AHC: Russian Space X?

trurle

Banned
Now it seems the glory days of Roscosmos - leveraging from Soviet era infrastructure and technology - are coming to an end thanks to SpaceX but also other actors bringing in the improved technology.

The AHC is, how could Roscosmos build a succesful follow-ups to Soviet era technologies? The objective is not to create a Space X -style company per se, but a level of launch technology which is clearly ahead of rivals. There's certainly no lack of innovative engineers and scientists in Russian space sector. There were facilities for mass production to leverage from scale of production.

Now, Could Roscosmos do it with improved spending or would this just mean more extravagant dachas for Putin's inner circle? If it could, what would be the actual planned projects which would be produced or completely imaginary projects which could reach these goals?
I would agree with @Workable Goblin in that Roskosmos was institutionally incapable of developing leading technology. Following problems were preventing development:
1) Hostile relations with the US and therefore problem in developing compact flight computers (OTL SpaceX actually had one-board flight computer from beginning of Falcon 1 development). To be exact, Roscosmos due close association with Russian military would be constantly pressured to use obsolete, bulky and unreliable electronics which can be produced or stocked in Russia
2) Poor productivity of Russian engineers due brain drain (education collapse is not significant effect before 2005, because age cohort educated before collapse is still in their most productive age).
3) General state corruption which ensure only small fraction of allocated resources would be spent of R&D
4) Poor availability of specialized design software, resulting in ever poorer engineer productivity.
 
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Now it seems the glory days of Roscosmos - leveraging from Soviet era infrastructure and technology - are coming to an end thanks to SpaceX but also other actors bringing in the improved technology.

The AHC is, how could Roscosmos build a succesful follow-ups to Soviet era technologies? The objective is not to create a Space X -style company per se, but a level of launch technology which is clearly ahead of rivals. There's certainly no lack of innovative engineers and scientists in Russian space sector. There were facilities for mass production to leverage from scale of production.

Now, Could Roscosmos do it with improved spending or would this just mean more extravagant dachas for Putin's inner circle? If it could, what would be the actual planned projects which would be produced or completely imaginary projects which could reach these goals?

Hmm. Roscosmos has 3 big problems as I see it:

1) Financial instability - space has often been neglected while Russia grapples with economic and financial crises.

2) The collapse of the Russian education system - means there's not so much of a pool to recruit new Russian rocket scientists from.

3) Balkanization of the old Soviet space industry - which has made efficient use of Soviet legacies difficult and resulted in security driven duplication of much effort.

For a "Russian Musk" (3) isn't necessarily a problem, it may be more the necessity that mothers their enterprise.

Since the collapse of the education system was mainly a project of the violent economic transition, I suspect that less financial instability is the main PoD needed.

fasquardon
 
I thought Yenisei is meant to be a super-heavy rocket that could reach the Moon while the Soyuz-5 is intended as the light/medium rocket akin to the Falcon 9?

Yenisei use boosters with RD-171MV in size of Zenit first stage.
Sodruzhestvo is modular approach that use rocket stage in size of Zenit first stage with RD-171MV
Soyuz-5 now use same approach of Sodruzhestvo

1) Financial instability - space has often been neglected while Russia grapples with economic and financial crises.
while some Russian oligarchs became rich between $5 to 15 billion dollar.
The "Russian Musk" using a traditional cost-plus contract development costs would have been $3.6 billion for his rocket. Elon Musk used $300 development costs on his Falcon 9

2) The collapse of the Russian education system - means there's not so much of a pool to recruit new Russian rocket scientists from.
The "Russian Musk" could work on problem "the collapse of the education system", by installing private school for Rocket scientists run by retired Rocket scientists...

1) Hostile relations with the US and therefore problem in developing compact flight computers (OTL SpaceX actually had one-board flight computer from beginning of Falcon 1 development). To be exact, Roscosmos due close association with Russian military would be constantly pressured to use obsolete, bulky and unreliable electronics which can be produced or stocked in Russia
the "Russian Musk" could order the needed electronics from China.

The "Russian Musk" could exploit the disastrous situation in Russian Space industry and make himself a House hold name
needed by Military to launch Hardware in Space, same time playing national card about Russian to Moon and Mars
but for that he has to be loyal to Putin regime in order to survive...
 
There is another company that would fit Russian SpaceX also: GKNPTs Khrunichev.
Khrunichev is interesting because it was the only company to keep its independence from other government ministries and Roscosmos, rumoured to be thanks to Yeltsin's daughter working there, and as far as I'm aware it was the only commercially profitable company thanks to its Proton rockets – to the extent that via ILS, the joint venture with Lockheed Martin, and export controls the US government instituted quotas on the number of commercial launches they could carry out for several years due to fears of dumping.

I've wondered in the past about an oligarch buying them in 1995 during the loans for shares scheme. Our oligarch Ivan Ivanovich Ivanov is smart enough to reinvest early profits to help modernise the company since the commercial launch market is much less forgiving of launch failures and to accelerate the design of a new upper stage so that they can keep all the profits in-house rather than having to split them. Several years later when the financial crisis hits they make an opportunistic bid for TsSKB-Progress, which pays off a couple of years later when the Space Shuttle is retired and they're the only way of accessing space.
 
Several years later when the financial crisis hits they make an opportunistic bid for TsSKB-Progress, which pays off a couple of years later when the Space Shuttle is retired and they're the only way of accessing space.

I wonder could a shuttle disaster in Clinton era kill the Shuttle for good, thus opening road for possible US-Russian joint spacecraft project?
 
GKNPT Khrunichev would be the Ideal company for "Russian Musk"

Khrunichev main product is the Proton rocket the Workhorse for Soviet and Russian space program.
Next to that TKS spacecraft and space station parts.
1995 they started with R&D on the Angara rocket family (and Baikal fly-back booster)
but that got delay for 20 years because several reason:

- Lack of funding by Russian government (what let to end of Baikal)
- Technical problem because Khrunichev had no experience with cryogenic propellants like kerolox
- common political struggle and intrigue that hamper the Soviet/Russian space program from the begin


Would our "Russian Musk" get it hands on GKNPT Khrunichev and buy the company,
he would not only got Launcher, but also spacecraft like TKS to use als "Russian Dragon" and by way launch Part of ISS into space...
Let assume he trow also allot of money into R&D on Angara rocket family and hiring Russian rocket engineers specialize in cryogenic propellants like Kerolox.
He could made the first Angara test flight in 2005 and launch of Angara 5 in 2006.
In same year the company win NASA Commercial Orbital Transportation Services with TKS spacecraft
In 2011 first landing of Baikal, it will be use as reusable Booster for Angara 3/5 version.

Off course he will made allot enemies in Russian Space Industry and Political circles
question is "Russian Musk" merciless enough to kill his enemies before they try to kill him ?
 
But that got delayed for 20 years because of several reasons:

Lack of funding by Russian government (what let to end of Baikal)
Best I can think of here is some sort of tax deal. I don't know if the Russian tax laws of the time allowed the transfer of liabilities between companies held by the same holding company, but if our oligarch also owned other profitable businesses then losses on research and development could be used to help negate their overall tax bill.


Technical problem because Khrunichev had no experience with cryogenic propellants like kerolox
That was in part, aside from a bit of hindsight, one of the reasons I thought of buying Progress when the Russian government was desperately short of funds in the mid-1990s. Since Soyuz had been solidly kerolox for the last 30 years it allows to buy in the knowledge and experience cheaply.


Common political struggle and intrigue that hamper the Soviet/Russian space program from the beginning
I did have a list of the different bureaus that they'd probably want to look at trying to buy to bring as much of the work in-house and be as independent as possible around here somewhere.
 
The "Russian Musk" could work on problem "the collapse of the education system", by installing private school for Rocket scientists run by retired Rocket scientists...

The idea of an oligarch running their own education system got me imagining a TL where Glushko or Chelomei had lived into the new era and had become oligarchs... Given the empire building tendencies both men showed in their lives, I can imagine them adapting to the oligarch era if they weren't senile.

The bulk of the Soviet space-industrial sector being united under one space cadet "oligarch" during the 90s and 00s and struggling to survive is interesting. On the one hand, space is expensive and the overlap with defence industries would make for a delicate political position, on the other hand, control of so much high-tech manufacturing and access to so much skilled manpower gives certain economic advantages.

Gives me ideas for a more fantastic space TL with the same level of realism as, say, e of pi's dawn of the dragon.

I wonder if overall it has been a boon or a detriment for Russian space industry to have had so many old ICBMs to re-purpose as launch vehicles? Perhaps one of the things the "Russian Musk" would need is to not have access to those military assets and have to figure out how to compete with re-purposed ICBMs and IRBMs using new-built rockets?

fasquardon
 
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