compounded by the stupidity of Nicholas II. As Stalin showed someone sufficiently evil and callous in terms of cost was perfectly able to take much more gruesome losses in a longer war with Germany and gain far more from it.
By comparison, there were parts of WWI where the huge mass that was the Tsarist Empire had no military or political leadership whatsoever, with a Tsar playing checkers being a do-nothing and Rasputin playing Musical Ministers. And then when we factor in how much of the paralysis in 1917 was to do with the problems of using two separate and infighting governments to wage a war for incompatible aims......Russia was defeated in WWI due to being a headless chicken.
At the same time due to the greater logistical impoverishment of WWI Russia relative to WWII Russia, even a Stalin type couldn't get Russia to Berlin on logistics that would consist of make believe and the coconut effect.