AHC Russian intervention in northern Kazakhstan?

Post-1991, is there any chance of Russia operating to 'liberate' the Russian-majority districts of Kazakhstan? What say you, Russia experts? What circumstances might have lead to that sort of operation?

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Russia plans only push the oppressed minority button when its neighbours do something blatantly against its interest. See Crimea and eastern Ukraine as an example.

Kazakhstan is very pro Russia even moving its capital closer to the Russian majority north. So unless the Kazakh government do something like attempting to join NATO Russia won't press the button.

Also for those who say Putin didn't push the oppressed Russian minority button with the Baltic states when they joined NATO so My answer must wrong and he can do it to Kazakhstan tommorow. Remember this early 2000's Russia was a weak defeat nation coming out of a decade of darkness and could do anything about it. Now they have recovered and are one of only 2 country that can end this world.
 
You'd need a Kazakhstan that went in a different direction post-USSR. As long as the Kazakhs stay on Russia's good side they have nothing to worry about. So if Kazakhstan were to try to become more Western aligned it would be possible for the Russians to pull this trick.
 
You need a Russian government which is either extreme Pan-Russian or Pan-Slavic or as distraction from internal issues . About a pro-western Kazakhstan that is impossible due it's landlocked position and the lack of American power projection in the former Soviet Central Asia.
 
Maybe if Zhirinofsky somehow seizes power. He seems like the guy who would immediately push for a union witht Belarus and start agitating for “border adjustments” with Kazakhstan, the Ukraine, and perhaps a few other places.
 
I mean Russia has no reason to intervene, but if it for whatever reason did, it doesn't have to go the route of Crimea...look at Armenia, who pushed out the old guard and yet Russian soft power has ensured that those taking power continued to be pro Moscow.
 
What about if a bunch of radical Turkic nationalists somehow took over Kazakhstan and/or Kazakhstan develops closer ties to Beijing than to Moscow?
 
If Kazakhstan gets a big head after 1991 and tries to go it alone at some point and try to become the defacto central Asian power they might give Russia the justification to humble them with the bears backhand by "peacekeeping" followed by a referendum. afterward they may reorganize what they can of central Asia into something like the eurasian economic union.
 
What about if a bunch of radical Turkic nationalists somehow took over Kazakhstan and/or Kazakhstan develops closer ties to Beijing than to Moscow?

If it's an attempted coup then you could probably see Russian intervention similar to that when they aided Tajikistan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tajikistani_Civil_War

Or maybe some economic measures if they drifted towards the PRC? It is part of what the consider the near abroad after all
 
What about if a bunch of radical Turkic nationalists somehow took over Kazakhstan and/or Kazakhstan develops closer ties to Beijing than to Moscow?
Russia would probably be more reluctant to do reenact the Sudetenland Crisis now or in the future, given that it'll almost certainly make China hostile to them again.
 
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