AHC: Richmond falls, CSA continues more than 6 months?

Challenge. With a POD after January 1, 1862 have the Confederacy continue as a viable force for more than 6 months after the fall of Richmond.

(fall defined as Union soldiers able to sleep safely within .5 miles of the Richmond city hall and .5 miles of the Tredegar Iron Works)
 
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Japhy

Banned
If it falls in any situation unlike 1865, with the Confederate Heartland still in CS Hands, and the Armies still intact, the Capital probably just moves to another major city (Charleston, Atlanta, back to Montgomery) and the war continues on.

To assume that Richmond's fall automatically dooms the Confederacy is a mistake. They've painted their war in the colors of the American Revolution, and look how many times the Continental Congress moved that time.
 
Richmond was one of the more industrialized cities which the Confederacy actually controlled, the loss of which would've been quite devastating for the fledgling country. The Union's capture of the Tredegar Iron Works in particular would've robbed the Confederacy of most of its metallurgical faculties, leaving it with very little work with for the production of new armaments or cannons.
 
I think the Confederacy can probably hold 6 months or so after the fall of Richmond as it its soldiers can swipe muskets from dead Yankees and Yankee soldiers can only march so fast. The BIG problem is cannon which is damn hard to capture. Without the Tredegar Iron Works it will be difficult for the South to replace cannon. In the ACW cannon was more useful on defense than offense due to the rifled musket. However the South is mainly on defense and some Union attacks that would be stopped with cannon if the had them will succeed. I give the South at most a year after the fall of Richmond.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
This AHC is pretty simple. Have the Army of the Potomac succeed in the Peninsular Campaign, capturing Richmond sometime during the summer of 1862. This could have been achieved by any number of different PODs (Johnston not being wounded at Seven Pines being one possibility).

At this point, the Confederates have lost control of west and central Tennessee, the lower Mississippi Valley, northern (and now eastern) Virginia, and parts of the Atlantic coast. But they still control the vast majority of their original territory and still possess formidable armies. They could easily have resisted for longer than six months.
 
Richmond was one of the more industrialized cities which the Confederacy actually controlled, the loss of which would've been quite devastating for the fledgling country. The Union's capture of the Tredegar Iron Works in particular would've robbed the Confederacy of most of its metallurgical faculties, leaving it with very little work with for the production of new armaments or cannons.

If Richmond is captured early enough that there is still a place to send it to, and there is enough time to do it, Tredegar could be dismantled, shipped to another city, and reassembled. Confederate factories in Nashville and other cities captured early in the war were treated the same way, mostly ending up in Atlanta or Macon, Georgia. For that matter, most of the Confederate production facilities in Richmond apart from Tredegar (and there were several) were moved there from other locations.

Yes, there would be a time period while the moving and reassembling was being carried out when Confederate production would feel the supply shock. But it wouldn't be permanent.

The reason this wasn't done in OTL is by the time it became apparent that Richmond was going to eventually fall, Atlanta had already fallen and there just really wasn't anyplace left to ship the Tredegar facilities, and most of the rail lines needed to do it were either smoking ruins or in enemy hands.
 
If Richmond is captured early enough that there is still a place to send it to, and there is enough time to do it, Tredegar could be dismantled, shipped to another city, and reassembled. Confederate factories in Nashville and other cities captured early in the war were treated the same way, mostly ending up in Atlanta or Macon, Georgia. For that matter, most of the Confederate production facilities in Richmond apart from Tredegar (and there were several) were moved there from other locations.

Yes, there would be a time period while the moving and reassembling was being carried out when Confederate production would feel the supply shock. But it wouldn't be permanent.

The reason this wasn't done in OTL is by the time it became apparent that Richmond was going to eventually fall, Atlanta had already fallen and there just really wasn't anyplace left to ship the Tredegar facilities, and most of the rail lines needed to do it were either smoking ruins or in enemy hands.


However, DC is no longer vulnerable which frees a HUGE number of troops. Also it will take some time as you said to get back up and going and time is DEFINITELY NOT on the CSA's side. By the time the CSA is back turning out cannon the Union could very well be invading NC.
 
If Richmond falls - two major problems. One is the loss of the Tredegar Works. Now the CSA has zero ability to produce cannon, rifles in any number, and railroad rails and/or iron cladding for ships (this last took away from the CSA's ability to build/rebuild RRs by using the limited capacity for armor rather than rails, w/o Richmond..neither happens). The other problem is that the CSA takes a huge political hit. If the CSA cannot defend its capitol, the credibility the CSA had early on with the UK & France is history, and only the most delusional politicians can expect recognition or aid from Europe. Taking Richmond energizes Union morale and deflates Confederate morale.

As another poster has said, the troops and efforts that went in to fortifying DC can be reduced, and used elsewhere. The fall of Richmond does not end the war, but if the war lasts more than another 6 months it would be surprising. I wonder if Lincoln will release the Emancipation Proclamation after the fall of Richmond - he was waiting for a victory before issuing it so this now happens earlier (before Antietam).
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
If Richmond falls - two major problems. One is the loss of the Tredegar Works. Now the CSA has zero ability to produce cannon, rifles in any number, and railroad rails and/or iron cladding for ships (this last took away from the CSA's ability to build/rebuild RRs by using the limited capacity for armor rather than rails, w/o Richmond..neither happens). The other problem is that the CSA takes a huge political hit. If the CSA cannot defend its capitol, the credibility the CSA had early on with the UK & France is history, and only the most delusional politicians can expect recognition or aid from Europe. Taking Richmond energizes Union morale and deflates Confederate morale.

There is a third major problem which is arguably more important than either of these. If Richmond falls in 1862, the value of Confederate currency will plummet overnight. Inflation rates which IOTL were not reached until 1864 would be reached by late 1862 ITTL, and it was inflation more than anything else which killed the Confederacy.

Moreover, the Confederate government would be entirely unable to float bonds except at absurd interest rates, so the Confederate Treasury would be in even worse shape than it was IOTL.
 
There is a third major problem which is arguably more important than either of these. If Richmond falls in 1862, the value of Confederate currency will plummet overnight. Inflation rates which IOTL were not reached until 1864 would be reached by late 1862 ITTL, and it was inflation more than anything else which killed the Confederacy.

Moreover, the Confederate government would be entirely unable to float bonds except at absurd interest rates, so the Confederate Treasury would be in even worse shape than it was IOTL.


True enough. Confederate currency would soon be worth less than the paper it is printed on.
 
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