You'd have to go ridiculously far back in China's history to make this possible.
Really? IMHO, the Warlord Era came pretty close to fragmenting China; and for much of Chinese history, China has been divided between different Chinese Kingdoms, not truly united. Indeed, if we count Mongolia, Taiwan & Korea as former extensions of the Chinese Empire (as Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh were once extensions of the Mughal Empire) you could argue that present-day China is still just as divided as India today. For a plausible POD in China, how about in 1642, with the Ming Governor of Kaifeng deciding to fight on ITTL instead of giving the desperate order to unleash the 1642 Kaifeng Flood? As such, Li Zicheng has to continue laying siege to the city for another few months before breaking through, and consolidates his gains by declaring himself King of the Shun dynasty in Kaifeng, which becomes the Shun capital (analogy- the Maratha Confederacy).
Without the sack of Beijing, Wu Sangui never defects from the Ming dynasty, and as a result, the Qing have to lay siege to the Great Wall of China for several months before finally managing to break through Shanhai Pass, leaving them far wearier and weaker when they do manage to reach Beijing and sack the city ITTL. As such, the Qing decide to permit the Ming dynasty (under the Chongzhen Emperor's oldest surviving heir) to remain in nominal control of the city, merely forcing the Ming to acknowledge the Qing dynasty's suzerainty over Manchuria, Inner & Outer Mongolia and Liaodong before withdrawing (analogy- the Durrani Empire).
In this manner, the Ming Dynasty collapses in almost exactly the same manner as the Mughal Empire did in OTL India, leaving the door open for the Europeans' 'China Companies' to back different players, assert increasingly greater influence over them, assimilate them as vassals and eventually seize control over vast swathes of their territories in the same way that the East India Companies did in OTL's India. Eventually, one company (probably the British given their naval strength, but you never know) comes out on top, and reunifies most of China under the rule of their Imperial Cháo.
The Warlord era was actually pretty short, the real, actual warlord era lasted roughly from 1916-1927. The defacto end of the warlord era came in 1949 even though the country went through one of the largest, bloodiest wars against a foreign enemy in the history of the world.Really? IMHO, the Warlord Era came pretty close to fragmenting China
Mongolia, Taiwan and Korea was never part of China at any point, the Qing Empire maybe, but never China.and for much of Chinese history, China has been divided between different Chinese Kingdoms, not truly united. Indeed, if we count Mongolia, Taiwan & Korea as former extensions of the Chinese Empire (as Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh were once extensions of the Mughal Empire) you could argue that present-day China is still just as divided as India today.
Ok, but any Chinese government is going to be highly centralized, if weak. Even the really weak dynasties like the Song took on this characteristic. A Confederacy like structure isn't gonna happen.For a plausible POD in China, how about in 1642, with the Ming Governor of Kaifeng deciding to fight on ITTL instead of giving the desperate order to unleash the 1642 Kaifeng Flood? As such, Li Zicheng has to continue laying siege to the city for another few months before breaking through, and consolidates his gains by declaring himself King of the Shun dynasty in Kaifeng, which becomes the Shun capital (analogy- the Maratha Confederacy).
Not going to happen, you either take the Dragon Throne, or you get kicked out in a generation or two.Without the sack of Beijing, Wu Sangui never defects from the Ming dynasty, and as a result, the Qing have to lay siege to the Great Wall of China for several months before finally managing to break through Shanhai Pass, leaving them far wearier and weaker when they do manage to reach Beijing and sack the city ITTL. As such, the Qing decide to permit the Ming dynasty (under the Chongzhen Emperor's oldest surviving heir) to remain in nominal control of the city, merely forcing the Ming to acknowledge the Qing dynasty's suzerainty over Manchuria, Inner & Outer Mongolia and Liaodong before withdrawing (analogy- the Durrani Empire).
Again, not going to happen. China has only two real centers of power, the north and the south. A fragmentation on the scale of India have never lasted more than a decade or two since 223 BC.In this manner, the Ming Dynasty collapses in almost exactly the same manner as the Mughal Empire did in OTL India, leaving the door open for the Europeans' 'China Companies' to back different players, assert increasingly greater influence over them, assimilate them as vassals and eventually seize control over vast swathes of their territories in the same way that the East India Companies did in OTL's India. Eventually, one company (probably the British given their naval strength, but you never know) comes out on top, and reunifies most of China under the rule of their Imperial Cháo.