If Alexander is known as Francophile/'Nappyphile' would it make any sense to assassinate tsar Paul? I don't think so.
Perhaps surviving Paul makes deal with Napoleon, dividing Europe into French and Russian spheres of influence, Kingdom of Poland is restored from Austrian and Prussian Poland (perhaps even with Prussian Silesia and Pomerania, Oder-Neisse is very practical line as border and neither Napoleon or Paul would care about historical or ethnic borders) as buffer state between French and Russian sphere, either in personal union with Russia or as Romanov secundogeniture under Constantine.
With Paul the love affair with Nappy would be rather tumultuous and unpredictable while with Alexander it could be perhaps less passionate but steadier.
As for the sense involved, it was two-fold: 1st aspect - the British interests which in this case is not served by assassination and 2nd -Paul’s personality, which generated a lot of unhappiness (just think about the horrible idea of forcing a discipline upon the Guards!) and a sense of insecurity even among the people whom he favored (like Palen). In the area of paradeground drill Alexander was a true son of his father (even if he did change the uniforms from Prussian model) but his character was steadier. Anyway, the
expectations were that he would return country to Catherine’s times (which he promised in his manifesto) - one would think that an endemic corruption and general disorder is not something to generate a nostalgia but too many people benefited from them.
On the main subject, Paul
may even object to the idea as a matter of principle: he was sincerely concerned with the issues of justice, legitimacy, etc. OTOH, if handled Maltese-style with a solemn delegation calling upon his knightly nature and <whatever else> in helping to restore the unjustly destroyed Poland (does not apply to the Russian-held territories) and this call is backed by a similar message from his friend Nappy talking about the unjust Austrians (with a reminder that they behaved naughtingly and betrayed Paul’s trust) and Prussians (who could be compensated at the expense of the naughty Brits/Hanover who planned attempt upon his life) then Paul may concede to the idea and borrow one of his sons to serve as a king of Poland.
With Alexander Nappy could probably cut on demagoguery.
